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By
EconomicsObservatory – 27 Mar 2026

Photo: for iStock
One reason that cities often lack distinctive architecture is that markets do not fully reward good design. Economic research shows that buildings with distinctive architecture sell for around 15% more than comparable buildings. Architectural quality also spills over to neighbouring properties, which gain roughly 9% in value from being near to well-designed new buildings.
But developers capture only part of these gains while bearing the full cost of better design. As a result, cities may end up with too few distinctive buildings.
To understand what policies might address this problem, it is useful to build an economic model of how developers choose designs and how residents value them, grounding the analysis in the evidence on price premiums and design spillovers.
Simulations based on such a framework suggest that encouraging better design could be of significant benefit to society as a whole. One estimate indicates that the welfare-maximising policy would resemble a subsidy of roughly 10% of construction costs for distinctive buildings.
Economists have long studied housing markets and urban development, but only recently has architectural design itself become a subject of systematic economic research. A growing body of work now examines how the design of buildings affects property markets, neighbourhoods and planning decisions.
One strand of research estimates how architectural quality is reflected in property prices. An early study shows that buildings with distinctive design can command higher prices than otherwise similar buildings (Vandell and Lane, 1989).
More recent research confirms that people are willing to pay for architectural quality. For example, studies that measure the perceived beauty of buildings – using ratings by residents or experts – find that more attractive buildings tend to sell for more.
A second strand of research looks at how architecture affects nearby properties. The design of a building matters not only for the people who live or work inside it. Distinctive architecture can shape the character of streets and neighbourhoods, making surrounding locations more attractive.
In London, for example, properties with a view of buildings rated as more beautiful command higher prices, indicating that people value architectural quality even when they do not occupy the building itself (Ahlfeldt and Holman, 2018). Similarly, a study of the Netherlands finds that protecting distinctive buildings can also raise the value of neighbouring properties (Koster and Rouwendal, 2016). Together, these findings suggest that architectural design generates local spillovers.
A third line of research focuses on how planning systems interact with architectural design. Some cities try to encourage distinctive buildings by offering incentives or regulatory flexibility. For example, in London, buildings designed by well-known architects are often allowed to be significantly taller than comparable developments (Cheshire and Dericks, 2020).
Together, these findings suggest that architecture generates economic value – but they also raise questions about whether markets alone will deliver the level of design quality that people value.
The evidence that architecture affects property values raises an obvious question: if people value distinctive design, why do cities produce so many ordinary buildings? Economic research points to a simple explanation. Developers decide how buildings look, but many of the benefits of good architecture extend beyond the building itself.
When a developer invests in distinctive design, tenants and buyers inside the building may be willing to pay more. But neighbours may also benefit from better surroundings, improved views and a more attractive street environment. Nearby property owners can therefore capture part of the gains created by architectural quality. Because developers cannot fully capture these wider benefits, they may have little incentive to invest in better design.
Economists describe this situation as a positive externality: the social value of architectural quality exceeds the private return to the developer who pays for it. Similar arguments are often used to justify public support for parks, clean air or other urban amenities that benefit many people.
This logic helps to explain why markets may produce too few distinctive buildings, even when residents value better architecture. Developers make rational decisions based on the incentives that they face, but those incentives do not reflect the full value that good design creates for the wider neighbourhood.
While previous research has documented many of these effects, most studies focus on one piece of the puzzle at a time. Some measure how distinctive design affects the price of the building itself. Others estimate how architectural quality spills over to neighbouring properties. A smaller number of studies examine the costs of higher-quality design or the role of planning policies.
Taken together, this body of evidence shows that architecture creates measurable economic value – but it does not by itself tell us what might be the best policy response.
A recent study brings these strands of evidence together in a single framework (Ahlfeldt et al, 2026). This work synthesises dozens of empirical estimates of the value of architectural design and combines them with new evidence on how people value different styles of buildings.
These empirical patterns are then used to build a quantitative model of neighbourhood development that captures how developers choose between ordinary and distinctive designs, and how residents respond to those choices.
Because the model is designed to match the key patterns observed in the data – such as the price premium for distinctive buildings and the spillover effects on nearby properties – it can be used to explore how different policies would affect real-world cities. By simulating how developers and residents respond to changes in incentives, the model allows researchers to evaluate the potential effects of policies aimed at encouraging better architecture.
This makes it possible to move from documenting the value of architectural design to asking a more practical question: what kinds of policies could help cities to achieve more distinctive and attractive built environments, and would that be desirable?
If markets produce too few distinctive buildings, the next question is whether policy can help to correct this imbalance. In principle, the solution is straightforward. When private incentives do not reflect the full social benefits of an activity, economists often recommend policies that encourage the activity until private and social returns are better aligned.
One direct approach would be to subsidise distinctive architectural design. A subsidy would reward developers for the broader benefits that their buildings create for neighbours and the surrounding area. In this sense, supporting architectural quality would resemble policies used to promote clean air and reduce carbon emissions (which constitute a negative externality), such as subsidising electric vehicles.
Cities sometimes use other tools to encourage better design. For example, planning authorities may grant additional development rights to projects with distinctive architecture. In London, buildings designed by well-known architects are often allowed to be substantially taller than comparable developments (Cheshire and Dericks, 2020). Such policies attempt to provide incentives for architectural quality indirectly by offering regulatory advantages.
Another approach is to designate areas where distinctive design is required or strongly encouraged. Historic districts and conservation areas are examples of policies that shape the character of neighbourhoods through planning rules.
While these policies can help to preserve architectural quality in certain locations, they can also have unintended consequences if applied too broadly. For example, if too many distinctive buildings are mandated in a particular district, developers may respond by opting for more ordinary designs in other parts of the city because demand for distinctive architecture has already been met. This could happen even where those other locations might be better suited to high-quality design.
Evaluating these different approaches requires understanding how developers respond to incentives and how architectural spillovers affect surrounding neighbourhoods. Quantitative models of urban development make it possible to compare these policies and assess which ones are most likely to improve the overall quality of the built environment.
The simulations from the quantitative model suggest a clear policy implication. Because developers capture only part of the benefits that are created by distinctive architecture, encouraging better design can increase overall social wellbeing.
In the model calibrated to the available evidence, the policy that performs best resembles a subsidy for distinctive architectural design. Specifically, the welfare-maximising subsidy is around 10% of construction costs for buildings with distinctive design.
Figure 1 illustrates this result, showing how welfare (benefits to society as a whole) changes as subsidies for distinctive architecture increase.
When subsidies are small, encouraging better design improves welfare because the additional architectural spillovers outweigh the costs. But the benefits do not increase indefinitely.
One reason is that tastes for architecture differ across residents. Distinctive buildings command a price premium partly because they are scarce and because some people strongly value living in them. As distinctive buildings become more common, the premium declines. More and more people end up living in buildings with distinctive design even though they do not particularly value it.
A second reason is that developers differ in their ability to deliver distinctive architecture efficiently. Some developers work closely with architects and they can create distinctive designs at relatively low cost. Others find it more expensive to do so. As subsidies increase, more developers are encouraged to adopt distinctive designs, including those who are less efficient at delivering them.
Because the subsidy must be financed, these additional costs matter. At low subsidy levels, the value created by better architecture exceeds the public resources spent. But as subsidies grow larger, the additional buildings encouraged by the policy generate less value while the fiscal cost continues to rise. In the simulations, welfare reaches its maximum when subsidies are around 10% of construction costs and begins to fall if subsidies increase further.
The broader lesson is that architectural design, much like other urban amenities, creates benefits that extend beyond individual buildings. Because these benefits are shared, markets alone may produce too little distinctive architecture. But policies designed to encourage better design also need to be carefully calibrated so that the public resources spent do not exceed the value that they create.
Astana cityscape featuring the iconic Bayterek Tower and modern architecture under cloudy skies. by Valeria Drozdova via pexels

@gov.kz
As part of the Nauryz celebrations in Astana, a demonstration run of a driverless vehicle developed at the Daulet Serikbayev East Kazakhstan Technical University (EKTU) was held. In the future, this prototype could become part of the city’s driverless taxi system.
The presentation took the form of a public demonstration for residents and visitors to Kazakhstan’s capital. According to the Astana City Administration, the vehicle’s software and test route were developed by specialists from the Luban Workshop, which opened at EKTU in Ust-Kamenogorsk in late 2023 with support from China’s Tianjin Vocational Institute.
The project is being implemented as part of an initiative to develop engineering competencies and introduce new technologies, ranging from alternative fuels to AI systems in the transport sector.
At the same time, an agreement was signed to establish the Kazakhstan Engineering Center for the Application and Development of Intelligent Automotive Technologies.
The demonstration run was organised by the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development in collaboration with the capital’s city administration and the IT company Astana Innovations.
The test took place at one of the city’s festive venues. Visitors were able to observe the autonomous vehicle in real time and assess its potential for use in an urban environment.
According to the organisers, the prototype demonstrated the potential for integrating AI technologies into Smart City systems, including navigation, data processing, and interaction with infrastructure.
Authorities view driverless transport as one of the key areas in the development of urban mobility. In the future, such solutions may be integrated into Astana’s infrastructure, including the launch of autonomous taxis.
It was previously reported that Kazakhstan plans to launch pilot projects for driverless taxis in the capital as early as 2026.
At the same time, work is under way to prepare road infrastructure. Digital “passports” for highways are being developed, which are expected to enable the future use of driverless trucks.
Aerial view of wind turbines in a vast desert landscape under a clear blue sky. by Kelly via pexels

Researchers introduce a novel generative AI-driven framework, MMCN (Memory-aware Multi-Conditional generation Network), for forecasting future urban layouts by jointly considering building density, building height, transportation networks, and historical development patterns.
Leveraging a generative architecture-enhanced diffusion model with multi-conditional control, semantic prompt fusion, and spatial memory embedding, MMCN offers a novel approach to modeling complex urban evolution. This framework provides a powerful tool to explore sustainable urban development, demonstrating AI’s transformative potential in urban design.
Environmental sustainability in urbanization has become a critical global concern as cities expand at unprecedented rates. Urban design faces the challenge of making long-term decisions about infrastructure, building development, transportation networks, and land use, all of which shape the future structure and sustainability of cities.
These decisions are inherently complex, as urban growth emerges from the interaction of multiple factors, including building density, building height, road networks, and historical development patterns, which evolve together over time. Traditional urban design methods often struggle to capture these interconnected dynamics, making accurate forecasting of urban development impossible.
In response to this challenge, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a promising tool for modeling complex spatial patterns and supporting data-driven urban planning. Yet, many existing generative AI-based models produce fragmented predictions because they may have difficulty effectively integrating multiple urban development factors or maintaining spatial continuity across large areas.
To address these limitations, researchers at the Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (JAIST) and Waseda University, Japan, developed a novel AI-driven framework called the Memory-aware Multi-Conditional generation Network (MMCN).
The research team was led by Associate Professor Haoran Xie (JAIST and Waseda University) and included Doctoral Student Xusheng Du from JAIST and Professor Zhen Xu from Tianjin University, China, among others.
Their study was published in Sustainable Cities and Society.
Explaining the motivation behind the study, Dr. Xie said, “We aimed to bridge the gap between current AI capabilities and the practical needs of urban planners by developing a predictive model capable of forecasting future urban layouts while simultaneously considering multiple urban development factors and historical evolution patterns, as inspired by the actual decision-making workflow from professional planners.”
The MMCN model relies on multi-temporal spatial data, including building layouts, building density, building height, and transportation networks, which were standardized into 512 × 512-pixel patches for model training. In particular, this model adopted the urban layout data of Shenzhen due to it being the most rapidly developing city in China.
The network architecture combines a diffusion model with a multi-conditional control mechanism, allowing diverse urban factors to guide the generation process. A semantic prompt fusion module encodes information from each input type, while a spatial memory embedding component preserves contextual information from neighboring regions, ensuring continuity across patches.
Multiple conditional generation branches integrated with the diffusion model form the core generative model, enabling the production of realistic, coherent urban layouts that remain consistent with historical patterns.
Data training uses denoising and edge-stitching loss functions to enhance reconstruction accuracy and smooth transitions across patch boundaries. This approach allows MMCN to model complex interactions among urban variables and generate spatially consistent forecasts of urban development.
Experimental results demonstrated the framework’s effectiveness. MMCN outperformed baseline methods such as Pix2Pix, CycleGAN, and Instruct-Pix2Pix, achieving a Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) of 0.885 and a Boundary Intersection over Union (IoU) of 0.642, indicating strong structural fidelity and spatial continuity.
Qualitative analysis further confirmed that MMCN generates realistic, coherent urban layouts with continuous road networks and well-organized building clusters, whereas baseline models often produce fragmented roads, duplicated structures, or disconnected patterns.
These findings highlight the importance of combining multi-factor conditioning, spatial memory mechanisms, and learning from historical patterns within a unified generative framework. Additional cross-city experiments using data from Shanghai and Tianjin in China further demonstrated the model’s ability to produce stable and consistent urban layout predictions under diverse spatial conditions.
Beyond technical performance, MMCN offers practical benefits for urban design. By simulating potential growth scenarios, the framework allows planners to evaluate the long-term consequences of development strategies, supporting more informed and sustainable decisions. This aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly those focused on creating resilient and inclusive cities.
Looking ahead, the researchers envision several enhancements. Integrating climate models could enable assessment of environmental impacts, while including socio-economic data, could support more comprehensive forecasts.
“Interactive planning tools built on MMCN could facilitate community and stakeholder engagement in urban design, promoting collaborative planning,” said Dr. Xie. He added, “Expanding the dataset to include cities with diverse morphologies would improve the model’s generalizability, making it applicable across different urban contexts worldwide.”
In conclusion, MMCN represents a significant advancement in AI-assisted urban design, offering a novel approach to forecasting urban layout evolution by integrating multiple spatial factors and historical patterns.
By producing accurate, spatially coherent predictions, it provides a powerful tool for guiding cities toward more resilient, livable, and sustainable futures in an increasingly urbanized world.
Xusheng Du et al, AI-driven urban evolution forecasting: A unified memory-aware multi-conditional generation framework for sustainable development planning, Sustainable Cities and Society (2026). DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2026.107272
Panoramic view of dense residential buildings along Jounieh’s waterfront in Lebanon, highlighting urban architecture. by Jo Kassis via pexels
John Nagle, Queen’s University Belfast and Edouardo Wassim Aboultaif, Université Saint-Esprit de Kaslik (USEK)

Israeli airstrikes on the south Beirut suburb of Dahiye, March 9 2026. EPA/Wael Hamzeh
Over the ten days of the renewed conflict in the Middle East, Beirut’s southern district of Dahiyeh has been targeted by Israel, which is looking to deal a knockout blow to Hezbollah. It’s not the first time the area has been bombarded. Dahiyeh was bombed by Israel during its 2006 war with Hezbollah, again in 2014 and yet again in 2024 and 2025. Now the Israel Defense Forces is bombing the area again.
The attacks mark the return of a strategy first developed by the Israeli armed forces in Dahiyeh before becoming a military doctrine, bearing the name of the suburb. The Dahiyeh doctrine is a military strategy that calls for using overwhelming and disproportionate force against civilian infrastructure in areas controlled by hostile armed groups in order to deter attacks on Israel. It has repeatedly put into practice in Gaza. Now the Dahiyeh doctrine is once again being enacted in the place where it was first conceived.
Dahiyeh is a Hezbollah stronghold. It became the main urban centre for Lebanon’s Shia population in the middle of the last century, as poor Shia families from Baalbek and southern Lebanon migrated to Beirut’s suburbs.
During the civil war between 1975 and 1990, Hezbollah established its urban base in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Dahiyeh – the word means “suburb” – is the heart of Hezbollah’s political, social and service networks. Which is why it has become a target for Israel’s military.
The doctrine was developed in the aftermath of the 2006 Lebanon war between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel’s military leadership realised that Hezbollah had stalled their advance in urban combat.
To respond to this, the director of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Gabi Siboni, a former senior IDF officer, wrote a paper in the INSS journal in October 2008, arguing for the use of overwhelming force against both fighters and the urban environment in which they operated and lived.
This was developed by the IDF into a working strategy. As Gadi Eisenkot, head of the army’s northern division, explained at the time: “What happened in the Dahiya quarter of Beirut in 2006 will happen in every village from which Israel is fired on. We will apply disproportionate force on it (the village) and cause great damage and destruction there. From our standpoint, these are not civilian villages, they are military bases. This is not a recommendation. This is a plan. And it has been approved.”
The primary goal of the doctrine was punishment and deterrence. The idea was to disrupt civilian life and make reconstruction almost impossible to afford. The doctrine’s architects hoped that its outcome would force the civilian population to rebel against the armed groups sheltering among them.
Siboni had made clear in his paper that this strategy was also applicable to Israel’s conflict in Gaza. In 2014, Operation Protective Edge targeted civilian infrastructure, including private houses as well as water, sanitation, electricity and healthcare facilities. Again, after the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the IDF has applied the Dahiyeh doctrine in the Gaza Strip, this time destroying between 80% and 90% of its civilian infrastructure.
Critics argue this violates international humanitarian law (IHL). IHL demands that states and groups make a clear distinction between civilians and combatants. It is necessary for armed groups to take all precautions to avoid acts of extreme destruction in heavy civilian residential locations.
Ravina Shamdasani, spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, has warned that the blanket evacuation orders directed at Dahiyeh’s population risk violating international humanitarian law, saying they risk amounting to “prohibited forced displacement”. While Israeli strategists defend the doctrine as a means to defeat groups like Hezbollah, critics describe it as a template for handing out indiscriminate punishment to combatants and civilians alike.
The attacks on Dahieyh come at yet another fragile moment for Lebanon. The power-sharing government, led by the prime minister, Nawaf Salam, with the president, Joseph Aoun, as head of state, is still trying to implement economic reforms after the catastrophic 2019 financial collapse (estimated by the World Bank to be among the top three most severe economic crises globally since the mid-19th century). The latest round of conflict will severely set back the Lebanese government’s attempts to rebuild the economy.

Repeat performance: Dahiyeh has regularly been a target for Israeli bombardment. Before the past ten days, the most recent previous attack was in 2025. EPA/Wael Hamzeh
The brunt of Israel’s assault on Lebanon is being felt in Dahiyeh. UN officials had estimated that the latest Israeli evacuation orders have forced at least 100,000 people to leave the area for shelters across Lebanon.
So far, the Lebanese government’s response is to try to pull Hezbollah back from yet another drawn-out war with Israel. On March 2, Aoun formally banned Hezbollah from engaging in military activities and ordered the group to surrender its weapons to the Lebanese army. The government has also postponed the legislative election scheduled for May 2026 by two years.
The Lebanese government has put forward a four-point plan and called for an Israeli ceasefire to allow negotiations to proceed. The plan calls for “establishing a full truce” with Israel, the disarmament of Hezbollah and direct negotiations with Israel “under international auspices”.
But the international community seems incapable of applying any pressure to change the situation in Lebanon. As of March 9, by UN estimates, nearly 700,000 people had been forced from their homes, including 200,000 children. Meanwhile, the IDF continues to carry out strikes in Dahiyeh.
The Dahiyeh doctrine is so effective for the IDF because it is designed to move faster than the often glacial workings of international diplomacy. It can accomplish a military objective before the international community can craft an agreed and workable plan. This is not the only time residential districts have been bombed or civilian infrastructure targeted. Far from it. Modern warfare is full of examples of bombing civilian districts, and Hezbollah has also launched attacks against residential areas in Israel.
But in the years since the doctrine was first articulated, it has been observed at work in both Lebanon and in Gaza, where Israel’s approach to operating in civilian areas was was criticised by the UN after Operation Cast Lead in 2008-09 as an official military strategy “designed to punish, humiliate and terrorise a civilian population”. As such, it’s a chilling illustration of the horror of modern warfare as waged in the Middle East today. And once again it appears to have come home to Dahiyeh.![]()
John Nagle, Professor in Sociology, Queen’s University Belfast and Edouardo Wassim Aboultaif, Assistant Professor, School of Law and Political Sciences, Université Saint-Esprit de Kaslik (USEK)
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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