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Expatriate workers continue increasing in the Arabian Gulf

Expatriate workers continue increasing in the Arabian Gulf

Migrant or expatriate workers continue adding to the labour force of oil-rich Gulf due to mega-construction projects, UN data shows.  Al Jazeera posted this article dated 20 Dec 2018 elaborating on a situation known to all since the advent of oil.

Gulf Arab blue-collar workforce continues to grow: UN

by James Reinl

Blue-collar migrant workers continue adding to the labour force of the oil-rich Gulf, skewing long-standing efforts by its leaders to increase the percentage of its own citizens in the workforce, data of the UN’s International Labour Organization (ILO) shows.

Figures released this month in a 78-page study, ILO Global Estimates on National Migrant Workers, showed that the proportion of migrants in the eastern Arab region’s workforce ballooned by 5.2 percent from 2013 to 2017, mostly in the construction sector.

Migrants now make up 40.8 percent of the workforce across a 12-nation region that includes the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) bloc of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman.

This is a much higher proportion than other rich regions that attract some of the world’s estimated 164 million migrant workers. In comparison, migrants make up only 20.6 percent of the labour force in North America, and 17.8 percent in Europe.

In Dubai, Doha and other Gulf boomtowns, foreigners make up as much as 90 percent of workers, according to older figures. The ILO did not have data on separate countries for this month’s report; Ryszard Cholewinski, the ILO’s Beirut-based expert on migrant workers, said that figures provided by Gulf governments are often incomplete.

Blue collar jobs

The increase in labour flows to Gulf states these past five years was driven mainly by mega-construction projects, including pavilions for Expo 2020 Dubai and the FIFA World Cup 2022 stadiums being built across Qatar, said Cholewinski.

Demand has also grown for maids, gardeners, drivers and other domestic staff, he added. In particular, more foreign carers are being hired to look after a growing number of elderly folks in their homes, as the Gulf population ages.

“The demand for male workers in the Arab states explains the sharp increase in the share of migrant workers in this region. Many of these workers are manual labourers, located mostly in the construction sector,” Natalia Popova, an ILO labour economist, told Al Jazeera.

“Possible other reasons for the increase in the high share of migrant workers may include the increasing demand for domestic workers, both male and female, as well as for migrant workers in the hospitality sector.”

Nationalisation efforts

While data on nationalisation efforts is skewed due to the sheer amount of blue-collar migrants, Gulf leaders have long sought to boost the numbers of their working citizens, mainly in the white-collar workforce.

However, state-led hiring drives, with such names as Qatarisation, Emiratisation and Saudisation, have had only limited success, particularly in the private sector, according to the ILO.

“Many of these nationalisation policies are not really having any impact. It’s one of the region’s big challenges,” Cholewinski told Al Jazeera.

“There’s a lot of rhetoric on nationalisation in for example Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 agenda. But in practice, this is going extremely slowly.”

Al Jazeera contacted the UN missions of all six Gulf states by email and telephone over the course of several days, but was not able to get a comment on this issue.

While each Gulf nation faces different challenges when it comes to nationalisation, many Gulf citizens loathe taking jobs in private companies, which cannot compete with the pension plans, generous holidays and shorter working hours in the cushy jobs-for-life enjoyed by civil servants.

This can lead to odd distortions. A visitor to Dubai, the UAE’s tourism hub, can spend their whole week-long vacation being served by migrant workers in shops, taxis and eateries, and the only Emirati they meet is a passport-stamping immigration clerk at the airport.

Last month, the UAE launched it’s so-called Citizen Redistribution Policy to temporarily shift civil servants into private sector jobs. It also rolled out training schemes for Emiratis and online recruitment tools.

In recent months, Riyadh has introduced rules requiring shops to have Saudis in at least 70 percent of sales jobs. Expat workers pay monthly fees for their spouses and children, employers pay similar penalties for foreign employees.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious Vision 2030 agenda aims to overhaul the Saudi economy by massively expanding the healthcare, education, recreation and tourism sectors and slash the high unemployment rates for young Saudis.

John Shenton, chairman of the Chartered Institute of Building’s Novus initiative, which supports construction jobs in Dubai, told Al Jazeera that Gulf nationalisation schemes were bearing fruit.

In some state-regulated sectors, such as banking, legal and financial services, the number of local staff has grown, Shenton said. “If the goal is to get more Emiratis in the workforce then it’s having some effect,” said Shenton. “However there are other factors that will mean that those efforts may not be reflected in the data.”

These gains are dwarfed by the mass-recruitment of foreign construction workers to build the skyscrapers, malls and artificial islands for which the region is famous, he added.

“At a site level, the chaps in safety boots and hard hats will always be from the subcontinent or South Asia,” Shenton said.

“At the engineering and supervisory level, the skill set required can’t be satisfied by the number of local graduates. The volume of work being undertaken and the discreet programme dates associated with projects like Qatar 2022 necessitate our hosts resourcing from overseas.”

Melissa Roza, a headhunter at a Dubai-based recruitment firm, said nationalisation schemes had made gains in some white-collar jobs, but that state-set hiring quotas and penalty fees were also hurting these sectors.

Banks in the UAE often prefer to pay fines for hiring foreigners than to cover the recruitment costs involved in hiring an Emirati, training them up and meeting their high salary expectations, she said.

Executives have also found workarounds by hiring migrants via outsourcing firms, which do not affect the quota count, added Roza, whose name was changed so she could talk frankly on a hot-button issue. 

Follow James Reinl on Twitter: @jamesreinl

  • Inside Story happen when the Gulf countries’ oil runs out?

SOURCE: Al Jazeera News

  • READ MORE

UN clears Qatar over treatment of migrant workers

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Pakistan’s ties with the Gulf countries

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Who must lead fight against intolerance of migrants ?

Who must lead fight against intolerance of migrants ?

International students: universities must lead fight against intolerance of migrants

File 20181207 128217 l3ztfu.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1
International students are a valuable cultural and economic asset for universities.
Shutterstock

Divya Jindal-Snape, University of Dundee; Bart Carlo Rienties, The Open University, and Jenna Mittelmeier, University of Manchester

What happens when the president of the world’s leading superpower makes inflammatory comments about immigrants and wins an election based largely on a racist and nationalist platform? As we’ve seen over the past two years, his followers feel emboldened and righteous in their discrimination against immigrants, despite their hopes, ambitions and rich personal histories.

Similarly in the UK, after the referendum to leave the EU, some voters felt free to vent their racist views. International students have also been feeling unwelcome due to high tuition fees, tight immigration laws and the introduction of charges to use the NHS.

This has profound implications for the higher education sector, where international students bring numerous social, cultural and financial benefits to their host institutions and country. In the US for example, in 2017-18, there were 1,094,792 international students who contributed US$39 billion to the economy, supporting 455,622 American jobs – equal to three jobs per seven international students.

Yet prejudice against international students is on the rise in the US and the UK. A recent US study found that this prejudice was predicted by support for Trump. Its author suggests that students who champion Trump’s vision of America might see international students through a racist lens, viewing them as unwelcome “others”.

A small study of just 389 home students, it can’t be used to generalise attitudes of all Trump supporters, but it can provide a window on what might be happening on university campuses across the the country where there are international students. And it serves as an important reminder for other countries, such as the UK, to consider how political debate can have an impact on international students.

Dealing with change

Regardless of the political context of the country they choose to study in, international students typically experience many changes, including moving to a new country and city with different educational, social care and health systems. They also face separation from family and friends and the need to make new friends and establish relationships with staff and the local community.

They encounter different cultures and languages, experience new expectations and realities and have to deal with issues such as housing, finances and health care. Most international students not only adapt well to these changes, they thrive. But for some, the challenges can have a negative impact on their well-being – particularly in places which are less than welcoming to international students.

There is a large body of research, including our own highlighting the fact that for international students, mixing with home students can be challenging – even without a political climate that discriminates against them as immigrants. We, and other researchers, have found that most visiting students don’t have much interaction with home students, which can explain why they are often perceived as “other”.

How well students are able to develop academic relationships and social friendships has an impact on their ability to cope with the complex demands of higher education. Some are more at risk in terms of isolation and stress, which can seriously affect their education and well-being. These consequences also come at a cost to the university and the wider community beyond, where positive experiences between different cultures can contribute to more tolerant, inclusive societies.

It is also important to remember that international students choose to go abroad to learn about other cultures, an experience that can also benefit home students. It can lead to a better understanding and appreciation of the world, an ability to think critically and consider different perspectives in their studies. When there is so much to gain, failure to integrate international students is a wasted opportunity for host communities and visiting students alike.

Role of university staff

Academic staff can be one of the most important support networks for international students. In their new environment – cut off from friends and family ties – they often see staff as the most familiar and trusted people, especially before they’ve had a chance to make new friends.

So how can universities encourage and nurture meaningful integration, especially in environments which can be hostile towards immigrants? Our studies have documented the positive impact of authentic group-work activities. By mixing up students’ normal groupings, teachers can influence the academic and social learning of both international and home students.

In the same way, using culturally relevant learning materials, such as books by authors from different countries, exploring topics like international human rights, and using case studies that include international contexts, can encourage students to share their own diverse range of perspectives in inclusive ways.

The responsibility of a university is not limited to just providing a good learning environment – it must provide a good social environment too. Our award-winning research into social transitions of international doctoral students in the UK found that participants wanted staff to see them as more than just students – to see them as human beings first. Mixing socially and sharing cultural events provides an enjoyable social setting for students and staff to get together, helps to break down stereotypes and enhances understanding of different cultures.

In a climate of rising intolerance across the world, it is more important than ever that universities step up and lead by example when it comes to being inclusive.The Conversation

Divya Jindal-Snape, Professor of Education, Inclusion and Life Transitions, University of Dundee; Bart Carlo Rienties, Professor of Learning Analytics, Institute of Educational Technology, The Open University, and Jenna Mittelmeier, Lecturer in Education (International), University of Manchester

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

MENA personal care sector set for growth

MENA personal care sector set for growth

MENA personal care sector set for 8.5% growth: study

The beauty and personal care industry in the MENA region, valued at $15.9 billion, is set to grow twice as faster than the rest of the world with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5 per cent in the next three years, a report said.

Meanwhile the global industry, which is worth $444 billion, is estimated to grow at 4.2 per cent per annum, added the latest MENA Beauty Care Report from Dubai-based Millennial Capital, an emerging venture capital firm specialising in developing partnerships with global brands in the consumer, retail and wellness sector which target to enter or operate in the GCC market..

The report cited reasons of high spending per capita, affordable prices, strong consumer confidence, high literacy rates, young population with a high social media exposure and on top of that new entrants with the aim to fill the gap in the “masstige category”.

Among the key categories that contribute most of the beauty and personal care market size are skincare, haircare, colour cosmetics, fragrances and men’s grooming. Globally, the Skincare category dominates the market and as a brand, L’Oréal Group captures the largest market share. Contrary to global trends, fragrances is the most loved category in the Mena region. The same is evident from the fact that two local brands, Arabian Oud and Al Qurashi, control over 20 per cent of the market share due to their appeal to the local masses and cultural significance.

While Saudi Arabia retains the highest market share of 33.2 per cent in the MENA region, the UAE stands higher in terms of spending per capita at $239. Despite the fact that UAE constitutes only 2 per cent of the Mena population, the high spending per capita is a result of the strong consumer confidence, high literacy rates and predominantly young population with a high social media exposure.

There is great opportunity for new players with the right value proposition to step in and gain market share weighing on the gradually shifting consumer focus to quality products that not just pamper and protect, but also pay attention to cleaner and more organic ingredients, along with personalised offerings so that wider audiences can love and appreciate them just as much, according to the report.

All of this, with an affordable price point has enabled new entrants like O Boticário, KIKO Milano and Benefit Cosmetics to lure the millennial consumer away from luxury tags, it added.

“In the age of beauty ‘retailment’ with consumer preferences shifting from being product-based to experience-based, by having alchemy and innovation in its DNA, brands such as O Boticário bring to Dubai an unprecedented emphasis on quality and retail innovation, offering customers an experience complete with interactive shopping content, products that narrate stories combined with the latest retail technologies, such as the LED screens inside the store which enable customers to get to know the stories behind the products when they lift the product from its display,” said Andreea Danila, founder & managing director at Millennial Capital Ltd.

Millennial Capital joined hands with Brazil’s O Boticário Group to introduce the largest cosmetics franchised network in UAE with the opening of two flagship stores in Dubai Mall and Mirdif City Center. The brand received an overwhelming response since the opening of the store in Dubai and its preparing for Saudi Arabia regional market expansion.

“With 33 per cent of global consumers citing brand sustainability as a key deciding factor in their product choices according to Unilever, there is an untapped potential of $1.1 billion for cleaner and sustainable brands in the market,” said Kanchan Khemani, senior investment analyst at Millennial Capital.

“O Boticário has been a pioneer in the research on alternative methods of product testing such as 3D skin instead of animal testing. The brand invests 1 per cent of revenues in forest conservation, and have reduced their electricity consumption by 70 per cent, leading to a saving of 3,000 tonnes of CO2 annually.”

Internet penetration in the Middle East has outpaced the world average of 51.7 per cent, with the largest markets boasting over 90 per cent penetration; thereby having a tremendous influence on consumers aged 18-24. Being avid smartphone users, today’s millennial is more comfortable going to the e-tailer citing lower prices, personalised offerings, and flexible payment methods as factors driving their preference.

Despite the high Middle East social media usage at 38 per cent of total population and average internet penetration of 60 per cent, only 15 per cent of retailers in the Middle East maintain an online presence, hence losing out on the 56 per cent shoppers who purchase products online through their smartphones.

It is interesting to note that health and beauty sales contribute 48 per cent of the Middle East’s online sales, the report said.

TradeArabia News Service

 

Indians, Pakistanis most interested in UAE property

Indians, Pakistanis most interested in UAE property

It is no surprise that in this article (see below) of ConstructionWeekonline, there is no hint anywhere that Indians, Pakistanis most interested in UAE property investments make up the most significant percentage of the populations of the respective GCC countries.

Since the advent of oil, the Persian Gulf countries have generally turned into modern states through concurrent processes of development.  Rapid population growth in the GCC states has been timed by 10 at least, in the space of few decades through primarily a natural growth in the influx of foreign workers and not through their indigenous population. 

It must also be noted that the same countries planning ahead are believed to be somehow facilitating investments of non nationals in any segment of their economies, presumably to counter all those consequences of oil peaking shortly and away from the Gulf region.

Of the top five most active nationalities on Dubizzle Property, the highest interest in the UAE property market came from Indian nationals, accounting for 22% of visits to the platform in 9M 2018. 

Indians and Pakistanis are most interested in UAE property investments, Dubizzle said [representational image].

Indians, Pakistanis most interested in UAE property investments

Nov 22, 2018

o EThis data echoes figures from Dubai Land Department (DLD), where Indian nationals accounted for more than 4,600 investments worth AED 8.6 billion in the first nine months of this year, representing the largest property investment segment in the UAE.

Pakistanis came in second with 14% of visits to dubizzle Property, followed by Egyptians (6 per cent), Jordanians (4 per cent) and UK nationals (4%).

Egyptians and Jordanians are the top Arab nationalities looking to invest in the UAE property market, according to dubizzle Property.

The two nationalities accounted for 10 per cent of property seekers on the platform in the first three quarters of the year.

This is in line with the figures recently revealed by the Dubai Land Department (DLD) concerning Dubai real estate transactions during the same period, where Jordanians were identified as the highest Arab investors with 644 investments by 548 investors, worth over AED 1.2 billion.  Egyptians recorded 719 transactions made by 623 investors, worth over AED 1 billion.

China, France, UAE, and KSA were among the top 20 most active users of the platform, which is also in line with the DLD’s list of top 10 investors by nationality that includes UAE, India, KSA, UK, Pakistan, China, Egypt, Jordan, and France.

“The current soft sales market has made the cost of property ownership more attractive versus the cost of rent, especially for those considering staying in Dubai for five years or more. Long-term expats are increasingly making the leap into ownership as declining prices are now making this investment possible,” commented Matthew Gregory, head of property sales at dubizzle Property.

 

RELATED ARTICLES: dubizzle reveals Abu Dhabi real estate trends in 2017 | UAE: Dubizzle reveals property trends for Q2 2015 | Dubizzle announces new authentification initaitive | Commercial property markets in Dubai and Abu Dhabi continue to struggle

Refugee and migrant children losing

Refugee and migrant children losing

Today no one ignores that in the MENA region, countries’ education systems amongst others are undergoing difficult times.  Here is a UN’s report review confirming whilst shedding some light on the goings-on.

Refugee and migrant children losing over 1.8 million school days, every day – UN report

Seated on a rug atop the dirt ground, two girls complete homework outside their tent home, in the Kawergosk camp for Syrian refugees, west of Erbil, Iraq.     UNICEF/Romenzi

20 November 2018

Migrants and Refugees

Migrant and refugee children to face incredible hardships attending schools and accessing education, a new United Nations report released on Tuesday has revealed, highlighting also structural weaknesses in national systems that can sometimes exclude children on the move.

According to the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), factors such as non-certified schools, language different and limited resources are keeping refugee and migrant children away from learning and prospects for a better future.

“The right of these children to quality education, even if increasingly recognized on paper, is challenged daily in classrooms and schoolyards and denied outright by a few governments,” said the UN agency in a news release, announcing its new Global Education Monitoring Report.

“In the two years since the landmark New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants, refugees have missed 1.5 billion days of school.”

Alongside this stark finding, the report did note some progress, especially in some of the largest refugee-hosting nations, in inclusion of refugee children in national education systems.

Champions include low income countries such as Chad, Ethiopia and Uganda, noted the report, adding that Canada and Ireland are leading in implementing inclusive education policies for immigrants.

Education ‘key to inclusion and cohesion’ – UNESCO Director-General

Audrey Azoulay, the Director-General or UNESCO, highlighted the importance of education to make communities stronger and more resilient.

Increased classroom diversity, while challenging for teachers, can also enhance respect for diversity and an opportunity to learn from others – UNESCO head Audrey Azoulay

“Everyone loses when the education of migrants and refugees is ignored. Education is the key to inclusion and cohesion. Increased classroom diversity, while challenging for teachers, can also enhance respect for diversity and an opportunity to learn from others.”

The 2019 edition of the report – which focuses on migration, displacement and education – also highlighted the need for additional resources for low- and middle-income countries, which host almost 90 per cent of refugees globally but lack funds to cope.

“Donors need to multiply their expenditure on refugee education by three and ensure long term support,” added UNESCO.

In addition, the report also called for better understanding and planning to meet the education needs of migrants and displaced people, as well as greater and accurate representation of migration and displacement histories in the curriculum to challenge prejudices.

Alongside, it also recommended that teachers of migrants and refugees be provided with better preparation to help address diversity and hardship.

 

2nd edition of the International Conference of African Organisations

2nd edition of the International Conference of African Organisations

Migration crisis in Africa; challenges, issues and perspectives

This contribution is a synthesis of my intervention following the invitation of the organizers of the provisional programme of the 2nd edition of the International Conference of African Organisations and all members of the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), that is held at the ‘Centre International de Conférences Abdelatif Rahal’, Algiers on 19 to 21 November 2018, bringing together several African organizations and personalities.  It will be concerning all migratory flows; responsibility of which being shared between the leaders of the north (recent flows into the USA) and between Europeans and Africains.

Africa a continent with significant potential

Some countries including Nigeria, Gabon, Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Algeria, Libya specialize in oil, gas and raw materials and having experienced high demand and high prices in the world markets allowing them relative financial ease.  Conversely, countries such as Benin, Malawi, Mauritius, Swaziland, Ethiopia, Togo, Mali, which are penalized in products that often experience deterioration in terms of trade, misery, famine and often internal conflicts and where the military expenditure budget in Africa is beyond human understanding to the detriment of the allocation of resources for development purposes.

The ten richest African countries in decreasing order are for the current GDP in 2017:

  • Nigeria with $581 billion,
  • South Africa with $276 billion,
  • Egypt with $264 billion,
  • Algeria with $170 billion,
  • Sudan with $124 billion,
  • Morocco with $121 billion,
  • Angola with $104 billion,
  • Ethiopia with $93 billion,
  • Kenya with $77 billion and
  • Tanzania with $52 billion.

On the other hand, the poorest countries are in decreasing order:

  • Burundi with a GDP per capita at $285,
  • Malawi with a GDP per capita of about $300,
  • Niger with a GDP per capita of about $364,
  • Mozambique with a GDP per capita of $382,
  • The Central African Republic, GDP per capita slightly higher than $382,
  • Madagascar, GDP per capita is about $401,
  • Somalia with a GDP per capita about $434,
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo with a GDP of about $444 per capita,
  • Liberia, with per capita GDP at about $455 and
  • Gambia with a GDP per capita at slightly higher than $473.

Security and stability of States must be based on democratic values

However, beware, we must be wary of the global GDP that veils the interprofessional (concentration of income) and interregional disparities, as for any comparisons only similar methods of calculation should be used. An example in 2014, The African continent was learning with amazement that, following a statistical review, Nigeria became the first African economy (ahead of South Africa) with a revalued GDP of $510 billion in 2013, compared to $262 billion in 2012. The GDP of South Africa was about $384 billion that same year. The magnitude of this re-evaluation of Nigeria’s GDP Following a statistical review is not an isolated case in Africa. However, these indicators are not enough to understand the situation in Africa. Also, in order to analyse blockages in Africa, the economic factors of political factors cannot be isolated. The joint African Development Bank – Global Financial Integrity (ADB – GFI) report highlights the fact that Africa has suffered from net outflows of the order and that the flight of resources out of Africa over the last thirty years – the equivalent of Africa’s current GDP – is curbing the launch of the continent. Thus, African leaders bear a heavy responsibility to their people and must promote the rule of law, good governance, therefore, the fight against corruption and tribal mentalities, the protection of human rights and the commitment resolutely in the overall reform, thus the democratisation of their society considering cultural anthropology avoiding the unconnected patterns of social realities. So is essential raises the problem of the security and stability of States which must be based on democratic values. In the region, we have seen profound changes in the Saharan geopolitics after the collapse of the Libyan regime, with consequences for the region. Also, the importance of the weight of the informal in Africa produces crippling bureaucracy, promotes corruption, varying by country, but generally exceeding 50% to 60% of the economic surface. For some countries, this sphere employs more than 70% of the workforce. According to the International Labor Office (ILO), this sector provides 72% of jobs in sub-Saharan Africa, of which 93% of new jobs are created, compared with the formal sector, which employs only about 10% of jobs on the continent. In the Maghreb per our study carried out for the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), Paris – December 2013, the informal sphere in the Maghreb, it exceeds 50% of the economic area and employs more than 30% of the working population.  The gap between the rich and the poor is increasing with the income gap reinforcing the inequities in wealth, education, health and social mobility.  A Large and young population is not a handicap for a country, provided that this population is active and that it works in the formal sector so that its work can benefit the dependent population, the very young and the very old.  Sadly though, 75% of the sub-Saharan economy is informal, and the education sectors in these countries are now affected, and the young people who come out poorly trained.

Globalisation and migratory flows

Immigration is now the entry, in each country or geographical area, of foreign persons who come for an extended stay or to settle there. The word immigration comes from the Latin in-Migrate meaning “to enter a place”.  On the margins of this phenomenon is the dual nationality and nomadism, the notion of immigrant is based on the declarations of the place of birth and nationality.

The emigrant is the person who left his place in a country for another place in another, in order to settle there temporarily or permanently. A human migration being a displacement of individuals is probably as old a phenomenon as humankind.  It is increasing in numbers by 2% per annum and measures stocks that include voluntary migration and forced migration. Internal migration to countries is also on the increase, but it is more about population displacement. Statistics show that huge migratory waves have recently declined, in favour of a trend towards immigration more related to brain drain and skills from developing countries, to the detriment of the latter. The characteristics of the current African migratory phenomenon are the diversification of the countries of provenance and destination, as well as the forms are taken by migration. It is estimated that the return of capital or remittances to the countries of origin from the host countries is at least equal if it is not much higher than the amount of financial assistance provided by the so-called “rich” countries to the poorer countries.  If today most migrants move through regular channels, the migratory phenomenon is marked by a rise in the power of forced migration, mainly caused by conflicts and climate change. According to the most optimistic predictions, emanating from many institutions of the United Nations in charge of migration issues, by 2050, the number of displaced persons could jump to a minimum of 6 million/year.  The cause being climatic disturbances, extreme weather phenomena, declining water supplies, desertification, rising sea level and degradation of farmland.  According to international experts, it can also have several causes:

  • Economic: The search for a job, greater prosperity, better working conditions. This is the primary cause of current emigration;
  • Politics: The escape of an oppressive regime;
  • Religious: The hope of a more tolerant land of welcome;
  • Climate change: The taste for a different weather environment (generally milder, warmer and sunnier) and,
  • Fiscal: The will to be in a more favourable legal and financial context. This phenomenon plays particularly for the highest strata of society and in favour of tax havens.

In the era of globalisation where migratory flows are a concrete reality, migration has been globalised, with the same outcome of urbanisation and metropolisation of the world, demographic pressure, unemployment, information, and transnationalisation of migratory networks. The categories of migrants and countries have become more complex, with the globalisation of migration being accompanied by regionalisation of migratory flows. On a global scale, migration is geographically organised where complementarities are built between departure and reception areas. These correspond to geographical proximity, historical, linguistic and cultural links, transnational networks built by migrants, and smugglers (a form of slavery) that form a formal or informal space of movement, accompanied or not by institutional facilities of passage. Migrations have more than tripled since the mid-years 1970: 77 million in 1975, 120 million in 1999, 150 million in early 2000, near 300 million in 2017. This translates the mobility factors for different reasons.  Gaps between levels of human development, political and environmental crises, producers of refugees and displaced persons, reduced transport costs, a generalisation of passport issuance, the role of the media, awareness that one can change the course of his life through international migration.

Global warming, whose responsibility lies mainly with the rich countries and some emerging countries, that could strike the brunt of Africa within 2025/2030/2040, will accentuate the exodus of its populations. These different factors accentuate the bi-polarisation of three worlds, the rich countries, the emerging countries, and the developing countries pushing them to this exodus.

The demographers consider that migration will be an essential adjustment variable by 2050, due to which 2 or 3 billion of additional individuals are expected on the planet, while the effects of climate change will probably be if not already felt and that some areas will no longer be able to feed any additional populations

Dr Abderrahmane MEBTOUL, ademmebtoul@gmail.com