What prospects for a balanced economic cooperation ?
A meeting of the Algerian and Russian intergovernmental commission was held in Algiers on September 18 to 20. An Algero-Russian Joint Commission whilst meeting political convergences and acknowledging Russia’s as well as Algeria’s efforts to stabilize the price of oil, a call was launched for a widening of cooperation based on a closer and win-win sharing partnership.
The concerned sectors are particular areas of professional training, scientific and technical research, industry, transport, civil nuclear and of renewable energy.
At the International Fair of Algiers last May, in which Russia was the guest of honour, its delegation reported that three Russian companies were ready to invest in Algeria through a long term partnership in areas such as green energy, industrial and household waste treatment and management of water resources.
Concerning cooperation in renewable energy, the Russian Minister highlighted the interest of his country in the vast renewable energy programme launched by Algeria to develop a capacity of 4,500 megawatts by year 2030.
Three companies, Uralvagonzavod, PAO NPK. and ZAO Transmachholding are interested in projects with Algerian partners with the objective of the development of assembly of rolling plants, the creation of centres of services in the rail sector and the production of agricultural combine machines.
In addition, the Russian company KAMAZ PAO, the largest producer of trucks in Russia, is ready to make proposals for partnership in the field of industrial vehicles production assembly plants.
What about exchanges between Russia and Algeria, two competing economies in the field of oil and gas?
The laws of economics being immune to political slogans, these two countries are currently facing budgetary tensions characterized by a significant decline in their foreign exchange reserves and the devaluation of their respective currencies; although not wanting to be utopian as through not comparing comparable for Russia is nevertheless a great economic and military power.
Trade between Algeria and Russia, apart from military equipment and armaments, that was $ 175 million in 2002, reached $ 530 million in 2014. The balance was clearly not in favour of Algeria, especially when one realizes that $ 523 million of the $ 530 million represent products imported by Algeria with Russian suppliers. The remaining seven million Dollars, represents the small value of Algerian exports, including three million Dollars in food products destined for Russia.
We therefore are witnessing a timid progression since the volume of the two-way trade off any military equipment reached $ 885 million in 2015.
For 2016, according to official statistics cited by Algeria Press Service, we have a 65.3% increase, about $ 2 billion, of which 1.4 billion Dollars were military equipment. To rebalance trade in fields of industry with the Department of National Defense as I pointed out in an interview (1) with a private television on September 20, 2017 is in need to be looked at and can thereby be developed.
There remains only $ 600 million outside of military equipment so it is down from 2015.
Thus Russian military imports are important, the Russians for their commercial balance would need perhaps to look into contributing towards a military industry in the context of import substitution in Algeria.
Exchanges between Russia and Algeria are not that substantial if compared to imports / exports of each Russia and Algeria. All commercial transactions between Algeria and Russia which, according to the Bank of Algeria, should be carried out in Rubble, would perhaps energize more exchange work?
But what would the public and private Algerian companies provide in return to Russia above all knowing that Algeria whose revenues are 97 / 98% directly and / or indirectly drawn from exports (50% off hydrocarbons from the derivatives of hydrocarbons), is currently going through budgetary tensions.
In short, the trade imbalance is obviously to the disadvantage of Algeria, but because of Russia’s own financial difficulties, substantial money inflows should not be expected in Algeria. It would instead be of a contribution in terms of technology transfer and managerial streaming that should be planned and put high on any future bilateral cooperation.
At the start of this week, we would like to republish this essay of Naseem Javed, a corporate philosopher, world-class speaker, author and Chairman of Mentorian Worldwide; a think tank on Image Supremacy of Innovative Excellence & amp; Entrepreneurial Leadership. It is all about Entrepreneurialism in this day and age and how it will yet again be re-modelling the world economy. In these times where at the outset of the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution, everything around us that we have this far taken for granted seem to undergo change at a whirlwind speed, Globalisation has for its own benefit got the various parts of the world closer to one another than ever before in terms of exchange and accessibility to exchange. In effect and in view of that, we could safely endorse the notion of Naseem’s proposed Technocalamity helping to quadruple Trade or goods and services exchange is increasingly evident everywhere one looks, especially in relation to those hot spots of the MENA region.
It was published first in AMEinfo of April 9th, 2017.
This is when nouveau entrepreneurialism becomes intertwined with technoclamity. It is driven by alpha dreamers and creates a peaceful and very powerful collaborative Synthesis with the unique ability to dance together in perfect time.
Nations that are smart enough to understand real innovative excellence and can deploy massive grassroots programs as national agendas and support their entrepreneurial base will participate in such global races. The rest will see the spectators cheering others to success.
National leaderships around the globe are calling out clear and loud for top-level mandates on creating successful exportability and innovative excellence necessary to ensure their own country’s image supremacy of economical performance and global respectability.
Nations are focusing on the opening up of fair trade with many dozens of countries – an expothon strategy; a powerful modulation of local national entrepreneurialism with unlimited global markets in a systematic and long-term deployment a hot topic. Smart nations are smart enough to know the difference.
Make the world great again.
Collaborative Synthesis is a new global age phenomenon that concentrates on re-thinking and re-looking at the world, all over again, like never before, village by village, city by city; it requires that we re-explore the landscape of richness with new minds, visions of 2020, new sets of eyes and with raw, wild entrepreneurial imagination.
Collaborative Synthesis is a highly integrated, technology based real time superior performance and collaborative progressions deployed simultaneously in dozens of countries with fascinating ease. It’s global age rapid deployment of innovative excellence with new execution styles coming together to create a massive impact. This is new thinking re-trained, new visions re-engineered and new business models re-calibrated. It’s a new blend of massive economical development that is synthesised at a new mix cycle rate, boldly declaring old economical thinking and business models ineffective.
This is neither the fourth nor the fifth industrial revolution; it’s a brand new renaissance of new global thinking.
Very soon, 20 billion smart devices in the hands of a few billion alpha dreamers will start dancing in synchronisation at the same beat. This will be a real living tsunami of Technocalamity; it will be like being inside a big screen sci-fi film via goggles in your own private space with your choice and time.
The earth will vibrate with grassroots prosperity. Such a world will use primal needs of mankind as a principal guide and overtake destructive maneuvering of self-interest-agendas. Alpha dreamers are like the new global age pioneers of today, liberating old thought leaderships of yesterdays.
The world is so big, so colourful and so wide open to massive collaboration; it has been the last century’s dogmatic destruction, blindfolded by fake news, bad economical models and for-hire incompetent leaderships.
New separation and new divides:
The new prosperity demands a brand new space to house such new thinking and new styles of business structures. A complete separation from the old systems and thinking must take place. The start of the e-commerce revolution flourished with a brand new set of rules, new procedures, complete new looks and new types of staff on brand new floors, with special thinking and skills. The E-commerce revolution was never an extension of the previous industrial revolution. It was a brand new umbrella, far superior in thinking and execution. Without brand new separate facilities, new styles of teams and new protocols, e-commerce would have collapsed on greasy factory floors and would have been misfiled in old secretarial pools. The old management like viruses was separated, old contagious mentalities were blocked and restricted, only newly trained and qualified IT specialist had round the clock access to the air-conditioned humming rooms working as new pulsating hearts of the innovative organisations. This was prevalent across the corporate world and very recent in the main frame computer era.
Unless frequent flyers are pulled out of the cockpits and replaced by real professional pilots we cannot land safely. The grassroots prosperity failures of past era can no longer be solved by the same system and leadership that created it. A brand new page and new teams in new locations are mandatory.
Today’s deniers are now the new enemy of growth, fake media now the new enemy of the nation, and the incompetency the new burden to new transformation. Identify, isolate, transform and move forward.
Collaborative Synthesis has arrived in full swing. Feel the rhythm, learn the new dance, enjoy the beat and musicology of new free technologies and the let the spectators watch.
The new challenges of 2020
Beneficiaries: The silent majority, seeking practical and fundamentalist view for deployment of local prosperity issues, anywhere across the globe will benefit. Entrepreneurs believing in “extreme value creation” while rejecting “value manipulations” and alpha dreamers embracing this new global age and Technocalamity will have great success.
Enemies: The establishment which is determined NOT to change is the adversary. Populace brainwashed on fake media and bureaucracy dependent job seekers are the opponents. Ignoramus of the new global age world will try to beat the path down for those pushing on the way up
Adjustments: Arrange a bold and open debate, create a small but high-profile forum, and debate, engage and fight out in open; spin hard so it finally curdles into something solid. It’s not important who is right or wrong; what is important is the real truth. We must continually seek to find why the truth is so hidden, and why solutions are so prohibited. It will not be an easy process. Courage and stamina will be mandatory. Unlimited prosperity will emerge.
Discover and define economical nationalism. Make your own country great by first adopting a positive and logical approach to national prosperity. Discover how to work successfully with one country and later multiply such skills to expand to 200 countries. Fair trading is wide open all over the world. Boycotts and closed trade are the destructive thinking, caused by globalisation based on serving only selected groups. Mankind wants to depend on its natural survival strategy and has now figured out that enough is enough and the time for big change has already arrived.
Sustainability in Development in the World of Today has become a concern for one and all for some time. The UN in its “Gathering a body of global agreements” has written the following definition of Sustainable Development.It is a development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Within this definition two key concepts come to light:
the concept of ‘needs’, in particular the essential needs of the world’s poor, to which overriding priority should be given; and
the idea of limitations imposed by the state of technology and social organization on the environment’s ability to meet present and future needs.
The aim is an economic and social development that must be defined in terms of sustainability in all countries with all required variations depending on the specifics of each country, etc.
Also, development should involve a progressive transformation of economy and society through concern for social equity between generations that must logically be extended to equity within each generation.
In our view, all the above is fine but we feel there is still some gaps between these precepts drawn at international level and the down to earth practicalities of everyday life in the discrete sets of different countries.
There has been an agreement in Paris in December 2015 followed by its signing off in Marrakesh the following year but up until now, we have yet to see any follow up. There is even talk of this agreement going to the sideways with new world leaders washing their hands off it.
In the meantime, the World Economic Forum as always at the forefront of these concerns, produced the following article written by Andrea Willige, Formative Content and published on Monday 20 March 2017. Here it is repreduced with thanks to the WEF and compliments to the author.
The SDG Index measures 149 countries, comparing their current progress with a baseline measurement taken in 2015.
Here are the top performers this year:
Image: SDG Index and Dashboards
Across all 17 goals, Sweden tops the list of countries surveyed. It is, on average, 84.5% of the way to achieving the targets envisaged for 2030.
Following closely were Scandinavian neighbours, Denmark and Norway, with Finland in fourth place. Western European countries, plus Iceland (ninth), took the remainder of the top 10 slots and four of the top 20.
Also in the top 20 were Canada (13th), the Czech Republic (15th) and Slovenia (17th). Asia-Pacific’s top performers Japan, Singapore and Australia rounded off the list at 18th, 19th and 20th, respectively.
Don’t rest on your laurels
The SDG Index underlines that despite achieving high percentages, all countries still have their work cut out to close the remaining gap.
Image: SDG Index and Dashboards
The report stresses that many high-income countries perform well in areas such as economic development but still fall short of achieving a good all-round SDG performance. This is because they face significant challenges in specific areas such as climate-change mitigation, income inequality, gender equality and education.
The top three, for example – Sweden, Denmark and Norway – will need to focus particularly on evolving their energy systems from high-carbon to low-carbon sources to fulfill the environmental sustainability goals.
Countries where the report suggests support and solidarity is needed most:
Image: SDG Index and Dashboards
Not unexpectedly, some of the world’s poorest countries are near the bottom of the ranking. The SDGs are, after all, a demanding bunch: including a call to end extreme poverty and hunger, universal access to healthcare, education, safe water and sanitation, modern energy services, and decent work. These areas continue to be an uphill struggle for many nations.
“We know that some countries may be puzzled by their scores and that some will be unhappy with their place in the global rankings,” say Aart de Geus and Jeffrey D Sachs in the preface to the report. But if there are any mistakes or gaps in the data, they add, the beauty of an online report is that they can be corrected as quickly possible.
For those countries that aren’t yet showing results, such as the Central African Republic in the chart below, assistance may be necessary. It could come through international mechanisms such as foreign direct investment, technology sharing and global tax reform (so poor countries can fight tax evasion by international investors).
SDG Dashboards for Sweden and Central African Republic
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has a GDP of about $350 billion and a high GDP per capita, but it is a commodity-based economy, with hydrocarbons accounting for 40% of total exports and 38% of its GDP. In its drive towards diversifying its economy and reduce its dependence on oil revenues, the UAE programmed for tourism, financial and construction sectors to receive most of its investments. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity accounted for 42% of output growth, transport and communication for 23%, wholesale and retail trade for 16.5% and catering and hospitality for 15.5% whilst construction and agriculture contracted these last 2 years. All of these activities are manned by active populations which according to all governments agencies and local media are made of more than 85% of expatriate population with 71% mostly Indian. The UAE and India to enjoy stronger trade and cultural ties further have to come together in a range of agreements .
Arabian Business.com came up on Monday, 13 March 2017 with this article by Hamad Buamim, thus providing an idea as it were from the inside to show where the UAE’s heart lies hence the subject of the proposed article on tying ever more closer relationships with India. Like all countries of the GCC, the UAE has some difficulty in accepting to apply some sort of minimal fair ‘Equal Opportunity’ treatment to all their residents, if only to sedenterise them better. It must however be said on this chapter, the UAE have prominently shown the way, by being at the forefront of the other members of the GCCs.
[ . . . ] The UAE and India have enjoyed strong trade and cultural ties that date back more than a century. This unique relationship has strengthened in recent decades amid an increase in bilateral trade and investment. Non-oil trade between India and Dubai has accounted for the largest volume of trade, amounting to $19bn in the first nine months of 2016, and solidifying India’s position as the emirate’s second-largest trading partner.
The Indian business community in the UAE has contributed significantly to bilateral relations and trade. In fact, 29 percent of all new companies that registered with Dubai Chamber last year were Indian, bringing the total number of Indian members to over 36,000. At the same time, India remains one of the top export markets for Dubai Chamber members, with exports and re-exports to the country growing steadily in recent years to reach $1.7bn by the end of 2016.
Yet, we see huge potential within India’s fast-growing economy that has yet to be explored. The two countries share many synergies, especially within the areas of agriculture, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing and metals.
The world’s fifth-largest economy has renewed its focus on foreign trade, while it has also outpaced China in exports of locally made retail and lifestyle products. At the same time, it has stepped up efforts to strengthen its economic cooperation with the UAE in the areas of agriculture, food security, energy, defence, technology and healthcare.
India has put forth a clear roadmap to fuel future economic growth that places a major emphasis on expanding its infrastructure and boosting foreign direct investment. The country is building several cluster cities and recently opened its first international finance services centre in Ahmedabad. New policies are also focussed on turning India into a manufacturing hub for pharmaceutical and medical products under the “Make In India” initiative.
There are also exciting new technologies that India is embracing, such as blockchain, which has now been successfully tested by the country’s central bank. Smart city concepts are also gaining momentum and the adoption of innovative solutions stands to make the country a major hotspot for smart city developments.
As a country that has excelled in rapidly expanding its infrastructure and economy, I believe that the UAE can offer the right level of expertise and investment needed to meet growing demand within India and help turn the country’s ambitions into a reality. [ . . . ]
As put by Bloomberg in an article by Jeanna Smialek dated April 10, 2015 where she said: ” Get ready for a new economic order by 2030 / 2050. In the world 15 years from now, the U.S. will be far less dominant, several emerging markets will catapult into prominence, and some of the largest European economies will be slipping behind.”
A new economic order by 2030 / 2050 ?
Last week an article on the same subject and written by Lianna Brinded, Markets Editor, Business Insider and published in collaboration with Business Insider on Thursday 9 February 2017 by the WEF goes like below.
A prediction: the world’s most powerful economies in 2030
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), one of the world’s largest professional-services firms, just released its predictions for the most powerful economies in the world by 2030.
The report, titled “The long view: how will the global economic order change by 2050?” ranked 32 countries by their projected global gross domestic product by purchasing power parity (PPP).
PPP is used by macroeconomists to determine the economic productivity and standards of living among countries across a certain time period.
While PwC’s findings show some of the same countries right near the top of the list in 13 years, they also have numerous economies slipping or rising massively by 2030 [ . . . ]
The PwC Report Key findings
This report sets out our latest long-term global growth projections to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 85% of world GDP.
Key results of our analysis (as summarised also in the accompanying video) include:
The world economy could more than double in size by 2050, far outstripping population growth, due to continued technology-driven productivity improvements
Emerging markets (E7) could grow around twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average
As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th)
The US could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27’s share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050
UK could be down to 10th place by 2050, France out of the top 10 and Italy out of the top 20 as they are overtaken by faster growing emerging economies like Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam respectively
But emerging economies need to enhance their institutions and their infrastructure significantly if they are to realise their long-term growth potential.
As per reliable sources, declining solar equipment prices, and a slowdown in major markets such as China led to an 18% dropping in 2016 to a Global Clean Energy Investments at $287.5 billion. Although a smaller market than the United States, China or Japan, the Indian solar energy sector is in the middle of unprecedented growth, fed by rapidly declining tariffs, improved technology and a global oversupply of photovoltaic panels and other material, made mainly in China per Soumya Sarkar in her India’s solar dream rests on Chinese imports on 17 August 2016.
India is nevertheless expanding as the fastest among those major nations. With over 300 million houses in India, over 300 days of sunshine, and an ambitious target of 40 GW of rooftop solar by 2020, there should have been a solar revolution in Indian homes. Yet, the situation on the ground is quite different as reported by Juhi Chaudhary , author of our proposed article, reproduced here below.
The above trends would of course be relevant to the MENA region due if only to all Non-Residents Indians (NRIs) flow of remittances from the GCC countries somehow helping in the process described in this article.
Solar panels installed on Indira Paryavaran Bhawan in New Delhi. (Image by Central Public Works Department, Government of India)
India’s capital has a new target to generate a gigawatt of solar power by 2020 and 2 GW by 2025 through rooftop installations, with the government announcing a slew of incentives.
Delhi may be the next big solar city, if the government of India’s National Capital Territory has its latest wish fulfilled. It has set a target of generating 1 GW of solar power a day through rooftop installations by 2020 and 2 GW by 2025. That’s far higher than targets set by states many times the size of Delhi.
“Making Delhi a solar city is on our 70-point agenda,” says Arvind Kejriwal, Delhi’s Chief Minister. “This policy which is very progressive will help in providing clean and green energy. Rooftop solar systems offer sustainable energy, environmental benefits, low gestation period and minimum transmission and distribution losses.”
Delhi has a peak power demand of 6.5 GW a day. Quite often, this cannot be met, and people face power cuts in temperatures that cross 40 degrees Celsius. There is enough power in the national grid, but transmission and distribution (T&D) lines are too antiquated to meet peak demand.
Decentralised power generation through rooftop solar installations would take care of T&D problems, and bring down Delhi’s huge carbon footprint.
To turn this dream into reality, the government has proposed tax breaks; 30% subsidy on capital investment; making it mandatory for government and commercial buildings to deploy rooftop solar panels; and for distribution companies to meet at least 75% of their solar renewable purchase obligation (RPO) within Delhi.
Individual households can put up their own rooftop panels. They will get an incentive depending on the amount of power they generate. Those who do not want to make the investment can get a firm to install the solar panels free of cost, and then buy the power from the firm.
New electricity meters have to be installed for the scheme to work, meters that turn one way when the utility is selling power to you, and the other way when you are generation excess power and selling it to the utility. The cost and relative scarcity of these ‘net’ meters has been a big obstacle in the rollout of solar power generation at the household level.
In its new policy, the government has tried to solve this by grouping multiple homes, factories or offices under one ‘net’ meter. This should be of greatest help to large consumers with multiple buildings and electricity connections. It may also help avoid arguments about who owns the terrace in a shared building. The efficacy of this group net metering scheme will be keenly watched.
On top of being able to sell power back to the utility, for the next three years there is an incentive of Rs 2 (3 US cents) per additional unit generated. Aruna Kumarankandath of the Renewable Energy Programme in the New Delhi-based think tank Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) says, “This is a step in the right direction. So far 18 states have drafted solar policy and Delhi has the best additional generation based incentive to boost rooftop solar.”
Chandra Bhushan, Deputy Director General of CSE, however warns, “The kind of money they have allocated for subsidies will take care of only 100 MW.” That is 10% of the 2020 target.
One big problem is that residents do not want to block up terrace space with solar panels. Terraces have clotheslines and water tanks; they are places where people exercise in the morning and party in the evening.
Now the government has amended the building by-laws so that you can erect a frame on your terrace and then put the panels on the frame, without the tax inspector coming and telling you that your house is higher so you have to pay more property tax.
Plus, you do not even need approval from the municipal corporation to put solar panels on your terrace.
Though the government is silent on this, it still makes sense to check if your building can take the extra weight.
Other challenges remain. A solar panel generating one kilowatt per hour costs Rs 1 lakh (USD 1,500) and takes up around 100 sq. feet. To make money in the long run, one ideally needs to generate in megawatts, but most do not have the space, even if specialised firms take care of the investment. Still, every little will help reduce electricity bills, not to talk of the environment.
Ashutosh Dixit, CEO of URJA – the apex body of around 2,500 resident welfare associations (RWA) in Delhi – welcomes the move. Five RWAs have already installed rooftop solar panels in their offices, he says. But he is worried about solar panels adding to the weight on the building. “The safety issue also needs to be looked into as Delhi gets lots of storms and these panels can easily fly off and injure someone.”
Pujarini Sen, campaigner in environmental NGO Greenpeace, calls the move “a trailblazing step towards fulfilling India’s global climate commitments, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambitious national solar targets, and overall sustainable development. If the entire country moves in this direction, then the long overdue energy revolution in India will be achieved soon.”
As a first step, it will help if the average resident knows where to go and buy a solar panel.