Situation of the Automotive Industry in the MENA

Situation of the Automotive Industry in the MENA

Automotive LOGISTICS MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA in an article titled MENA: Leading the way in innovation by Victoria Johns on 27 November 2019 gives us a clear picture of the prevailing situation of the automotive industry in the MENA region.

While it has some infrastructure and regulatory obstacles to overcome, the automotive industry in the Middle East and Africa (MENA) region is developing fast, driven by investment and innovation, as delegates heard at the ALMENA conference in Dubai last week.


Despite a sustained period of decline over the last few years affected by a fall in oil prices and geopolitical strife, the Middle East and Africa is fast becoming a region of automotive and supply chain opportunity. Carmakers such as VW, Toyota, GM, Groupe PSA and Mercedes-Benz are investing in local assembly, ranging from North African countries including Morocco, Algeria and Egypt, to sub-Saharan markets such as Rwanda, Ethiopia, Kenya and Ghana. There are also some notable logistics developments there and in the Middle East.

According to figures from IHS Markit, light vehicle sales in the Middle East and Africa are to increase by 6% in 2020 to around 3.5m, supported by ongoing recovery in Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries. That is still below 4.65m units sold in 2015 but at that point Middle East sales were helped by increases in Saudi Arabia and Iran, the latter of which was seeing an (albeit brief) resurgence after sanctions were temporarily lifted. That said, by 2025 annual new light vehicle sales across the region are set to hit more than 5.3m, according to IHS projections.

Saudi Arabia already accounts for about 40% of total vehicles sold in the Middle East and IHS Markit forecasts annual sales could reach over 800,000 beyond units by 2030. Contributing factors including the recovery in price per barrel of oil and to a lesser extent the lifting of the ban on female drivers suggest sustained growth is expected to start in the next two years.

Countries within the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) have established a national employment challenge to employ more local workers, the so-called ‘Gulfization’ policy, which is increasing labour opportunities in the area, something also fuelled by the exodus of foreign workers and the need for investment in local skills and talent.

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Electric cars are here – but we’ll still need fuel for a long time

Electric cars are here – but we’ll still need fuel for a long time

David Reiner, Cambridge Judge Business School and Ilkka Hannula, University of Cambridge, say that Electric cars are here – but we’ll still need fuel for a long time.

An interesting interval notably for all those industries already devoting billions of Dollars to building these E-cars, thus affecting not only the whole world’s manufacturing and energy generation industries alike but also the planet’s climate. But this obviously not happening overnight, is somehow phased as described in this article.

Many vehicles can’t just be powered by battery. MuchMania/Shutterstock

Electric cars are often seen as one of the great hopes for tackling climate change. With new models arriving in showrooms, major carmakers retooling for an electric future, and a small but growing number of consumers eager to convert from gas guzzlers, EVs appear to offer a way for us to decarbonise with little change to our way of life.

Yet there is a danger that fixating on electric cars leaves a large blind spot. Electrification would be very expensive for the lumbering lorries that haul goods across continents or is currently technically prohibitive for long-distance air travel.

Beyond all the enthusiasm surrounding electrification, currently light-duty passenger vehicles only comprise 50% of total global demand for energy in the transportation sector compared to 28% for heavy road vehicles, 10% for air, 9% for sea and 2% for rail.

Put simply, the current focus on electrifying passenger vehicles – though welcome – represents only part of the answer. For most other segments, fuels will be needed for the foreseeable future. And even for cars, electric vehicles are not a cure-all.

The unfortunate truth is that, on their own, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) cannot solve what we call the “100 EJ problem”. Demand for transport services are expected to rise dramatically in the coming decades. So the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that we need to significantly reduce the amount of energy each vehicle uses just to keep total global energy demand in the transport sector roughly flat at current levels of 100 exajoules (EJ) by 2050. More than half of that 100 EJ is still expected to come from petroleum products and, by then, the share of light-duty vehicles in transport sector energy demand is expected to decline from 50% to 34%.

Electric cars don’t suit every journey. Nick Starichenko/Shutterstock

The vast majority of existing passenger trips can be accommodated by existing battery electric vehicles so, for many consumers, buying one will be an easy decision (as costs come down). But for those who frequently take very long journeys, the focus also needs to be on lower-carbon fuels.

Petroleum substitutes could extend sustainable transport to heavier vehicles and those seeking longer range, while using the existing refuelling infrastructure and vehicle fleet. Whereas battery electric vehicles will impose wider system costs (for example, the charging infrastructure needed to connect millions of new electric vehicles to the grid), all the transition costs of sustainable fuel substitutes are in the fuels themselves.

Our recent study is part of a renewed focus on synthetic fuels or synfuels (fuels converted from feedstocks other than petroleum). Synfuels were first made on an industrial scale in the 1920s by turning coal into liquid hydrocarbons using the so-called Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, named after its original German inventors. But using coal as a feedstock produces far dirtier fuel than even conventional petroleum-based fuels.

One possible route to carbon-neutral synthetic fuels would be to use woody residues and wastes as feedstock to create synthetic biofuels with less impact on the environment and food production than crop-based biofuels. Another option would be to produce synfuels from CO₂ and water using low-carbon electricity. But producing such “electrofuels” would need either a power system that is very low cost and ultra-low-carbon (such as those of Iceland or Quebec) or require dedicated sources of zero-carbon electricity that have high availability throughout the year.

Pilot plants

Synthetic biofuels and electrofuels both have the potential to deliver sustainable fuels at scale, but these efforts are still at the demonstration stage. Audi opened a €20M e-gas (electro fuel) plant in 2013 that produces 3.2 MW of synthetic methane from 6 MW of electricity. The €150M Swedish GoBiGas plant was commissioned in 2014 and produced synthetic biomethane at a scale of 20 MW using 30 MW of biomass.

Despite the many virtues of carbon-neutral synthetic fuels though, most commercial-scale projects are currently on hold. This is due to the high investment cost of pioneer process plants combined with a lack of sufficiently strong government policies to make them economically viable and share the risk of scale-up.

Government and industry attempts to encourage people to buy electric vehicles aren’t a problem in themselves. Our concern is that an exclusive focus on electrification may make solving the 100 EJ problem impossible. It is too early to tell which, if any, sustainable fuels will emerge successful and so the most pressing need is to scale up production from the current demonstration stage. If not, when our attention finally turns away from glossy electric car advertisements in a few years, we will find ourselves at a standing start in addressing the rest of the problem.

David Reiner, University Senior Lecturer in Technology Policy, Cambridge Judge Business School and Ilkka Hannula, Associate Researcher, Energy Policy Research Group, University of Cambridge

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The UAE and Hydrogen its power revolution

The UAE and Hydrogen its power revolution

Industrialists the world over say the gas can become a crucial part of the global energy mix – and faster than many people might imagine

UAE in prime position as hydrogen power revolution accelerates

By Satish Kumar / The National.

Updated: February 28, 2019.

Toyota’s hydrogen fuel cell car the Mirai. Such vehicles may power a sea-change in the use of the gas.

An energy source that can power everything from mass transport by land, sea and air to heavy industry, that does no harm to the environment and is practically limitless sounds like an ecologist’s Utopian dream.

But it’s no dream – and the revolution is already underway. Its name? Hydrogen – the most abundant element in the universe.

Industrialists the world over say the gas can become a crucial part of the global energy mix – and faster than many people might imagine. “I think the real test is when will the man in the street starts to recognise that hydrogen is part of the energy mix,” Ronnie Chalmers, vice president of the French industrial gases’ supplier Air Liquide’s Africa, Middle East and India hub, tells The National. “I think that will come before 2030, at different places and different times around the world.”

Ronnie Chalmers. Chris Whiteoak/The National

The Hydrogen Council says that by 2030 the gas will be a significant energy player with millions of hydrogen-powered vehicles on the road. Launched at the World Economic Forum 2017, in Davos, Hydrogen Council founders include Air Liquide, Toyota, BMW, Alstom and Airbus, among other big names.

The council believes the hydrogen sector will carry similar financial weight to the hydrocarbons industry with revenues worth some $2.5 trillion annually by 2050 and jobs for more than 30 million people globally. By comparison, the oil and gas market had total revenues of $1.97tn worldwide in 2017, according to BusinessWire’s Global Oil & Gas Industry Guide 2013-2017.

The council’s view may be a little optimistic, Robin Mills, the chief executive of the consultancy Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis, tells The National. “Oil today is a $2.2tn business, gas say $0.5tn, coal $0.8tn,” he says. “So $2.5tn for hydrogen looks like a stretch. But it could certainly be a very major business.”

The mass implementation of hydrogen as a transport power source is already taking place. Hydrogen fuel cells power electric forklift trucks around the world and helps businesses such as Amazon, Ikea and others increase their production hours and reduce operating costs. The fuel cells do not need recharging like traditional battery-powered forklifts – hydrogen powered forklifts can be fully fuelled in under five minutes.

Hydrogen has been used in industry for decades such as in refining, treating metals and food processing but it is the acceleration of renewable energy that has spurred the multinationals’ interest – and Air Liquide sees the UAE as an ideal destination to further the hydrogen cause.

As a pioneer in renewable energy, particularly solar, the Emirates is committed to developing its green energy economy and, in part, this is why Air Liquide recently undertook a study in collaboration with Al Futtaim Toyota – which distributes Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai vehicle in the UAE – and Khalifa University to look at strategies to grow the hydrogen industry here.

This month, the first solar-driven hydrogen electrolysis facility in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region was inaugurated in Dubai.

Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, chairman of the Dubai Supreme Council of Energy and chairman of the Expo 2020 Dubai Higher Committee, broke ground on the project, a collaboration between Dubai Electricity and Water Authority, Expo 2020 Dubai and Siemens. It will be built at Dewa’s outdoor testing facilities in the Research and Development Centre at the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai, state media agency WAM reported.

Mr Chalmers adds that the UAE has all the right ambitions regarding decarbonisation in the economy and “it was easy for us to say to Al Futtaim, ‘You have the same problem as us, you have the product, you need somebody to build fuel stations, we need somebody to market the cars'”.

A Toyota Mirai hydrogen-powered car. Reuters

Speaking at a press event in December to showcase hydrogen mass transport potential, Saud Abbasi, managing director of Al Futtaim Toyota, said: “In our next chapter, and in line with the UAE Vision 2021, we believe that Mirai [hydrogen fuel cell-electric vehicle] and any other FCEV in the future, once adopted on a large national scale, can actively help the UAE in its march towards serious climate action thanks to the many practical benefits it presents such as zero pollutants, zero behavioural change, long mileage and minimal hydrogen filling time of three to five minutes.”

So far, Al Futtaim in partnership with Air Liquide has opened a hydrogen station, the first in the Middle East, at Al Badia, Dubai Festival City. A second station is set to start construction this year in Masdar City, in collaboration with Adnoc, Masdar and Al Futtaim.

Hydrogen refilling station in Al Badia. Reem Mohammed/The National

Air Liquide is also pushing the use of renewables as a source of hydrogen.

“The ultimate goal is to have 100 per cent green hydrogen – the definition of green hydrogen is that it comes from green energy. This could be solar, wind, biogas,” says Olivier Boucat, head of Air Liquide’s H2 Mobility unit.

Olivier Boucat. Chris Whiteoak/The National

The company admits it is not at that stage yet. Today, Air Liquide uses a mix of green and “brown” hydrogen – where methane sourced from coal or natural gas is processed to release hydrogen – producing a lot of CO2 as a byproduct.

But it aims to rapidly ramp up its share of green hydrogen produced by using water electrolysis and renewable sources of electricity, such as solar in the UAE, which does not emit CO2. In January, Air Liquide announced it had acquired an 18.6 per cent stake in Canadian company Hydrogenics Corporation for $20 million, which makes electrolysis hydrogen production equipment and fuel cells.

Electrolysis works by passing electricity through water which splits it into hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen is collected, transported and stored either in gas form or as a liquid super-chilled to minus 253°C – which, incidentally, is the form in which it is used to power space rockets. The oxygen can be used in other industrial processes.

Toyota’s Mirai has an electric motor over the front wheels, fuel cell under the front seats and a high pressure hydrogen tank beneath the rears. Courtesy Toyota

To power a car, for example, the hydrogen runs from the fuel tank into a fuel cell, where it re-combines with oxygen from the air, producing energy as electricity, rather than explosive energy as in an internal combustion engine. The resulting electricity is released in a controlled manner to power the engine, the same kind of engine an electric battery car uses.

But there is another significant difference between an electric battery vehicle and an FCEV.

“The heavier the car is the more energy it consumes,” says Pascal Schvester, Air Liquide’s director of the Middle East and India Industrial Merchant unit. A high-end electric vehicle (EV) today needs about 700kg of battery, which is maybe a third of the weight of the vehicle, he says. “That is something you do not have with a hydrogen fuel cell car – in which you have, say, 6kg of hydrogen.”

Pascal Schvester. Chris Whiteoak/The National

Currently, however, green hydrogen is prohibitively expensive to produce. But as countries move away from hydrocarbons as a fuel, economies of scale will bring the price down. “At the moment it’s better to have a large facility and then transport the hydrogen as a gas but when the volumes get big enough it will be better to transport as a liquid,” says Mr Boucat.

“This is happening already in California; we are just commissioning the first liquid hydrogen plant to provide liquid hydrogen to a station.”

With construction to start later this year, at a cost to build of around $150m, the plant will have the capacity to generate nearly 30 tonnes of hydrogen per day – enough to fuel 35,000 hydrogen-powered vehicles. The facility is designed to accelerate the deployment of new hydrogen FCEVs – cars and fleet vehicles such as taxis, trucks and buses and trams, as is happening in Europe.

However, hydrogen’s cost as a fuel is unlikely to reach commercial parity with petrol, diesel or electric battery power, although price is not likely to be the determining factor for its uptake, according to Mr Mills. “I think hydrogen will always be more expensive than petrol or diesel, but the reasons for its adoption would be that it’s zero-carbon, clean at the point of use, and (potentially) indefinitely renewable. The question is whether it can compete cost-wise with electric vehicles which are improving rapidly.

“Hydrogen’s at quite an immature stage, so this really depends on how much support it gets to build scale and bring down costs.”

Mr Mills says that the large-scale vehicle sector is most suited to hydrogen as a transport fuel. “Probably it will have to find its role in long-distance, heavy-duty transport like trucks, rail, shipping and perhaps aviation,” he says.

However, the more down-to-earth fleet vehicle sector is Air Liquide’s main focus in the UAE. “We’re not targeting the super cars like Jeremy Clarkson might drive on Top Gear,”says Mr Boucat, but he says “the aeroplane would be the last goal for us”.

Air Liquide’s Mr Schvester also points out that regarding fleets “you don’t need to have a massive network of hydrogen filling stations because in this case you are dealing with vehicles that are commuting from one place to the other on a fixed basis” so fuelling stations can be centralised.

Globally, Japan is generally seen as the leader so far in hydrogen take-up. The country’s Basic Hydrogen Strategy, released in December, 2017, reiterated its commitment to pioneer the world’s first “Hydrogen Society”. The strategy primarily aims to achieve cost parity of hydrogen with competing fuels, such as petrol in transport and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) in power generation.

“By 2030 Japan will start to import hydrogen in liquid form to produce energy for various applications in the country,” says Mr Boucat. “When we reach that point we are at a very large scale.”

Last month, South Korea announced a major investment plan to go the same way. By 2040, the country aims to increase the cumulative total of fuel cell vehicles to 6.2 million, raise the number of hydrogen refuelling stations to 1,200 (from just 14 today) and also boost the supply of power-generating fuel cells.

Through these measures, the government hopes to create 420,000 jobs and $38.35 billion in value added to the economy each year by 2040.

China now invests about 100bn yuan a year (Dh54.09bn) in hydrogen energy, according to Professor Zong Qiang Mao of Tsinghua University’s Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, who adds that the country has the capacity to produce about 170,000 FCEVs per year. It’s likely to become a huge market. “I predict that in about 10 years we will also be the largest market in the world for hydrogen energy,” Mr Zong told cH2ange, an organisation dedicated to promoting the hydrogen economy and which is supported by Air Liquide.

Germany in September opened its 50th hydrogen filling station. With the ramp-up of the number of fuel cell vehicles, another 300 hydrogen refuelling stations are planned over the next two or three years.

In Paris, the Societe du Taxi Electrique Parisien has a total of 100 hydrogen-powered vehicles in its fleet, and is aiming to have 600 such vehicles by 2020. In the UK, meanwhile, the government announced last year police cars and taxis will be among nearly 200 new hydrogen powered vehicles as part of a project that has won £8.8m (Dh42.4m) in funding from the Department for Transport to increase the number of hydrogen cars on the roads.

Air Liquide believes such developments are just the start.

“I think within a few years we’ll see more [hydrogen-powered] trains, taxis, buses and trucks and the man in the street will think, ‘ah yes, it’s just another hydrogen vehicle,'” says Mr Chalmers.

“We got used to LNG trucks, we’re getting used to EVs and next will be hydrogen.”

By 2040, 54% of all new car sales will be for Electric

By 2040, 54% of all new car sales will be for Electric

According to Bloomberg, by 2040, 54% of all new car sales will be for Electric (EVs). Millions of them will then take a good portion out of oil demand and remove millions of barrels of transport fuel every day. It adds that the most significant factor in the EV surge is what’s under the hood, i.e. lithium-ion batteries.
An International Monetary Fund blog post by Christian Bogmans and Lama Kiyasseh dated August 13, 2018, reveals some basics on the sought out Electric Vehicle (EV).

Chart of the Week: A Bumpy Road Ahead for Electric Cars



Electric car charging station in Berlin, Germany: prices for lithium and cobalt—key ingredients in rechargeable batteries—are rising due limited supply and growing demand for electric cars (photo: Jens Kalaene/Newscom)

The surge in demand for electric cars has been fueled in part by the falling costs of lithium-ion batteries—driven by technological progress—which power everything from electric cars to smartphones.  

Lithium and cobalt are critical components in batteries for electric cars. The rapid growth in the demand for rechargeable batteries has now driven up these raw material prices, and given rise to concerns about potential cobalt and lithium scarcities that could slow the rollout of electric vehicles.

The price of cobalt is expected to remain high due to limited supply and growing demand.

The price of lithium carbonate increased by more than 30 percent in 2017. Even more staggering is the upswing in the price of cobalt, which has risen by 150 percent between September 2016 and July 2018. And as shown in our Chart of the Week from the April World Economic Outlook, cobalt price booms are not without historical precedent.

Unlike lithium, the price of cobalt is expected to remain high due to limited supply and growing demand. In 2016, more than 50 percent of the global supply of cobalt came from the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Cobalt prices have also been volatile due to insecure supply chains. The chart also shows that since 1915 there have been four price boom episodes. Those during 1978–81 and 1995–96 elicited sharp responses: world production grew by 54.1 and 36.1 percent in 1983 and 1995, respectively, significantly higher than the 50-year average of 4.8 percent. The uptick in prices since 2016 and futures prices for 2018–19 suggest that history may be repeating itself and production could yet again accelerate, at least temporarily. Indeed, cobalt prices have come down somewhat in recent months, following strong production increases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and reduced demand from China.

Several developments could, however, limit this price volatility. These include increased recycling of cobalt and new primary production mining techniques.

Perhaps most important, battery technology is continuing to improve and could bring the surge in cobalt prices to a halt. One of the leading alternatives to the lithium-ion battery concept—the solid-state battery—would mean smaller and more-energy-dense batteries that do not need cobalt.

Continued research and innovation in this area could spur further progress in the development of electric vehicles and portable electronics.

Related Links:

Chart of the Week: Electric Takeover in Transportation


UAE’s latest Mass Transport Dream System

UAE’s latest Mass Transport Dream System

All the GCC’s media reported recently that the UAE’s latest mass transport dream system being undertaken by the Hyperloop Transportation Technologies informing that progress of the current work ongoing in Toulouse, France, is quite substantive and not far from completion. This is about engineering and fabrication of a set of tubes, that will make the core element in this new mode of transport of both people and freight. These steel tubes with an interior diameter of 4 meter, once linearly assembled above and below ground into a sort of giant pipeline would allow passenger capsules and shipping containers to travel along it in record time.

Meanwhile, the UAE that is adopting this technology is also reported to reflect on the quality of life of its citizens and will still be trying to further enhance their happiness levels.  

“50 percent of government transactions on the federal level will be conducted using blockchain technology by 2021.”

Blockchain would seem to be the new buzzword as put by Sheikh Mohammed himself who added saying that the adoption of blockchain would allow the government not only to face future challenges but also to contribute in saving unnecessary expenditure.

Another notable novelty is that of Dubai trialling the use of digital number plates that can alert authorities if there is an accident. We reproduce this article of Jessica Miley for Interesting Engineering of April 11th, 2018.

Dubai Set to Test Digital Number Plates on Cars in the City

Dubai Set to Test Digital Number Plates on Cars in the City / Pexels

Dubai is set to launch digital number plates as part of a trial that will also see cars fitted with GPS and transmitters. The trialed number plates will also be able to alert emergency services if the car is in an accident. 


Dubai is determined to become a global leader in technology and is implementing a range of trials to test emerging technologies in everyday use. Drivers lucky to trial the digital number plates will receive a range of benefits. 

The number plates not only enable police or ambulance to find the car if there has been any sort of accident, the plates can also monitor traffic conditions and communicate that to other drivers. 

Digital number plates can make parking a breeze

The digital number plates can also be linked to the individual’s bank account so that all parking and fines are automatically deducted. Sultan Abdullah al-Marzouqi, the head of the Vehicle Licensing Department at Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA), says the plates will make life smoother and easier for drivers in Dubai. 

The small digital panel can also update with a message if necessary to alert or warn other drivers about changing conditions. The trial period will see the plates put the test in Dubai’s hot dry climate. 

The trial will start next month and end in November when a decision will be made about the ongoing use of the plates. Details of the cost of the possible plate rollout are not yet known. Sultan Abdullah says the financial details will only be able to be determined once the trial ends. 

Critics of the plates question how much knowledge about an individual’s whereabouts the government should have. If every car is fitted with the plates, then the location of every person connected to the government is basically known by the authorities at all times. 

Dubai wants to be a leader in emerging technologies particularly related to transport. The 3-million person city hopes to have self-driving cars accounting for s a quarter of journeys by 2030.

Police force could enforce from the air

Dubai city authorities have announced their desire to use drone taxis in the city as the possible method to overcome heavy traffic congestion. They are also planning a Hyperloop system between downtown Dubai and the United Arab Emirates capital Abu Dhabi. 

The Hyperloop would cut the 120km journey between the two cities down to just 12 minutes.

The rapidly growing city also announced it is investigating the possible use of flying hoverbike drones for its police force. The Dubai police force has outlined plans to add a bunch of the Russian designed Hoversurf Scorpion 3 to the team for both manned and unmanned missions. 

The force made the announcement at GITEX, the largest technology expo in the Gulf region. The futuristic devices can fly with a pilot at up to 70kmh and in their unmanned mode can reach top speeds of 100 kmh. Unfortunately, the hoverbikes only have a range of about 20-25 minutes and the batteries take about three hours to fully charge.

 More reading on Dubai are in:

Urgency to review the current Algerian industrial policy

Urgency to review the current Algerian industrial policy

There is, in view of the high number of tabled demands, an urgency to review the current Algerian industrial policy. It concerns all those car assembly plants. 

The automotive sector is experiencing restructuring, mergers and relocations of large groups, with high production capacities. In the face of all these global changes, what is the profitability threshold for all the Algerian car assembly mini-projects?

The national fleet is 8.4 million of vehicles in 2016, of which more than 65% are tourist vehicles according to the Ministry of Transport giving an average of 1 vehicle for 7 citizens in 2016 against 5.7 for 2015 and 4.75 for 2014. About 53% of this park has an average age of less than 10 years, while 37% are over 20 years old. More exactly according to the ONS, the official statistical body cited by the Algerian Press Service, the national fleet had 5,986,181 vehicles at end 2016, compared with 5,683,156 vehicles at end 2015, up 5.33%, corresponding to an increase of 303,025 units. According to the Ministry of Energy, by end of 2016, Algeria would use nearly 15 million tons of road fuels of which more than 350,000 tons of LPG. There are also several questions to which any coherent economic policy must respond in order to avoid the failure of many of the manufacturers who would have in the meantime reaped huge profits to the detriment of the Treasury. 

Car assembly plants set within global changes

So, what is the future when according to some analysts, the size of the Chinese car market, not to mention India, if one remains in the current consumption model, should be multiplied by ten. The experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided the picture of a World park of 2.9 billion passenger cars by 2050; this vision starting from the assumption of an increase in household income especially from emerging countries especially those with large populations such as Russia, India or China.

So about 77.83 million cars should have been sold in 2017, against 74.38 million in 2016 according to international estimates. Meanwhile, world production of cars in 2015 was 90.68 billion of which

  1. China: 24,503,326 vehicles (+ 3.3%), –
  2. United States: 12,100,095 vehicles (+ 3.8%), –
  3. Japan: 9,278,238 Vehicles (-5.1%), –
  4. Germany: 6,033,164 vehicles (+ 2.1%), –
  5. South Korea: 4,555,957 vehicles (+ 0.7%), –
  6. India: 4,125,744 vehicles (+ 7.3%), –
  7. Mexico: 3,565,469 vehicles (+ 5.9%), –
  8. Spain: 2,733,201 vehicles (+ 13.7%), –
  9. Brazil: 2,429,463 Vehicles (-22.8%), –
  10. Canada: 2,283,474 Vehicles (-4.6%), –
  11. France: 1,970,000 vehicles (+ 8.2%), –
  12. Thailand: 1,915,420 vehicles (+ 1.9%), –
  13. United Kingdom: 1,682,156 vehicles (+ 5.2%), –
  14. Russia: 1,384,399 Vehicles (-26.6%), –
  15. Turkey: 1,358,796 vehicles (+ 16.1%), –
  16. Czech Republic: 1,303,603 vehicles (+ 4.2%), –
  17. Indonesia: 1,098,780 Vehicles (-15.4%), –
  18. Italy: 1,014,223 vehicles (+ 45.3%), –
  19. Slovakia: 1,000,001 Vehicles (+ 3.0%),
  20. Iran: 982,337 vehicles (-9.9%).

So, the international constraints for Algeria are there. The situation of the global car market is evolving through being an oligopolistic market, depending on purchasing power, infrastructure and the possibility of substitution of other modes of transport, in particular the collective specific to each country according to its transport policy, having known since the crisis of October 2008 major upheavals, mergers succeeding takeovers and various equity acquisitions. Currently, the largest multinationals are General Motors despite its recent restructuring, closely followed by Volkswagen and Nissan, which since its alliance with the French manufacturer Renault, Chrysler, FIAT, Honda, Mitsubishi and Mazda share the limelight of the top six global manufacturers, all of which have a production capacity of over four million vehicles, accounting for 61 percent of the global automotive market, followed by South Korean Hyundai, Daewoo, Kia; Sang-Yang and Samsung have joined the ranks of independent builders, able to finance, design and produce their own vehicles and that European multinational companies are the most Important manufacturers of spare parts and the largest manufacturers of trucks, including Mercedes-Benz and Volvo. In the rest of the world, most car manufacturers are subsidiaries of American, Japanese and European manufacturers. In countries like Malaysia, China and India, production is managed by local companies, but always with the support of large foreign groups. We observe two opposite tendencies that are happening at the same time: The location of the production in certain geographical areas and on certain countries and the relocation; And for what is The location of world car production, it focuses on the Regional over three Areas: Europe, North America and Asia. In addition, on each of them the manufacturing is located on some Countries; In Europe, the main manufacturers are Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Italy, all belonging to the European Union. In North America, production is mainly concentrated on the United States, and in Asia it is in Japan and South Korea and for world exports of automobiles, the concentration is even higher, since it is limited Mainly in two areas : Europe and Asia. And that the near future with the loss of competitiveness of some countries for the benefit of some emerging countries (Russia, India, China, Brazil) we should witness the reorganization of world production of vehicles in relation to the levels of training of The size of the factories and with the research carried out by the motor companies and clearly, the factories which will maintain themselves on each country will be the most competitive, the priorities of the leaders of the car manufacturers being thus: technology and innovation with notably automation, especially in Japan, whose labor cost is about ten times higher than China’s, ethics and corporate governance, collaborative approach, best strategies for success, environment and globalization. Future technological prospects taking into account the new Ecological Challenge, (hybrid, electric cars) taking into account the new model of energy consumption which is slowly in place, the crisis of October 2008 foreshadowing important Strategic and economic upheavals, as China is on the move to become the world leader in Clean cars All categories thus taking advantage of the first plans “Greens” of the United States, Europe and Japan. In the short term, we are moving towards optimising the operation of petrol and diesel engines, with a reduction of 20/30% of the consumption, because for electric cars, the lithium resources for the famous lithium-ion batteries are Limited and that electric motors require magnets that are also manufactured with rare metals, a market of 70/80 million vehicles per year that cannot absorb large Volumes in electric cars and that for another ten years the engines Classics should remain in the majority. To make things even less amenable, the US will slap a tax on cars made on the continent if the European Union (EU) retaliates against its recently adopted tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium.

To be continued shortly.

Electric Cars and falling Renewable Energy prices

Electric Cars and falling Renewable Energy prices

Published on Monday, October 23, 2017 by Common Dreams, this article by Jessica Corbett, staff writer refer to analyses that show how demand for electric cars and falling renewable energy prices could take down oil and gas industry. Here it is republished with compliments to each the author and publisher.  The bearing of such transition would of course have heavy consequences on all of the MENA countries, petro-economies or not. But this is another story, which could make another interesting article. 

The cost of solar energy technology is expected to fall within the next decade, giving a boost to the industry. (Photo: Oregon Department of Transportation/flickr/cc)


Electric Cars and Surging Solar Spell Market Doom for Fossil Fuels

The cost of solar energy technology is expected to fall within the next decade, giving a boost to the industry. (Photo: Oregon Department of Transportation/flickr/cc)

As an increasing number of nations make plans for banning gas and diesel vehicles within the coming decades, and drivers gain an awareness of the benefits associated with electric vehicles, researchers are predicting notable consequences for dirty energy sources as the public shifts toward favouring renewable alternatives.

“Post-2025, that’s where electric car sales take off. The further you go into the future, the more it’s electric cars,” Alan Gelder, a senior analyst for the research group Wood Mackenzie, told the Guardian. “If cities began banning cars with a combustion engine, that would rapidly accelerate the switch to electric vehicles.”

Drivers transitioning to electric vehicles out of necessity, because of such bans—which multiple European nations plan to implement in the next 15-25 years—and efforts by governments to increase fuel efficiency regulations, is only part of what is fuelling the blossoming electric vehicle market.

Auto manufacturers are also taking cues from the increased demand due to bans and enhanced regulations as well as consumer desire for more environmentally friendly vehicles, as Business Insider detailed in May.

These efforts by governments to limit emissions and by automakers to meet the rising demand for electic vehicles are expected to substantially impact the oil and gas industry in the coming years.

Wood Mackenzie estimates global gasoline prices will peak then start to fall by 2030, though Gelder posits “the ripples of gasoline’s plateau would be felt much earlier,” as fossil fuel companies take fewer investment risks once demand for gas ebbs.

“While gasoline will peak first,” the newspaper notes, “the analysts expect total oil demand to plateau about 2035, as growth is hit by climate change policies and developing world economies maturing.”


Meanwhile, the oil and gas industry is also taking a hit from the solar energy market—which is booming in the U.S. and elsewhere, and is expected to continue doing well over the next decade. The head of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) told Reuters the industry expects the costs of solar power to fall a notable amount over the next 10 year.

“In the next decade, the cost of (utility scale) solar could fall by 60 percent or more,” IRENA director general Adnan Amin said.

The Trump administration is currently weighing whether to increase taxes on imported solar materials, after the U.S. International Trade Commission determined in September that cheap imports had been harmful to U.S.-based solar companies.

Amin criticized the possible increased taxation as short-sighted, considering the growing global demand for solar products and renewable alternatives to oil and gas.

“It’s not always the best strategy to try to protect your industry and have high prices,” Amin said, “because in the long-term what you want to do is drive down the cost of energy.”

The internal combustion engine is dead, long live the electric car.

The internal combustion engine is dead, long live the electric car.

Tesla 3 is being marketed worldwide as the model that will per The Guardian finally make electric cars “mainstream”. But more recently, Tesla drew the global media’s attention to the UAE, a region well known to be reliant on anything to do with fossil fuel, in a similar attempt that is to sell electric cars to the local gas guzzling four-wheel drive crazy cars owners. Would they buy it? The answer could partly be found in this article written by Matthew Watkins, Nottingham Trent University on the current trend that concludes by the internal combustion engine is dead, long live the electric car. Cheers.


End of the road for traditional vehicles? Here are the facts

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Matthew Watkins, Nottingham Trent University

New sales of petrol and diesel cars will be banned by 2040 in the UK, which has since been joined by France. Sweden and Scotland will impose the ban by 2032, and Norway by 2025. Coupled with increasing concern over the carcinogenic effects of diesel emissions, the Volkswagen defeat device scandal, and the link between diesel particulates and Alzheimer’s, focus has turned again to electric cars.

There is still much debate about the long-term environmental benefits of electrically powered cars. What fuel mix will the power stations that generate the electricity be using, for example, and what are the implications for the environment of widespread battery production and disposal? Nevertheless, the key message in the Clean Air Plan is the need for an improvement in air quality for the benefit of human health and therefore the removal of petrol and diesel cars from built up areas. It is not an academic argument on the holistic environmental impact.

The electric car actually predates the use of the internal combustion engine in vehicles. Electric vehicles were popular until their complete decline in the 1930s due to cheaper petroleum fuelled cars such as the Model T Ford. Nevertheless, battery technology has now reached a point where it could be a viable alternative to the use of fuels.

In the last decade, manufacturers’ hybrid and electric offerings have grown – but the market is still small. Only 1.84% of new vehicles sold were wholly electric and 3.46% hybrid (a combination of a smaller internal combustion engine supported by electric propulsion) in September 2017, although this represents an increase of 0.29% and 1.39% respectively on September 2016 figures.

According to a 2014 government survey, consumer resistance to adoption is largely due to concerns over recharging and “range anxiety”, with consumers worrying about how far they can actually go on a charge.

In fact, the average annual mileage of a privately owned car in 2016 was 7,500 miles, equating to only 28.9 miles per day – assuming that the car is used for commuting five times per week. This is easily within the range of electric cars, which typically boast ranges of over 100 miles.

Fit for purpose?

Electric cars arguably suit our modern, digital lives far more than the faithful old internal combustion engine – and most of us are now more attuned to plugging in devices that support our daily lives. Surely visiting a fuel station once or twice a week for about ten to 20 minutes should be a rather alien and outdated concept in an instantly connected, plug-in culture many now live in.

On the scrapheap?

Indeed, the idea of plugging your car in at the end of the day is just a logical extension of the need to plug in your phone, your laptop, tablet or even your toothbrush.

But perhaps therein lies the uptake problem. While we have become accustomed to a portable battery orientated culture, we are also very aware of the potential downfalls this brings. We are familiar with the annoyance of our phone running out of battery while we are using it as a sat-nav to get home, or the degradation of a laptop battery over its lifetime, or the ultimate frustration of waking up in the morning to find that our electric toothbrush has run out of charge. Perhaps the modern human consciousness can’t uncouple its infrequent but memorable frustrations with battery technology to recognise the benefits an electric car could bring.

But this may not be an issue among younger generations. My two-year-old son picked up my scale model of a Ferrari 355 (yes, this is being written by a petrol head), pointed to the engine compartment and said, “daddy, batteries go here”. I grew up maintaining cars with my father, so this was quite a shock – but also a revelation. A cultural shift is underway. The knowledge I proudly hold may be irrelevant to my children as they reach driving age – and the joy of explaining the internal combustion engine to my older five-year-old son already seems more akin to teaching history than technology.

There is already a growing infrastructure in the UK for electric vehicles with 14,548 charging points in 5,207 locations (in comparison to 8,459 fuel stations). There are now on-street chargers in most cities and dedicated parking bays in motorway service stations, although access is more limited in rural areas.

Even if charged at home, the range of most current models should be sufficient for the majority of journeys, with the exception of long distance trips, where a change of pace may need to be adopted to permit for the longer charging periods mid journey. For those who typically drive beyond the average range on a more frequent basis, a hybrid vehicle remains the most suitable option.

In any event, after over 140 years of virtually unrivalled domination, the innovation cycle has finally caught up with the internal combustion engine. The internal combustion engine is dead, long live the electric car.

Matthew Watkins, Senior Lecturer in Product Design, Nottingham Trent University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

The Conversation

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