Assessing Climate Adaptation Plans in the MENA region

INTRODUCTION

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is a complex and multifaceted geographical entity with a distinctive identity (see Figure 1). It extends across two continents and encompasses a diverse array of terrains, ranging from arid deserts to fertile plains, though it is characterized by a predominantly arid and hot climate. It boasts significant natural resources, most notably abundant reserves of oil and natural gas, which wield considerable influence over the economies of some countries in the region. Owing to the unique amalgamation of its climatic attributes, its geographical positioning, and the intricate interplay of geopolitics and socioeconomic conditions within the majority of its constituent nations, the MENA region is one of the most susceptible regions to the physical repercussions of climate change

The region’s vulnerable populations and ecosystems face an array of severe hazards, including drought, heat waves, and other extreme meteorological phenomena. Moreover, the MENA region relies heavily on climate-sensitive agriculture, with a substantial proportion of its populace and economic activity concentrated in coastal zones that are susceptible to flooding. In the forthcoming years and decades, the infrastructure, economy, and demography of the region will face mounting stress as a consequence of the swift escalation in global mean temperatures, erratic precipitation patterns, and rising sea levels. These stressors will disproportionately affect vulnerable groups—such as marginalized communities, women, and youth—exacerbating social disparities, affecting migration trends, and potentially precipitating conflicts. Some scholars have linked the conflict in ‎Syria to the devastating drought caused by climate change impacts. Therefore, climate change adaptation and resilience efforts are imperative for the MENA region to address unique regional vulnerabilities, protect its people and resources, and ensure long-term stability and sustainability in the face of climate challenges. National adaptation plans (NAPs) are highly important to help countries within the region identify medium- and long-term adaptation needs, based on the latest climate science, to enable governments and societies to face climate challenges and develop strategies to address them.

In this context, this article thoroughly examines climate adaptation plans in the MENA region, with a specific focus on Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), using a desk review approach. The assessment aims to respond to the following questions:

• What are the current statuses of NAPs in MENA region countries?
• What challenges, weaknesses, and threats are countries facing in the development of these plans?
• What opportunities can they benefit from in order to implement the NAPs?
• Finally, what are the entry points for mainstreaming adaptation within national planning and budgeting?

The answers to these questions will help in understanding how regional efforts in adaptation planning could be aligned with global efforts to reduce loss and damage, achieve global goals for adaptation, and work toward sustainable development goals.

THE CURRENT STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLANS IN THE MENA REGION

Countries in the MENA region have made efforts to address challenges arising from climate variability and demographic shifts, such as the construction of dams in Morocco to combat drought, the optimization of irrigation water usage in Egypt to accommodate population growth and increased demand for reclaiming arable land, and the construction of centrally air-conditioned towers in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to cope with their hot and humid climate. These countries also will need to respond to future events like rising sea levels as well as recent extreme weather events such as heat waves. Despite these proactive measures, MENA countries have not yet crafted comprehensive climate adaptation plans.

The origins of climate change vulnerability and adaptation efforts in MENA countries can be traced back to countries’ responses to the mandates outlined in Article 4 and Article 12 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). MENA countries have prepared diverse reports aimed at exploring national susceptibility to climate change, planned adaptation measures, and associated requirements. One significant report is the national communication submitted to the UNFCCC, which each MENA country periodically compiles and presents to the Conference of the Parties (COP). This document provides comprehensive insights into a country’s vulnerability; ongoing or required adaptation measures; and necessary means of implementation, including financial, technological, and capacity-building components.

Similarly, the Paris Agreement, as detailed in Article 4, paragraph 2, mandates each participating party to prepare, communicate, and continually update their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), outlining the specific actions they intend to undertake in response to climate change. Furthermore, it calls for the formulation of a NAP to identify medium- and long-term adaptation needs, along with the development and implementation of strategies and programs to address these needs. The reporting framework also includes the Biennial Update Report (BUR), Technology Needs Assessment (TNA), Adaptation Communication (AC), and national strategies, each offering insights into how a country addresses climate change, spanning from assessment to implementation, monitoring, and evaluation.

CURRENT STATUS

Under the UNFCCC framework, all countries in the MENA region are categorized as Non-Annex I Parties (developing countries), have no historical responsibility for human-made climate change, and have the right to benefit from the means of implementation provided by the UNFCCC financial mechanisms. Table 1 presents the status of reports submitted to the UNFCCC by MENA countries, including the distinct stages and circumstances among MENA region countries. These countries can be categorized into the following groupings under each reporting scheme.

National Communications to the UNFCCC

• Lower-income MENA countries, exemplified by Jordan, were the first to submit their Initial National Communications (INCs) in 1997, followed by Egypt and Lebanon in 1999. Conversely, wealthier countries in the MENA region, particularly those reliant on oil exports, such as Saudi Arabia and Oman, presented their INC reports considerably later, in 2005. In contrast, countries grappling with political instability, such as Syria, Iraq, and Palestine, reported their INCs in 2010, 2015, and 2016, respectively.
• Certain countries, particularly Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia, exhibit a pattern of frequent reporting. This proclivity can be attributed to various factors, including political determination, the existence of established institutional structures, the availability of qualified experts, and a willingness to capitalize on the financial support for reporting provided by the UNFCCC’s financial mechanism, the Global Environment Facility, coupled with technical assistance from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
• In contrast, other nations, including Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Palestine, and Syria, face challenges related to a lack of capacity and internal political turmoil. Consequently, they encounter difficulties in consistently reporting to the UNFCCC.
• Libya has yet to submit its INC; according to Libyan officials, it is currently in the preparatory phase.
• Specific oil-exporting nations, with Qatar as a notable example, have chosen a cautious, wait-and-see approach to reporting, primarily because of concerns about potential consequences. Qatar’s 2011 INC submission—the only one it has provided—contains data on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission sources and quantities, GHG mitigation measures, and climate adaptation. Countries such as Qatar appear to be influenced by ongoing allegations from certain nations, including those of the European Union, which attribute the escalating GHG concentrations in the atmosphere to the activities of oil-exporting nations, thereby endangering oil exporters’ primary revenue source. Moreover, these countries do not currently require access to climate finance, a fact that sets them apart from other developing countries that frequently update their reports with the aim of facilitating their access to climate-funding mechanisms.

Nationally Determined Contributions Reports

• All MENA region countries, with the exceptions of Libya and Yemen (owing to their political situation), have submitted their NDCs. The significance attached to these reports, which serve as the primary vehicles for the Paris Agreement, by countries in the region can be attributed to the global consensus on the agreement’s importance. Strong support from major nations like the United States and China has accelerated its adoption, making it one of the fastest multilateral agreements to gain worldwide recognition. This widespread support has fostered trust among the majority of countries, encouraging their active participation and commitment to reporting under the agreement.
• To date, the political situations in Libya and Yemen have prevented these countries from making progress in developing their ‎‎

National Adaptation Plans

• Although all MENA region countries have emphasized the priority of adaptation in their climate change responses since they commenced the reporting process in 1997, only a few have actually developed their NAPs. Notably, Kuwait is the sole country that has submitted its NAP as a standalone document to the UNFCCC.
• Countries like Jordan, which partnered with the German Development Cooperation (GIZ), and the UAE, which funded its NAP through its domestic budget, have employed their updated NDCs as a vehicle to integrate their NAPs.
• Several countries, including Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, have started to develop their national adaptation plans using funds provided by the Green Climate Fund. These countries are at different stages of NAP development, and the completion of their plans is expected within the next two or three years.
• Owing to their respective political situations, Libya and Yemen have made no progress in developing NAPs to date.

CHALLENGES

MENA countries face several critical external challenges in their efforts to adapt to climate change impacts. These challenges will be discussed in the subsequent sections. They are reported by the countries of the region in their national reports or through the international organizations such as the World Meteorological Organization, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and World Bank.

Read more on Carnegie Endowment for international Peace about the region’s:

• Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability
• Climate Finance
• WEAKNESSES
• THREATS
• OPPORTUNITIES

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