11 December 2023 12:42 pm
A MERCANTILE MIDDLE EAST

A MERCANTILE MIDDLE EAST

Sep 1, 2023

Advertisements

The Gulf states can catalyze trade within the Middle East and North Africa region and the region’s integration into the global trading system

The world has witnessed a tectonic shift in global economic geography and trade toward emerging Asia in the past two decades. However, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has remained one of the least dominant, accounting for just 7.4 percent of total trade in 2022. The region’s trade is characterized by a relatively high concentration of exports in a narrow range of products or trading partners, limited economic complexity, and low participation in global value chains.

Even so, commodity-dependent nations in the MENA region have made substantial gains over time, specifically in trade diversification, as shown by the Global Economic Diversification Index, which tracks the extent of economic diversification from multiple dimensions, including economic activity, international trade, and government revenues.

The MENA region’s total trade in goods as a percent of GDP (an indicator of openness) was 65.5 percent in 2021, indicating a relatively open regional economy. Yet, as shown in Chart 1, intraregional trade is low, representing only 17.8 percent of total trade and 18.5 percent of total exports, despite a common language and culture as well as geographic proximity. The six oil-exporting Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations—Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates—account for the bulk of intraregional trade.

Their dominance of intraregional trade suggests that the Gulf nations could become a catalyst for regional trade integration, helping lower barriers to trade, improving trade infrastructure, and diversifying the region’s economies. Greater integration of non-GCC Middle East nations with the GCC will lead to more intraregional trade and greater global integration (via the GCC’s existing global linkages and participation in global value chains). With the growing global economic integration of the GCC nations and their concerted effort in supporting the region’s other nations (via increased trade and investment deals with Egypt and Iraq, for example), they can be a conduit for greater integration of the rest of the region into world trade.

Region’s laggards

Why have non-GCC countries lagged when it comes to intraregional trade? In part it is a failure of the MENA region’s multiple regional trade (and investment) agreements. The share of intragroup exports in the Arab region, excluding the GCC, has remained below 2 percent of their trade flows, partially a reflection of regional fragmentation, violence, and wars since the mid-1990s and following the Arab Spring in 2011. The region comprises a group of nations characterized by significant political differences, and this is reflected in trade patterns as well. For example, the orientation of the Maghreb nations of North Africa has been toward Europe, with the regional Euro-Med program and agreements supporting such linkages.

A contributing factor to the stagnation of intraregional trade is the lack of growth of trade in services. MENA services trade has ranged between 4 and 6 percent of global services trade in the past two decades. This pales in comparison with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, which account for more than two-thirds of global services trade. Within the MENA region, the GCC accounts for the bulk of services trade, with the largest shares in relatively low-value-added sectors like travel (and tourism) and transportation. The services trade is held back by restrictive policies that limit entry in sectors dominated by state-owned enterprises, such as telecommunications, or that impose high fees and license requirements, especially in professional and transportation services.

Such restrictive policies, along with structural deficiencies, encumber MENA nations’ trade both within the region and globally.

MENA nations apply more, and more restrictive, nontariff measures than in any other region. These almost doubled between 2000 and 2020. Lack of uniform standards and harmonization, pervasive red tape, and corruption compound the effects of these barriers. Business and investment barriers include cumbersome licensing processes, complex regulations, and opaque bidding and procurement procedures.

MENA as a region underperforms on trade facilitation measures to ease the movement of goods at the border and reduce overall trade costs, though there are wide disparities across the region. The quality of trade- and transportation-related infrastructure is significantly lower in the non-GCC MENA nations. Furthermore, delays at the port result in excessive “dwell times” (delays of more than 12 days) for imported goods in some MENA countries. Algeria and Tunisia delays average about 20 days versus less than five days in the United Arab Emirates (among the top three globally).

Knocking down barriers

Overcoming these impediments to wider trade for the region requires removing barriers to trade and investment, diversifying the region’s economies, and improving infrastructure.

A new generation of trade agreements, including more knowledge-intensive services, would not only support export diversification policies but would also help bridge gender gaps, improve women’s economic empowerment, and subsequently result in more inclusive economic growth and integration.

The pandemic has underscored the need for trade diversification (both of products and partners) and development of new supply chains. Although the GCC’s oil trade remains dominant, its members have embarked on various policies and structural reforms, such as increasing labor mobility and opening capital markets across borders, to diversify away from overdependence on fossil fuels and associated revenues. This has resulted in diversification of both the output mix (for example, increased focus on manufacturing) and the export product mix (for example, more services exports) alongside an evident shift in trade patterns toward Asia and away from the United States and Europe. More recently, the war in Ukraine further highlighted the plight of food-importing nations in the Middle East in the context of food security. (Ukraine and Russia accounted for a third of global wheat exports; Lebanon and Tunisia were importing close to 50 percent of their wheat from Ukraine.)

The Global Economic Diversification Index trade subindex shows that the commodity-dependent nations with the most improved scores over time have either reduced dependence on fuel exports, reduced export concentration, or witnessed a massive change in the composition of exports. An example of the latter is Saudi Arabia’s increased focus on medium- and high-tech exports, which rose as a share of overall manufacturing exports, to almost 60 percent right before COVID from less than 20 percent in 2000. The MENA region as a whole has already made some headway toward diversification, as shown in Chart 2.

The GCC nations have benefited from the recent rise in commodity prices, but the pandemic reinforced strategies, including the development of free zones and special economic zones, to diversify into new sectors. These policies range from attracting investment (including foreign direct investment) to higher-value-added, higher-tech manufacturing; investing in new sectors (renewable energy, fintech, artificial intelligence); and opening markets to new investors and investments (as is evident in the recent spate of initial public offerings in both the oil and non-oil sectors). These reforms help expand markets (within the MENA region and toward Africa, Europe, and South Asia), while up-and-coming sectors like renewable energy and agritech offer sustainable ways of expanding the extensive and intensive margins of trade and generating new job opportunities.

Engine for regional integration

Full achievement of the benefits of regional trade integration requires a reform of trade policies to break down barriers, including restrictive nontariff measures, complex regulation, corruption, and logistical roadblocks.

Integrating the MENA region’s trade infrastructure (ports, airports, logistics) with that of the GCC would lower costs and facilitate intraregional trade, leading to greater regional integration and generating gains from trade for all parties. The GCC can lead the economic integration and transformation of the region via investments in hard infrastructure and trade-related infrastructure and logistics, in addition to developing an integrated GCC power grid. A GCC renewable-energy-powered, integrated electricity grid could extend all the way to Europe, Pakistan, and India.

The GCC nations have an opportunity to benefit from global decoupling and fragmentation with their unfolding strategy of pursuing globalization as a regional group through new trade and investment agreements, foreign aid, and direct and portfolio investment. The ongoing disengagement from long-standing regional conflicts, in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, Yemen, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Libya, and elsewhere, and the forging of new links (diplomatic opening such as the Abraham Accords) reduce the geopolitical risks of promoting regional trade and investment. The GCC can use this as an opportunity to shape the MENA region into an interlinked trade and investment hub. The GCC’s accelerated new free trade negotiations with key partners in the MENA region, including Egypt and Jordan, and in Asia, including China and South Korea, could become the cornerstone of this transformation. The United Arab Emirates have already signed comprehensive economic partnership agreements with India, Indonesia, and Türkiye covering services, investment, and regulatory aspects of trade.

There are two complementary ways to move forward. One is to implement the GCC Common Market, invest in digital trade, lower tariff and nontariff barriers, and reduce restrictions on trade in services, along with reforms to facilitate greater mobility of labor and enhance financial and capital market linkages. Second, the GCC should develop new deep trade agreements with the other MENA countries, going beyond international trade to encompass agreement on nontariff measures, direct investment, e-commerce and services, labor standards, taxation, competition, intellectual property rights, climate, the environment, and public procurement (including mega projects). The GCC nations, which have historically used foreign aid and humanitarian aid to support MENA nations, should opt for an “aid for trade” policy to support their partners in implementing trade-boosting reforms that lower business and investment barriers, improve logistics infrastructure, and facilitate the movement of goods.

DOWNLOAD PDF 

NASSER SAIDI is the president of Nasser Saidi and Associates. He was formerly chief economist of the Dubai International Financial Centre Authority, Lebanon’s economy minister, and a vice governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon.

AATHIRA PRASAD is director of macroeconomics at Nasser Saidi and Associates.

.

.

 

Sustainable transformation of our urban open spaces

Aug 14, 2023

Advertisements

The above-featured image is for illustration and is credit to Times of Malta.

Sustainable transformation of our urban open spaces

Access to nature and environments that provide a sense of refuge or relaxation are being sought.
By Sarah Scheiber
13 August 2023
Photo: Dawra Madwarna/Sarah Scheiber

Climate change, global warming and the exhaustion of fossil fuels have raised the sustainability agenda’s importance. In relation to urban design, sustainability refers to ways in which a city, community or development can meet economic, environmental, social and cultural needs.

Sustainability is not just about energy or resource efficiency but also about responding to community needs, that means, designing for people.

Open spaces are a central component of the urban landscape and, due to the impacts of climate change and demographic trends, are likely to become more, rather than less, important. How can we implement sustainability, and what does it mean in tangible terms when considering the planning and design of urban open spaces?

Numerous studies have shown that green open spaces in urban areas potentially provide several benefits concerning the three dimensions of sustainable development. These are social, environmental and economic aspects that should be considered in an integrated way. To achieve these benefits, various planning and design principles must be considered. Research on the planning and design of urban open spaces in Malta has shown that five principles require attention.

The first is creating recreational areas within urban areas. Recreational areas must be accessible to all – including those who do not drive. The closer we live to green open spaces, the more viable walking and using public transport is.

 

 

Research on the planning and design of urban open spaces in Malta has shown that five principles require attention

 

 

The second principle is thinking about a network and ensuring connectivity – improving street design for walking and cycling, and providing a network of high-quality public spaces facilitating public transport use. This can reduce many short car trips, making urban areas more accessible and attractive.

The third principle investigates maximising the presence of vegetation and its potential for multifunctionality. Integrating and increasing vegetation within urban open spaces improves air quality, creating comfortable microclimates and mitigating climate change impacts such as extreme flooding.

Local surveys have shown that access to nature and environments that provide a sense of refuge or relaxation are being sought in urban areas.

The fourth principle ensures socially inclusive processes and culturally responsive proposals. Engaging with local communities to respond to cultural preferences and create a sense of ownership for public spaces is essential for successful transformations.

The final principle calls for good governance: Creating a governance structure that ‘champions’ and drives the implementation of community participatory methodologies and cross-sectoral collaborations is an integral component.

Research has shown potential solutions to reclaim urban open spaces. All it takes is some re-thinking and being open to implementing innovative solutions.

Sarah Scheiber is an urban designer, spatial planner and a lecturer.

Sound Bites

  • Vegetation in urban areas improves air quality. Leaf surfaces absorb nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide, while particulate matter deposited on leaves is absorbed into the ground as they fall or are washed by rain. Urban canyons (high densities/tall buildings) create concentrated pollution. Research shows that increased planting (green roofs, trees, etc) increases deposition of nitrogen oxides and particulates.
  • Active lifestyles are essential for physical health. Neighbourhood parks are typically too small to support aerobic activity such as walking or jogging required for adults. Neighbourhood walkability is thus crucial for supporting daily physical activity.  One study showed that walkable green spaces, including tree-lined streets, in urban residential areas increased longevity for the elderly. Additionally, access to nature reduces stress and improves general well-being.

For more soundbites, click on https://www.facebook.com/RadioMochaMalta.

DID YOU KNOW?

  • Trees/vegetation could result in shaded surfaces being 11-25°C cooler than peak temperatures of unshaded surfaces and reducing peak summer temperatures by 1 to 5°C.
  • Tree pits can be designed as stormwater catchments, thereby reducing rainwater run-off in dense urban areas.
  • Typically, streets makeup 80 per cent of public space in cities and thus also need to provide for social activity, not just transportation.

For more trivia, see: http://www.um.edu.mt/think.

.

.

 

 

Climate change puts sovereigns at downgrade risk, study finds

Aug 7, 2023

Advertisements

Climate change puts sovereigns at downgrade risk, is found in a study that simulated the economic impact of climate change on current sovereign credit ratings.

Climate change puts sovereigns at downgrade risk, study finds

By Mark John

 

The above-featured image is of  A man walks past a coal-fired power plant in Shanghai
A man walks past a coal-fired power plant in Shanghai, China, October 14, 2021. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo

 

Summary

  • Rising emissions scenario leads to 59 downgrades
  • Paris Agreement path would minimise credit impact
  • Heatwaves already seen damaging global economy

 

Aug 7 (Reuters) – A global failure to curb carbon emissions will lead to rising debt-servicing costs for 59 nations within the next decade, according to a study that simulated the economic impact of climate change on current sovereign credit ratings.

Among them, China, India, the United States and Canada could expect higher costs as their credit scores fall by two notches under a “climate-adjusted” ratings system, the study published in the Management Science journal on Monday found.

“Our results support the idea that deferring green investments will increase costs of borrowing for nations, which will translate into higher costs of corporate debt,” researcher Patrycja Klusak said of the study led by the University of East Anglia (UEA) and the University of Cambridge.

Rising debt costs would be just one extra facet of the overall economic damage which climate change is already causing. Insurance giant Allianz estimates that recent heatwaves will already have shaved 0.6% points off global output this year.

While ratings agencies acknowledge the vulnerability of economies to climate change, they have so far been cautious in quantifying those risks in their ratings exercises because of uncertainties about the likely extent of the damage.

The UEA/Cambridge study trained artificial intelligence models on S&P Global’s existing ratings and then combined that with climate economic models and S&P’s own natural disaster risk assessments to create new ratings for various climate scenarios.

A downgrade to 59 sovereigns emerged from a so-called RCP 8.5 scenario of emissions that keep rising. By comparison, 48 sovereigns experienced downgrades between January 2020 and February 2021 during the turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic.

If the planet manages to stick to the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement, with temperatures held under a two-degree rise, sovereign credit ratings would under the simulation see no impact in the short-term and only limited long-term effects.

A worst-case scenario of high emissions through to the end of the century would on the other hand result in higher global debt-servicing costs, rising up to the hundreds of billions of dollars in current money, the model found.

While developing nations with lower credit scores are seen hit hardest by the physical effects of climate change, nations with the highest ranking credit scores were likely to face more severe downgrades simply because they have furthest to fall.

“There are no winners,” Klusak said in an interview.

The findings come as regulators around the world seek to better understand just how much damage to economies and the global financial system to expect from climate change. A European Central Bank paper last year urged greater clarity in how those risks were being built into credit ratings.

S&P Global Ratings has published the environmental, social and governance (ESG) principles used in its credit ratings which include reference to the risk of economic damage from climate change and the costs associated with mitigating it. It declined to comment on the UEA/Cambridge study.

Fitch Ratings pointed to its system of “ESG Relevance Scores” as including factors such as exposure to environment impacts as one component in its assessments.

“These are longstanding and increasingly important rating factors which we continue to weigh in our analysis and publish frequent research and commentary upon,” it said in response to a request for comment.

Reuters Graphics

Writing and reporting by Mark John; Editing by Hugh Lawson

.

.

MENA countries need to invest more than $500 Billion in urban regeneration programs

Jul 4, 2023

Advertisements

MENA countries need to invest more than $500 Billion in urban regeneration programs to unlock sustainable debt and inclusive economic development

A PRESS RELEASE  in Al Bawaba Published on 4 July 2023, covered the need for all MENA countries to invest $500 Billion in their respective urban regeneration programs as per a Strategy& Middle East report, part of the PwC network.

Fady Halim

Countries across the Middle East and North Africa region must integrate environmental, social and governance (ESG) principles into their urban regeneration strategies to build inclusive economic development and preserve cultural heritage, according to the latest research by Strategy& Middle East, part of the PwC network.
The necessity for urban regeneration is seen across the region, with unplanned or so-called ‘informal settlements’ continuing their rapid growth: 40% of the populations of both Cairo and Makkah live in such settlements. Meanwhile, emissions from new construction activity and ongoing building operations represent 37% of energy-related emissions and 34% of global energy demand.
“As recently as 2018, roughly 31 per cent of those in the Arab world living in cities did so in decaying neighborhoods and dwellings. Our analysis shows that it would cost the region US$500 billion to regenerate a sample of 15 densely populated cities – such as in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. This injection of capital and urban planning has enormous potential to transform the livelihoods of millions of people, directly or indirectly,” said Karim Abdallah, Partner with Strategy& Middle East.
While economic growth delivers social and economic benefits, rapid and unplanned urbanization can create economic, environmental and social issues, from sprawl and decay, to displaced communities and neglected cultural and historical sites.
The Strategy& report points out that several Middle East urban regeneration efforts are already underway, notably Jeddah’s Al Balad district and downtown Sharjah in the UAE. However, these programs must strike a balance between improvement without gentrification, meet housing demands while preserving neighborhood aesthetics, and enhance socio-economic conditions while safeguarding their historical heritage and social fabric.
Unlike traditional development, urban regeneration must not only breathe new life into old districts that helps improve quality of life and economic opportunity, but also be financially viable for the government agencies, developers and financial institutions sponsoring these projects.
An ESG-based strategy therefore can ensure that programs conform to growing demand for ESG compliance from investors and banks while opening up further investment and financing avenues. In 2021 alone, over $1.6 trillion in sustainable debt was issued, with a third of that specifically linked to ESG targets. Additionally, by reviving decaying districts, an ESG-based strategy can also restore much-needed housing stock, commercial space and support with tourism development that many Middle East countries are seeking.
“When linked to ESG principles, urban regeneration acts as a powerful tool to mitigate the common challenges of regeneration. Whether we’re talking about better infrastructure, construction efficiencies or energy efficiency, sustainability is integral to the environmental goal,” commented Charly Nakhoul, Partner with Strategy& Middle East.
Several nations, including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, have set out net-zero strategies recognizing the significance of preserving the social fabric and engaging with communities to maintain cohesive and healthy societies.
“Urban regeneration is integral to the effective management of the MENA region’s population growth,” said Fady Halim, Partner with Strategy& Middle East. “By implementing a ‘LIFE’ approach, which integrates ESG principles into urban regeneration projects, a variety of sustainability, socio-economic, cultural and quality of life goals can be achieved. These outcomes will have a lasting impact; including providing better life opportunities, fostering thriving communities, and creating financial incentives for continuous urban revival and development,” he added.
For GCC countries to achieve sustainable financing and inclusive socio-economic development, they must embed ESG principles in a series of L-I-F-E phases for urban regeneration.
Learn (and listen): Projects must begin with a period of listening and learning from residents, businesspeople, and property owners. Sponsors must understand the area’s socio-economic, cultural, and historical characteristics and the community’s needs. Effective communication among all stakeholders is vital to ensure the project aligns within the context of the overall city.
Integrate: ESG principles must be seamlessly integrated into every aspect of the project, from exploratory conversations and planning to design and implementation; and from ongoing operations to managing the assets over the long term.
Fix: It is important to fix ESG targets and other key performance indicators that translate the commitment into a tangible, measurable effort.
Earn: From these actions; stakeholders earn their rewards. Community members gain a higher quality of life, and the public and private-sector sponsors ultimately benefit from their investments.

For governments across the region, urban regeneration is a social and economic imperative – their national security depends on the maintenance of cohesive societies and empowered individuals. Moreover, urban regeneration projects can only deliver these outcomes if they integrate ESG principles built around transparency, fairness, integrity and inclusion. L-I-F-E phases can provide policymakers and developers with a powerful roadmap to successful regeneration and towards building sustainable urban centers of the future.

Oil leaves invisible footprint on Gulf’s non-oil economies

Jun 20, 2023

Advertisements
.

Oil leaves invisible footprint on Gulf’s non-oil economies

.
Touted progress in diversifying Gulf economies beyond the fossil fuel rent comes with a caveat. Oil and gas revenues indirectly propel large chunks of the non-oil economy through public expenditures such as wages, subsidies and infrastructure spending.
.
This picture shows cranes on a construction site with a backdrop of the Dubai skyline, including Burj Khalifa, the world’s tallest building, on May 23, 2023. – GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP via Getty Images
.

Sebastian Castelier
@SCastelier

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the non-oil segment of Gulf economies to grow 45% faster than the overall gross domestic product (GDP) this year, which includes the oil and gas sector. The figure is in line with the 2000-2019 average trend.

This follows a unique situation in 2022 when the Gulf’s overall gross domestic product expanded 57% faster than the non-oil segment after oil prices surged to their highest levels since 2008 as Western sanctions against Russia threatened to disrupt global oil supply. Even so, the World Bank noted in a May 2023 report that Gulf economies’ “stellar growth” last year “was not just a result of buoyant hydrocarbon prices but also continued growth of non-oil economies.”

“Hopefully by 2030, I wouldn’t care if the oil price is zero”, Saudi Arabia’s finance minister Mohammed Al Jadaan told CNN in 2017. But the prospect of decoupling the Gulf’s overall economy from its main export commodity in the near future has long been exaggerated.

“It is a mixed picture,” said Justin Alexander, director of Khalij Economics, a consulting firm. “Looking at just non-oil GDP figures is misleading.” Parts of the economy, he said, “are basically the result of the recycling of oil revenues through government spending rather than independent value creation.” Since oil revenues still account for about two-thirds of Saudi Arabia’s government revenue, the kingdom remains a petrostate.

Oil is sticky 

Across Gulf economies, most economic developments are directly or indirectly driven by government spending, according to Jalal Qanas, an assistant professor in economics at Qatar University. The share of Gulf countries’ GDP from government expenditure has been trending up since the 2007-09 global financial crisis. In 2021, IMF data showed that it ranged from 29% in the UAE to 52% in Kuwait.

The fossil fuel rent’s invisible footprint runs deep into Gulf’s non-oil economy, from grocery shopping, entertainment activities, cab rides, and cars paid with public sector wages to flats bought with subsidized housing loans and wedding ceremonies funded by marriage grants. Alexander called it “complicated interlinkages” between Gulf’s economies and governments. Yet, non-oil economies are the cornerstone of everyday life in the Gulf region, a major source of employment and social interactions.

In Qatar, the government has wound down its public spending frenzy estimated at $300 billion ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2022. “Once you turn off the tap, will the private sector survive?” Qanas asked. “We need to wait at least one to two years to see how the country’s private sector will behave with less government spending”

Saudi Arabia launched the $1.3 trillion Shareek initiative in 2021 to push companies to invest domestically, particularly in the non-oil economy. But there is a catch: two of the initiative’s largest contributors are the kingdom’s top fossil fuel giants, national oil company Saudi Aramco and petrochemical firm SABIC.

Also, the private sector has done a poor job so far of converting the Gulf’s fossil fuel rent into economic sectors that can stand on their own. Corporate performance in Gulf economies, although it varies between countries and industries, is deteriorating. Profitability of the median firm in the region plummeted from 15.2% in 2007 to 4.1% in 2021, the IMF found.

Dubai has “set an example” 

A notable exception is Dubai, where oil output peaked in 1991. The emirate’s oil sector slipped from about half of the local economy 50 years ago to only 1% of pre-pandemic GDP as the sheikhdom, one of the seven that form the UAE, built the Gulf’s first post-oil economy. In the third quarter of 2022, wholesale, retail trade, real estate, construction, manufacturing, and financial and insurance activities accounted for 60% of its GDP. The emirate’s push to become a global hub decouples its economy further from the region’s oil boom and bust cycles.

Tourism and real estate insulate Dubai’s economy from the wider Gulf. Seven out of ten tourists who visited Dubai in the first quarter of 2023 did not come from the Middle East, while top non-resident buyers of real estate in Dubai in 2022 were Russian, British, Indian, German, and French citizens.

Dubai may be the first, but it will not be the last Gulf post-oil economy. Omani luxury fragrance brand Amouage sells its perfume in more than 80 countries, Bahrain is a fintech hub for the Middle East, Qatar makes its mark in global sporting events, and Muslim pilgrims from all over the world flock to Saudi Arabia’s Mecca.

“Dubai has set an example for the region, and now Gulf countries are all trying, I would not say to copy, but to learn from what Dubai did,” Qanas said.

 

Read more on Al-Monitor : https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/05/oil-leaves-invisible-footprint-gulfs-non-oil-economies#ixzz85AYUK0ty

.

.

This site uses functional cookies and external scripts to improve your experience.