A yellow windsock billowing in the wind set against a dramatic cloudy sky in the countryside. by Francesco Ungaro via pexels
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Yemen Seasonal Agrometeorological Forecast Bulletin March-May 2026 EN-AR
Executive summary
This report provides an overview of expected weather conditions and possible impacts on agriculture in Yemen during March–April–May (MAM) 2026. It is based on forecast information, past rainfall and temperature records, and a comparison with long-term average conditions.
Rainfall is expected to intensify during MAM 2026, with seasonal totals averaging reaching peaks of around 150 mm, particularly observed across the Central Highlands (Sana’a, Raymah, and Dhamar). Above-average rainfall (up to +50%) is projected along the Red Sea coast, Arabian Sea coast, Gulf of Aden, and eastern highland escarpments, while below-average rainfall (up to −40%) may occur in parts of the western Southern Uplands (Ibb and Taiz) and northern Yemen. Temperatures are expected to gradually increase, with above-normal conditions in the highlands and southern uplands, reducing frost risk, observed during previous months.
The expected season coincides with key agricultural activities, including cereal planting, vegetable growth, improving pasture conditions for livestock, and active artisanal fishing along coastal areas. However, the anticipated increase in rainfall may lead to flood occurrences, particularly flash floods, alongside land erosion, livestock parasites, desert locust risks, and market constraints, which may affect livelihoods and further aggravate food insecurity.
Building on this, flood exposure analysis indicates that over 409,000 hectares of cropland and approximately 1.7 million small ruminants are located within the most flood-prone watersheds—particularly in the wadis of Siham, Zabid, Rimah, and Sordod across governorates of al Hudaydh, Sana’a, Ibb, Al Mahwit and Dhamar. More than 65% of the exposed cropland is concentrated in Al Hudaydah Governorate, especially in the Siham basin, while the Zabid basin shows the highest livestock exposure, highlighting the potential for significant agricultural losses during flood events.
While excess rainfall during MAM 2026 alongside may support localized improvements in crop and pasture production, these gains are unlikely to offset broader vulnerabilities. Food security conditions remain fragile due to conflict, market dependence, and economic constraints, underscoring the need for strengthened early warning systems, flood preparedness, climate-resilient agriculture, and improved water management.
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