As put by Bloomberg in an article by Jeanna Smialek dated April 10, 2015 where she said: ” Get ready for a new economic order by 2030 / 2050. In the world 15 years from now, the U.S. will be far less dominant, several emerging markets will catapult into prominence, and some of the largest European economies will be slipping behind.”
A new economic order by 2030 / 2050 ?
Last week an article on the same subject and written by Lianna Brinded, Markets Editor, Business Insider and published in collaboration with Business Insider on Thursday 9 February 2017 by the WEF goes like below.
A prediction: the world’s most powerful economies in 2030
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), one of the world’s largest professional-services firms, just released its predictions for the most powerful economies in the world by 2030.
The report, titled “The long view: how will the global economic order change by 2050?” ranked 32 countries by their projected global gross domestic product by purchasing power parity (PPP).
PPP is used by macroeconomists to determine the economic productivity and standards of living among countries across a certain time period.
While PwC’s findings show some of the same countries right near the top of the list in 13 years, they also have numerous economies slipping or rising massively by 2030 [ . . . ]
The PwC Report Key findings
This report sets out our latest long-term global growth projections to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 85% of world GDP.
Key results of our analysis (as summarised also in the accompanying video) include:
- The world economy could more than double in size by 2050, far outstripping population growth, due to continued technology-driven productivity improvements
- Emerging markets (E7) could grow around twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average
- As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th)
- The US could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27’s share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050
- UK could be down to 10th place by 2050, France out of the top 10 and Italy out of the top 20 as they are overtaken by faster growing emerging economies like Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam respectively
- But emerging economies need to enhance their institutions and their infrastructure significantly if they are to realise their long-term growth potential.
Explore the World in 2050
View the infographics below for highlights of our GDP projections and explore the results further using our interactive data tool.
Further details are provided in our summary report, full report and slide pack.
Tweet this: PwC #World2050 report projects China and India to be the two largest economies in the world by 2050
Key projections
Challenges for policymakers
Our analysis also identifies a number of key challenges for policy-makers, including:
- Avoid a slide back into protectionism, which history suggests would be bad for global growth in the long run
- Ensuring that the potential benefits of globalisation are shared more equally across society
- Developing new green technologies to ensure that long-term global growth is environmentally sustainable
Please download our full report for more in-depth analysis of these policy issues.
Opportunities for business – winning in emerging markets
Our report, which can be downloaded in full below, also considers the opportunities for business:
- As emerging markets mature, they will become less attractive as low cost manufacturing bases but more attractive as consumer and business-to-business (B2B) markets
- But international companies need strategies that are flexible enough to adapt to local customer preferences and rapidly evolving local market dynamics
- Since emerging markets can be volatile, international investors also need to be patient enough to ride out the short-term economic and political cycles in these countries
Please also take a look at the research of our Growth Markets Centre for detailed examples of how companies can succeed in emerging markets.
