Davos Forum & Rebuilding Trust, Op-ed

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The above image is for illustration and is of weforum.org

Davos Forum & Rebuilding Trust, Op-ed

Mon 05 Feb 2024
Dr. Abdelhak Azouzi
The World Economic Forum, which is organized in the snow-covered city of Davos, and which extends for more than half a century, is a forum for dialogue and exchange of views on common global challenges. More than 300 public figures participated in it this year, including more than 60 heads of state and government. It also brought together representatives from various sectors.

More than 1,600 business leaders participated in the conference, including 800 senior CEOs, and were joined by 150 global innovators and technology pioneers who are at the forefront of manufacturing industries. They discussed several topics, including the topic of artificial intelligence, which promises a real revolution and multiple uses.

However, experts warn that it also poses risks such as violating private life, defects in algorithms, and others that require regulating this sector, but this is difficult to do in light of the rapid development of these technologies.

 

 

Dozens of leading countries in the field of artificial intelligence are trying to establish regulations for the development of artificial intelligence and its use in several fields, including the military field, warning of “unwanted consequences,” such as concerns related to “the issue of human involvement,” in addition to the “lack of clarity at the level of responsibility.”

 

 

This year’s meetings were organized in a world characterized by the four characteristics of volatility, apprehension, complexity, and ambiguity. There is a serious and unprecedented defect in the international system, and volcanic clouds fill its atmosphere, and its darkness is today a set of proverbs in the east and west of the earth, and its negatives have begun to eat away at its roots, and there is a state of worrying anticipation, and anticipation in the field of international relations often creates political confusion and confusion in priorities, and turmoil in multilateral relations, and the restriction of a realistic view and movement … and anticipation creates chaos and insecurity, and generates situations of confusion and ambiguity, not to mention that it sometimes generates improvisation in analysis and taking appropriate decisions.

 

 

 

That is why the organizers of the Davos Forum tried to hold the meetings under the slogan “rebuilding Trust.” This trust is the main rule not only in building the global system, but also in building societies and nations economically and politically. Do not think that I am talking here about our Arab societies, but rather about Western societies whose citizens no longer trust the parties or the representative democracy they used to know; If you take the example of the French, and many other Westerners, they no longer have trust, not only in the traditional parties of the right and left, but in all parties, and this has more than a hundred implications in the sociology of political science with regard to the general political sphere, party ideology, and political action. The issue of trust between the ruler and the ruled, public policies, and so on.

 

 

 

The message that reached everyone is that the impatience of the middle and poor classes in democratic industrial societies may cause an earthquake that will make it difficult to find solutions. Neither the European nor the global economic situation can satisfy the desires of large segments of societies.

Moreover, with the loss of the legitimacy of the parties and their representatives, every solution or solutions that will be presented will be rejected. France, for example, is a country of institutions, and this explains that many of the protests that the town has witnessed for years did not cause a complete earthquake, but for how long? All the strategic and economic experts I speak to tell me that the country is suffering from a crisis of trust between the citizen and the state and that this stage of social and political unrest will have a severe impact on France, and even on many European countries, and French society will undergo a process of transformation with the cancellation of many of the democratic and economic gains it has accumulated through the centuries.

 

 

There are now two equations: the equation of social actors and the equation of political actors, but the problem is that all societal and political actors are neither in the correct societal nor political movement, and they are all drowned either in impossible demands or in the quagmire of circumstantial self-defense, and here is the great shrewdness.

 

 

 

The issue of restoring trust also brings us to a question posed by economists: What should we do in the face of a school that continues to defend liberalism and another that defends protectionism? What impact will there have on investments in light of fears of instability? As we ask these two questions, we remember how countries like the United States transformed overnight from endless liberalism to interventionist and protectionism in order to preserve state institutions from collapse, which led to a change in international economic and financial mechanisms.

For example, the financial crisis that the world experienced in 2008, which became an economic crisis, is not the first in history, but rather it is the first that can be considered global, and one of its causes was a lack of trust.

 

 

 

In the early winter of 2006, many of the poorest American families who were offered subprime mortgages found themselves unable to repay their debts. Banks began to confiscate properties, and owners burdened with debt in an atmosphere of lack of trust began to sell their properties before the banks confiscated them, which led to an imbalance between supply and demand in the real estate market and a decline in prices. Thus, banks and their “suicidal” speculators found themselves with confiscated and unsaleable housing, worthless investments and liquidity problems. At the beginning of September 2008, the mortgage crisis turned into a banking crisis.

 

 

 

The US financial system was on the verge of collapse in October 2008 due to lack of liquidity and lack of trust. American banks and insurance companies were saved by naturalization and the promise of non-existent public money, and private debt became public. The crisis crossed from the United States to reach European banks, which made all countries, without exception, ignore their liberal policies and impose protectionist rules to create the trust necessary to save their economies.

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The I M F on the economic outlook in the MENA region

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The prolongation of the war against the population of Gaza and the persistence of the tense situation in the Red Sea risk having a serious impact on the economies of countries in the region indicates a new report from the I M F (International Monetary Fund) on the economic outlook in the MENA region -Middle East and North Africa. So what is the I M F on the economic outlook in the MENA region about?  Well, let us find out.

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The I M F on the economic outlook in the MENA region

By N. Bouaricha  in El Watan (in French),  1 February 2024

 

Photo: DR

Projecting a growth rate of 2.9% in 2024 for the region (down 0.5 percentage points from October 2023 projections) assuming conflicts subside, after the first quarter of 2024, the IMF estimates on the other hand, that in the event of escalation or propagation “uncertainty would increase and the repercussions of the conflict via different transmission channels, starting with tourism, foreign direct investments and the energy and financial markets, would be even stronger.

The IMF notes that the economic repercussions could be “considerable”, especially for the tourism and trade sector. “A rise in energy bills and borrowing costs, driven by an unexpected tightening of financing conditions in the region, could also dampen growth,” notes the same report.

If in low-income countries, the IMF forecasts still negative growth due, in particular, to the situation in Sudan, disinflation is expected to continue in most countries in the MENA region due to “national specificities”.

The growth rate in the West Bank and Gaza is, according to IMF calculations, around -6% in 2023, down 9 percentage points compared to forecasts last October. Overall, the IMF considers that the outlook is “very uncertain and the downside risks are increasing”.

The impact of the blockage of maritime traffic in the Red Sea and the war in Gaza will depend on the proximity and exposure of countries to the conflict zone, like Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. Egypt, for example given the existing connection between the Suez Canal and maritime traffic between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, could be significantly impacted.

In the first half of 2023, trade transiting through the Suez Canal represented 12% of global trade, including 30% of container traffic, 10% and 15% of maritime freight, and 8% of liquefied natural gas by the Sea route. “Since January 21, 2024, the cumulative freight volume over 10 days has fallen by 50%,” notes the same source.

“The application of crisis management measures and preventive policies will be decisive in countries which suffer serious repercussions or face high risks,” specifies the report.

As for other countries, adds the same source, “they will have to continue to consolidate their room for manoeuvre. Monetary policy must imperatively remain focused on price stability…”.

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Middle East can be a beacon of sustainable development

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Despite the apparent volatile stability of certain areas of the MENA region, it is nevertheless understood why Sustainability is Essential to Long-Term Development and because of that, the Middle East can be a beacon of sustainable development. Also as per Arab News, it is at a crucial turning point in its efforts to combat climate change (above Image File/AFP).

Let us see why.

 

Middle East can be a beacon of sustainable development

The Middle East and North Africa region is at a crucial turning point in its efforts to combat climate change. Encouragingly, nations such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been proactive and are taking steps to invest significantly in renewable energy with the aim of broadening their energy portfolio, decreasing their reliance on fossil fuels and tackling environmental issues.

The imperative for MENA countries to increase their investments in renewable energy is not merely an environmental commitment, but also a strategic response to the pressing challenges posed by climate change. As global temperatures rise and extreme weather events become more frequent — and due to the climate vulnerabilities of the region —MENA countries must accelerate their transition toward sustainable energy sources to mitigate the impact of climate change and ensure a resilient and prosperous future.

The region is familiar with the negative effects of climate change, as its temperatures are rising, water scarcity is increasing and desertification is intensifying. Extreme weather events are also becoming more frequent. Coastal areas face the threat of rising sea levels, while arid regions experience more prolonged droughts. But by increasing their investments in clean energy, nations in the region can fortify their resilience to these negative effects.

Firstly, to address this issue, it is critical to chart a path toward decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. As we know, a significant portion of global greenhouse gas emissions can be attributed to the burning of fossil fuels, particularly in developed nations. Transitioning to renewable energy sources, particularly solar power, can be a powerful tool in reducing nations’ carbon footprints.

By increasing their investments in clean energy, nations in the region can fortify their resilience

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

By harnessing the abundant sunlight that bathes the Middle East and North Africa, countries can decrease their dependency on fossil fuels, thereby limiting their release of greenhouse gases and contributing to global efforts to curb climate change.

The second reason it is important to expedite the transition toward renewable energy is that the region grapples with water scarcity — a challenge that is exacerbated by climate change. Clean energy solutions, particularly solar power and wind power, can address the water-energy nexus by offering sustainable alternatives to traditional energy sources, which often require significant water consumption.

Solar power, in particular, is a water-efficient energy source that not only reduces greenhouse gas emissions but also helps alleviate the strain on already-scarce water resources. This dual benefit approach is a crucial aspect of sustainable development in the face of climate change.

Additionally, solar-powered irrigation systems and climate-resilient infrastructure contribute to building adaptive capacity, ensuring that the region can withstand and recover from the impacts of a changing climate.

Thirdly, in the context of climate uncertainties, securing energy needs should be given paramount importance. As has become evident, climate change introduces uncertainties into the availability and accessibility of traditional energy sources. By investing in clean energy, the region can enhance its energy security in the face of climate-related disruptions.

For example, solar power offers a reliable and consistent source of energy that is immune to the geopolitical tensions and market fluctuations that often characterize fossil fuel-dependent economies. This transition to more secure and sustainable energy sources not only shields the MENA region from external vulnerabilities, but also fosters long-term stability.

Investing in clean energy is not only an environmental imperative, but also an opportunity for economic diversification

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Fourthly, the economic implications of climate change cannot be overlooked. Extreme weather events, disrupted supply chains and shifting agricultural patterns can have profound effects on economies, particularly those dependent on traditional sectors.

In other words, investing in clean energy is not only an environmental imperative, but also an opportunity for economic diversification. The renewable energy sector, including solar, offers avenues for job creation, technological innovation and the development of new industries. By fostering a green economy, the MENA region can build resilience against the economic impacts of climate change and position itself as a leader in the global transition to sustainability.

But addressing climate change requires coordinated effort on a global scale. The Middle East can play a pivotal role in international climate diplomacy by shaping global narratives, fostering collaboration and contributing to the achievement of international climate goals. This not only aligns with international expectations, but also establishes the MENA region as a key player in the global fight against climate change.

In a nutshell, the imperative for the region to invest in green energy is not just a response to environmental concerns, but is also a strategic necessity.

Fortunately, nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already made substantial investments in renewable energy as they aim to broaden their energy portfolio, diminish their reliance on fossil fuels and confront environmental challenges. From mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to a changing climate and from fostering economic diversification to assuming a leadership role in global sustainability efforts, the benefits of this ongoing transition are far-reaching.

With its unique environmental challenges and abundant solar resources, the MENA region has the potential to emerge as a beacon of sustainable development, illustrating that the pursuit of clean energy is not just a global responsibility, but a pathway to a resilient and prosperous future for the region and the planet.

  • Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh

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Remittances into the Middle East and North Africa fell during 2023

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Remittances into the Middle East and North Africa fell during 2023, according to a World Bank report with Remittances falling over 5% to $61bn, Egypt slumps while India and the Philippines were among the top recipients

 


Remittances into the Middle East and North Africa fell during 2023, according to a World Bank report 

 

The Image above Shutterstock 

Remittance payments sent to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will fall by approximately 5.3 per cent this year, according to a World Bank report.

The World Bank’s latest Migration and Development brief said remittances to the Middle East and North Africa are expected to decline again in 2023, falling by about 5.3 per cent to $61bn in 2023.

The decline is driven mainly by a sharp drop in flows to Egypt.

MENA remittances fall

For Egypt, a significant gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel market likely caused a large part of remittances to be unrecorded.

Meanwhile, remittance flows to the Maghreb countries experienced a gain, offsetting some of the decline.

Sending $200 to the region cost 5.9 per cent on average in the second quarter of 2023.

Globally, remittances to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) grew an estimated 3.8 per cent in 2023, a moderation from the high gains of the previous two years.

Of concern is the risk of decline in real income for migrants in 2024 in the face of global inflation and low growth prospects, according to the World Bank.

In 2023, remittance flows to LMICs are estimated to have reached $669bn as resilient labour markets in advanced economies and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries continue supporting migrants’ ability to send money home.

By region, remittance inflows grew for Latin America and the Caribbean (8 per cent), South Asia (7.2 per cent), East Asia and the Pacific (3 per cent), and Sub-Saharan Africa (1.9 per cent).

Remittances to Europe and Central Asia also fell by 1.4 per cent after gaining more than 18 per cent in 2022.

The United States continued to be the largest source of remittances.

Remittances to MENA region fall over 5% to $61bn, Egypt slumps while India and Philippines among top recipients

The top five remittance recipient countries in 2023 are:

  • India ($125bn)
  • Mexico ($67bn)
  • China ($50bn)
  • Philippines ($40bn)
  • Egypt ($24bn)

Economies where remittance inflows represent substantial shares of gross domestic product (GDP) – highlighting the importance of remittances for funding current account and fiscal shortfalls – are Tajikistan (48 per cent), Tonga (41 per cent), Samoa (32 per cent), Lebanon (28 per cent), and Nicaragua (27 per cent).

Based on the trajectory of weaker global economic activity, growth of remittances to LMICs is expected to soften further to 3.1 per cent in 2024.

Driving the moderated forecast are a slowing economic growth and the prospect of weaker job markets in several high-income countries.

Additional downside risks include volatile oil prices and currency exchange rates, and a deeper-than-expected economic downturn in high-income countries.

Iffath Sharif, Global Director of the Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice at the World Bank, said: “During crises, migrants have weathered risks and shown resilience to support families back home.

“But high inflation and subdued global growth is affecting how much money they can send.

“Labor markets and social protection policies in host countries should be inclusive of migrants, whose remittances serve as a vital lifeline for developing countries.”

According to the Bank’s Remittances Prices Worldwide Database, remittance costs remain persistently high, costing 6.2 per cent on average to send $200 as of the second quarter of 2023.

Compared to a year ago, sending money to all regions was more expensive, with the Middle East and North Africa being the exception.

Banks continue to be the costliest channel for sending remittances (with an average cost of 12.1 per cent), followed by post offices (7 per cent), money transfer operators (5.3%), and mobile operators (4.1 per cent).

Image: Shutterstock

Dilip Ratha, lead economist and lead author of the report, said: “Remittances are one of the few sources of private external finance that are expected to continue to grow in the coming decade.

“They must be leveraged for private capital mobilization to support development finance, especially via diaspora bonds.

“Remittance flows to developing countries have surpassed the sum of foreign direct investment and official development assistance in recent years, and the gap is increasing.”

.Read the original Arabian Business

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COP28 kicks off with climate disaster fund victory

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COP28 kicks off with climate disaster fund victory 

Summary

  • COP28 adopts new fund to help poor nations with disasters
  • U.S., Japan, UAE among first to announce new contributions
  • Countries and oil companies urged to work together

DUBAI, Nov 30 (Reuters) – The U.N. climate summit clinched an early victory Thursday, with delegates adopting a new fund to help poor nations cope with costly climate disasters.

COP28 president Sultan al-Jaber said the decision sent a “positive signal of momentum to the world and to our work here in Dubai.”

In establishing the fund on the first day of the two-week COP28 conference, delegates opened the door for governments to announce contributions.

And several did, kicking off a series of small pledges that countries hoped would build to a substantial sum, including $100 million from the COP28 host United Arab Emirates, another $100 million from Germany, at least $51 million from Britain, $17.5 million from the United States, and $10 million from Japan.

The early breakthrough on the damage fund, which poorer nations had demanded for years, could help grease the wheels for other compromises to be made during the two-week summit.

But some groups were cautious, noting there were still unresolved issues including how the fund would be financed in the future.

“The absence of a defined replenishment cycle raises serious questions about the fund’s long-term sustainability,” said Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International. “The responsibility now lies with affluent nations to meet their financial obligations in a manner proportionate to their role in the climate crisis.”

Adnan Amin, CEO of the COP28 summit, told Reuters this month the aim was to secure several hundred million U.S. dollars for the climate disaster fund during the event.

Pope Francis, who was forced to cancel his trip to COP28 due to illness, sent a message on social media platform X: “May participants in #COP28 be strategists who focus on the common good and the future of their children, rather than the vested interests of certain countries or businesses. May they demonstrate the nobility of politics and not its shame.”

A ROLE FOR FOSSIL FUELS

Earlier on Thursday, Jaber opened the summit by urging countries and fossil fuel companies to work together to meet global climate goals.

Governments are preparing for marathon negotiations on whether to agree, for the first time, to phase out the world’s use of CO2-emitting coal, oil and gas, the main source of warming emissions.

Jaber, who is also the CEO of the United Arab Emirates’ national oil company ADNOC, aimed to strike a conciliatory tone following months of criticism over his appointment at the head of COP28.

He acknowledged that there were “strong views” about the idea of including language on fossil fuels and renewables in the negotiated text.

“It is essential that no issue is left off the table. And yes, as I have been saying, we must look for ways and ensure the inclusion of the role of fossil fuels,” he said.

He touted his country’s decision to “proactively engage” with fossil fuel companies, and noted that many national oil companies had adopted net-zero targets for 2050.

“I am grateful that they have stepped up to join this game-changing journey,” Jaber said. “But, I must say, it is not enough, and I know that they can do much more.”

Another major task at the summit will be for countries to assess their progress in meeting global climate goals – chiefly the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).

This process, known as the global stocktake, should yield a high-level plan telling countries what they need to do.

Reporting by Kate Abnett, Valerie Volcovici and Maha El Dahan; Additional reporting by William James and Alvise Armellini; Writing by Katy Daigle; Editing by Matthew Lewis, Miral Fahmy and Christina Fincher

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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