31 January 2026 6:19 pm
How Jeddah Tower Surpassed 80-Floor Mark

How Jeddah Tower Surpassed 80-Floor Mark

Jan 13, 2026

Image above of the Jeddah Tower – Construction Week

.

World’s Tallest: How Jeddah Tower Surpassed 80-Floor Mark

By Libby Hargreaves
Construction DIGITAL, January 12, 2026
.
.
Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah Tower surpasses 80 floors
Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah Tower surpasses 80 floors, advancing towards becoming the world’s first kilometre-high building by 2028

The skyline along Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast is experiencing significant transformation as the Jeddah Tower officially moves past the 80-floor mark.

The important milestone, confirmed on 6 January, 2026, signals that the world’s first “kilometre-high” structure is no longer a distant concept, but a rapidly advancing reality shaped by engineering excellence and logistical coordination.

Following a seven-year pause that began in 2018, the project – formerly known as the Kingdom Tower – resumed full-scale operations in January 2025. Since then, the construction site has become a centre of industrial activity, advancing at what engineers describe as a “blistering” pace.

The Jeddah Tower serves as the centrepiece of the broader Jeddah Economic City, a 57-million-square-foot development designed to reposition the Kingdom as a premier global hub for business and luxury tourism.

Designed by Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill, the firm behind Dubai’s Burj Khalifa, the structure is engineered to reach a final height of at least 1,008 metres.

Jeddah Tower will be the world’s tallest

Overcoming unprecedented physical constraints

Achieving such verticality requires overcoming unprecedented physical constraints.

The Saudi Binladin Group (SBG) was rehired in late 2024 under a SR 7.2bn (£1.5bn/US$2bn) contract. Following their return in January 2025, SBG representatives note that resuming a “paused” megastructure presented immense technical challenges.

At the recommencement ceremony, the group emphasise their commitment to Vision 2030 goals, stating the project is now “utilising advanced ‘pumpcrete’ technology capable of delivering high-performance concrete to heights never before reached in human history.”

According to Thornton Tomasetti, the project’s structural engineers, the central core and flanking wings indicate more than 50% of the total concrete work is now complete. The current delivery schedule is notably aggressive, with crews adding a new floor approximately every three to four days.

In a technical update released on 6 January, 2026, Thornton Tomasetti confirmed the tower is on track to reach its 100th floor by February.

The companty highlights the structural core is performing exactly as modelled in wind-tunnel tests, state: “The Jeddah Tower project advanced strongly in 2025… our team is pairing innovation with advanced computational modeling to ensure the structure withstands the unique wind forces at 1,000 metres.”

The tower’s “three-petal” footprint is not merely aesthetic; it is a critical aerodynamic feature designed to shed wind vortices and reduce structural sway at extreme altitudes.

The observatory terrace

Managing complexity at unprecedented scale

Managing the sheer scale of the site falls to Turner Construction, which took over project management in March 2025. It describes the site as “one of the most complex construction environments on Earth,” requiring precise coordination between the tower’s construction and the surrounding infrastructure of Jeddah Economic City.

Perhaps the most technically demanding aspect is the vertical transport system. Finnish elevator specialists KONE are installing 59 lifts, including five double-decker units.

KONE describes the Jeddah Tower as the ultimate “proving ground” for their UltraRope technology, states that the elevators will travel at speeds exceeding 10 metres per second, using “carbon-fibre cores to eliminate the weight issues associated with traditional steel cables in supertall buildings.”

Delivery timeline and strategic importance

The completion of the Jeddah Tower, currently slated for August 2028, is a cornerstone of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, serving as a symbol of the nation’s economic diversification and technical ambition.

Talal Ibrahim Al Maiman, CEO of the Jeddah Economic Company (JEC)

Talal Ibrahim Al Maiman, CEO of the Jeddah Economic Company (JEC), remarked during the 80th-floor celebrations: “Jeddah Tower will serve as a beacon of innovation and a catalyst for growth… Today’s progress represents the realization of a vision that was years in the making.”

At its final height, the Jeddah Tower will stand roughly 173 metres taller than the Burj Khalifa, claiming the crown of the world’s tallest building. It will house a luxury hotel, high-end residences and the world’s highest observation deck, featuring a cantilevered “sky terrace” overlooking the Red Sea.

While the tower is currently the Kingdom’s most prominent project, it is part of a wider vertical race; plans are already in motion for the Rise Tower in Riyadh – a £4bn (US$5.3bn) proposal aimed at reaching a staggering two kilometres in height.

For now, however, attention remains on Jeddah, as the construction sector watches the first kilometre-high landmark take shape along the Red Sea coast.

*


 

*

Shaping the Future of Construction in the Middle East

Shaping the Future of Construction in the Middle East

Jan 12, 2026

 

Stunning view of Dubai’s iconic skyscrapers under a clear blue sky.  By Aleksandar Pasaric via Pexels

.

Shaping the Future of Construction in the Middle East

Shaping the Future of Construction in the Middle East

GCP Construction Chemicals becomes the new Chryso. Born from the strategic alliance between Chryso and GCP, our new brand embodies the best of both companies. It symbolizes our journey and our future in the field of construction specialty chemicals. Courtesy of Chrysso Saint-Gobain.

.

Meet the IJNet Newsroom Embed Fellow | International Center for Journalists

by  in ArchiExpo/Emag

Dubai is pushing forward with cutting-edge construction technologies—from fibre-reinforced concrete systems to large-format 3D printing—while regulators and industry leaders work to balance innovation with safety and long-term performance.

In a hurry? Here are the key points:

  • Dubai is rapidly adopting next-generation technologies such as Apis Cor’s 3D-printing systems, Bekaert’s Dramix steel fibres, and GCP’s STRUX macro-fibres to modernize construction.
  • These solutions promise cleaner sites, faster project delivery, reduced rebar use, and lower embodied carbon across major developments.
  • Regulators emphasize that innovation must advance alongside rigorous safety, testing, and performance verification to ensure resilient, code-compliant structures.

Dubai has rapidly positioned itself as one of the world’s most ambitious testbeds for next-generation construction technologies, advancing a built-environment agenda that prioritizes speed, safety, and sustainability at scale. Over the past two years—particularly through 2024 and 2025—the emirate has accelerated the adoption of innovations such as large-format 3D concrete printing by robotics companies like Apis Cor, advanced fibre-reinforced systems from suppliers including Bekaert with its Dramix 4D and GCP Applied Technologies’ STRUX macro-fibres, as well as self-healing admixtures and optimized digital mix-design platforms. These technologies are no longer theoretical experiments; they are being promoted for deployment across industrial flooring, infrastructure tunnels, precast modules, and residential construction. Early use cases promise cleaner construction sites, faster delivery, reduced reliance on conventional reinforcement, and lower embodied carbon in structural elements.

Yet progress requires precision. As Ihab Bassiouni of Dubai Municipality noted during a panel at The Big 5:

“It’s very delicate… how to balance between both. It’s not easy,” referring to the challenge of encouraging innovation while ensuring public safety, regulatory compliance, and long-term performance.

The region’s authorities now face the task of validating emerging systems—whether steel-fiber-reinforced concrete used to replace part of the rebar in foundations, synthetic macrofibres introduced to streamline megaproject flooring, or 3D-printed structural walls produced in hours rather than days. The Middle East’s construction boom makes this balancing act especially urgent: as the sector embraces transformative technologies, regulators must ensure that safety and durability evolve just as quickly.

The Role of Standards in Enabling Safe Innovation

The session was moderated by Mohamed Amer, Managing Director – MENA, International Code Council (ICC), who opened the discussion by emphasizing the role of standards and performance-based design in enabling safe innovation. Amer highlighted the ICC’s responsibility in codes, testing, and certification, noting ongoing collaborations with ACI on low-carbon cement criteria and emerging materials.

Bassiouni emphasized that Dubai’s building code already supports innovation through performance-based provisions, allowing new technologies to be approved even when not explicitly covered in prescriptive rules.

“We give the opportunity to material producers… to create new products and get them used in concrete as an alternative to the prescribed fixed designs,” he added.

Exemplary projects: Dubai’s innovation drive is already visible on the ground — from the Dubai Municipality office printed on-site by Apis Cor in 2019, which showcased rapid, large-format 3D printing for municipal buildings; to Expo City Dubai’s 2024 deployment of Bekaert’s Dramix® 4D fibres in large floor-on-ground areas to reduce rebar, improve crack control and lower embodied carbon; and while GCP Applied Technologies’ STRUX® macro-fibres are actively marketed and supplied into the UAE market and used internationally in high-performance slabs, a publicly documented, named UAE project citing STRUX in press materials is not available at this time and we recommend vendor confirmation for a UAE-specific case.

Understanding the BSA: Building System Approval Process

Dubai Municipality, one of the main governing bodies over the city of Dubai, operates the Building System Approval (BSA) process, which enables comprehensive testing and evaluation of innovative systems through documented research, third-party assessments, and pilot projects. He noted that the authority is introducing an “in-principle approval” stage—a pre-evaluation mechanism allowing system owners to obtain early technical feedback before investing in full-scale pilots or manufacturing facilities.

However, Bassiouni underscored that regulation alone is not enough. The municipality is actively looking to incorporate a new innovative platform designed to bring regulators, academia, consultants, manufacturers, and the public together. 

“Everyone will be part of the whole process,” he said, explaining that this collaborative environment, combined with industry education and sandbox testing spaces, will speed up adoption and reduce uncertainty.

Many engineers, he observed:

“are not aware of new technologies because they are busy with their day-to-day jobs,” making education a crucial priority.

(Left) Flooring: Whether it’s daily traffic, forklifts, robots or even the heaviest of containers, steel fiber floors...; (Right) Precast: Sewer pipes, electric cabins, utility vaults…steel fiber reinforcement is not bound by form. Courtesy of Bekaert.
(Left) Flooring: Whether it’s daily traffic, forklifts, robots or even the heaviest of containers, steel fiber floors…; (Right) Precast: Sewer pipes, electric cabins, utility vaults…steel fiber reinforcement is not bound by form. Courtesy of Bekaert.

ACI’s Contribution to Concrete Knowledge and Standards

Also on the panel was Ahmad Mhanna, Director, Middle East / North Africa Region at ACI, who described how the organization’s century-long history is rooted in industry expertise and continuous evolution.

“We heavily depend on our members… to develop these standards,” Mhanna said, noting that ACI now maintains more than “35,000 pages of concrete knowledge” spanning material science, structural design, construction, repair, resilience, and sustainability.

He highlighted ACI 318—the world’s leading structural concrete design code—as an example of flexibility and innovation-readiness. When a material or system is not covered explicitly, Mhanna explained:

“It allows the use of that material or system in collaboration with the building official and the system owner.”

This pathway, often used alongside ICC acceptance criteria, allows innovations to enter the market without compromising safety.

Shifting Toward Resilience and Whole-Life Performance

Mhanna also addressed ACI’s strategic shift toward resilience and whole-life performance. A resilient structure, he noted, is one that can recover its functionality after a disruptive event—an increasingly important consideration in modern codes. He stressed that long-term operational savings and durability benefits often outweigh higher upfront material costs.

But the biggest barrier, Mhanna argued, is not technology but perception.

“Many engineers don’t have enough background… they deal with it as a new material,” he said, pointing out that solutions such as steel fiber-reinforced concrete have existed for more than 50 years and are globally validated across tunnels, slabs, precast elements, and industrial projects.

Adding the manufacturer’s perspective, Ahmad Mandalawi, Regional Structural and Specification Engineer, Bekaert, reinforced the need for industry-wide education and early involvement of system owners in design. He explained that engineers often hesitate to approve fiber-reinforced systems simply because they fall outside their traditional training or because codes do not yet feature abundant examples. Owners, he added, tend to compare materials “like-for-like” on price rather than examining lifecycle value. He urged stakeholders to focus on “the total cost of ownership,” including reduced construction timelines, labor savings, corrosion mitigation, and long-term durability.

Fiber-Reinforced Concrete in Dubai’s Landmark Projects

Mandalawi said that Dubai Metro Blue Line extension, where steel fiber reinforcement was used in segmental tunnel linings, has seen faster installation and substantial reductions in embodied carbon. He also cited the Expo City townhouses, where switching from traditional rebar to fully fiber-reinforced slabs resulted in up to 30% lower CO₂ emissions, 50% fewer steel bars, and 15–20% total cost savings, all without compromising structural performance.

All panelists have agreed that innovation does not have to come at the expense of safety. With performance-based codes, rigorous testing frameworks, and stronger collaboration between regulators, standards bodies, consultants, and manufacturers, the Middle East is well-positioned to lead a new era of sustainable, efficient, and resilient construction.

*


 

*

Why smart cities must become integrated urban ecosystems

Why smart cities must become integrated urban ecosystems

Jan 10, 2026

Buildings, illuminated, water, nature, waterfront, skyscrapers, skyline, city lights, cityscape, city view, urban, urban landscape, metropolitan, Dubai city, lights, night, reflection, night photography by Pexels via pixabay

.

Why smart cities must become integrated urban ecosystems

Built Environment and Infrastructure

Cities are now at the centre of humanity’s social, economic and environmental future.

By :

This article is part of: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting
  • Nearly half of the world’s population lives in urban areas, with nearly 4 billion people calling cities home.
  • As urban populations continue to grow, cities face challenges such as ageing infrastructure and rising demand for energy.
  • Innovation and collaboration are key to building integrated smart cities for a more sustainable and connected world.

The future of cities depends on the reinvention of how we envision, build and operate communities. We are embracing that responsibility with optimism and a firm belief that integrated smart cities can create a more sustainable and connected world.

Cities across the world are going through a period of profound transformation. According to the United Nations, approximately 45% of the global population lives in urban areas in 2025, with nearly 4 billion people calling cities home.

This represents an extraordinary shift from just decades ago. Cities are now at the centre of humanity’s social, economic and environmental future. As urban populations continue to grow, cities face mounting challenges, including ageing infrastructure, rapidly rising demand for energy, and ever-changing human expectations for digital connectivity and an increased quality of life.

As a result, smart cities have naturally become an important focal point for many sectors, but discussions still remain dominated by technology companies. While digital platforms, internet of things (IoT) devices and AI are all essential components of urban innovation, they alone cannot constitute the complex machine that is the modern city.

Smart cities rely on interplay of multiple systems

Urban environments inevitably rely on the interplay of infrastructure, energy, buildings, mobility and water management – systems that must be conceived, built and operated with precision and long-term stewardship. This is why we, at GS E&C, believe that the future of smart cities requires not only technological innovation, but also the deep engineering, construction and operational expertise that firms like ours have been refining for decades.

The construction industry is at an inflection point, as well. The traditional EPC model – design, build and hand over – no longer aligns with how modern cities function or what today’s society demands. Buildings and infrastructure now generate continuous data.

For example, housing systems interact dynamically with energy and environmental conditions, and people increasingly expect personalized services embedded throughout their daily lives. The boundary between digital and physical systems has blurred, transforming cities into networks that change and evolve in real time.

This convergence reveals a fundamental strategic direction for us. Construction firms must evolve into long-term service providers. The future of urban development lies not in isolated projects, but in integrated ecosystems that require continuous operation and innovation through reinvention.

Urgent need to reshape how urban systems impact environment

The need for this shift is underscored by an urgent global reality. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the construction sector consumes 34% of global energy and accounts for 37% of global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions.

Operational emissions from buildings alone reached nearly 9.8 billion tons of CO₂ in 2023. This means that everything in this industry, from the materials we use to the way we operate buildings and infrastructure, is imperative to addressing climate change.

Cities occupy just a small fraction of Earth’s land mass, yet their energy use and emissions will determine the trajectory of the whole planet. Firms like ours have a responsibility – and simultaneously, an extraordinary opportunity – to reshape how urban systems impact the environment.

This evolution is the foundation of our strategic transformation. We aim to shift from a project-based general contractor to a total service provider capable of integrating planning, construction, technology and long-term operation. Our goal is to create urban environments that are not only more efficient and sustainable, but also more connected and resilient.

Integrated vision redefines how smart cities work

To guide this transition, GS E&C developed Life Weaver, the company’s integrated vision for smart cities. Life Weaver is more than just a technological blueprint; it is a new philosophy for how cities should function.

It rests on five principles: harmonized flow of energy, mobility and data; innovation emerging from urban challenges; invisible technology that enhances human desires and creativity; ecological co-evolution with natural systems; and integrated experiences that dissolve the boundaries between services and spaces.

These principles redefine what a city can be – an adaptive ecosystem that is both sustainable and intuitive. Life Weaver envisions urban environments where energy circulates cleanly and efficiently, mobility networks reduce friction and services anticipate the needs of the residents. Technology becomes a seamless backdrop, empowering people without overwhelming them.

To make this vision a reality, we are working on building the capabilities required for operating smart cities. Our Zero Energy City frameworks integrate renewable power generation, energy storage systems and energy prosumers – who produce and consume their own energy – to achieve net zero.

Meanwhile, our smart home and IoT platforms create secure and connected living environments that are capable of automation and personalization. We will work to advance digital twins, data platforms and cybersecurity infrastructures to ensure that cities can be well managed as coherent, intelligent systems.

Our investment arm plays a critical role in this picture, as well. We collaborate with startups in AI, robotics, renewable energy and advanced materials to accelerate innovation. Partnerships with leading academic institutions, including Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), enable us to study, test and deploy new solutions in real environments.

Why smart cities must improve human experience

Yet, at the heart of our vision remains people. The ultimate goal of smart cities must be to improve human experience. Smart cities should reduce energy costs, enhance safety, create cleaner environments and shorten commutes. They should enable healthy lifestyles, support vulnerable populations and foster a greater sense of community. They need to be inclusive places where technology adapts to the lives of people – not the other way around.

As cities become the primary setting of global life – accounting for nearly half of the world population and over 80% of global GDP according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) – their success will define our collective future. This is why transformation towards integrated smart cities matters. It is not simply technological innovation, but rather, an imperative for society.

No single sector can accomplish this alone. Smart cities require collaboration across construction, technology, energy, mobility, academia, the public sector and governments. GS E&C is committed to leading through such partnerships and redefining what it means to build – not just for today, but for future generations as well.

The future of cities depends on the reinvention of how we envision, build and operate communities. We are embracing that responsibility with optimism and a firm belief that integrated smart cities can create a more sustainable and connected world.

*


 

*

How AI could split the world again if we don’t intervene

How AI could split the world again if we don’t intervene

Jan 9, 2026

A robotic hand reaching into a digital network on a blue background, symbolizing AI technology. by Tara Winstead via Pexels

.

The next great divergence: How AI could split the world again if we don’t intervene

In BROOKINGS, January 8, 2026

  • AI, like past general-purpose technologies, risks driving a new global divergence unless deliberate action ensures its benefits are broadly shared rather than geographically concentrated.

Shutterstock/Andrii Yalanskyi

 

In the 19th century, the Industrial Revolution—driven by new general-purpose technologies like the steam engine and mechanized production—spurred a dramatic split in global fortunes known as the “Great Divergence.” By 1800, most countries were poor: Life expectancy was below 40, and literacy rates rarely exceeded 12%, with “almost no income gap” between regions. By 1900, however, industrialized powers enjoyed vastly higher incomes and lifespans than those left behind.

Artificial intelligence (AI) may play a similar role today. AI is emerging as a new general-purpose technology with enormous transformative potential. It can expand opportunities and unlock breakthroughs in education, healthcare, and productivity. Yet, as we analyze in UNDP Asia-Pacific’s new report “The Next Great Divergence,” AI also carries a serious risk of widening inequality between countries.

This may sound counterintuitive. Many believe AI will level the playing field and unlock new leapfrogging opportunities in education, health care, and productivity. And it can. But our analysis shows that without deliberate intervention, the centrifugal forces may dominate, widening gaps between nations and setting the stage for a “Next Great Divergence.”

Socrates and Edison were both wrong

Every major technological revolution arrives with a mix of hysteria and hype. In ancient Athens, Socrates worried that writing would weaken memory, an irony preserved for us only because Plato wrote his claims down. Two millennia later, Thomas Edison predicted that motion pictures would replace textbooks, believing film would teach “every branch of human knowledge.”

Both misjudged the role of technology. They focused on whether new tools would replace existing ones, rather than how capabilities would spread. Today, we replay that same binary debate. Will AI replace work, or solve every human problem? In arguing about what AI is, we ignore where it is landing and who stands to benefit.

The real issue is not the nature of the technology, but the geography of its impact. We are focused on what AI can do and not enough on where it is doing it.

AI lands in a deeply unequal world

AI is not entering a level playing field. It is arriving in a world marked by extraordinary inequality. Nowhere is this more evident than in Asia and the Pacific, the most economically diverse region globally. Incomes differ by nearly two hundred times between the richest country, Singapore, and one of the poorest, Afghanistan.

These divides shape two structural asymmetries: a capability gap and a vulnerability gap, which together amplify unequal impacts of AI across countries.

Figure 1. The world is unequally prepared for AI, which will manifest itself in the uneven accrual of dividends and disruptions

Source: UNDP; IMF AI Preparedness Index (2023).

The capability gap

Innovation is concentrating quickly at the top. The IMF’s AI Preparedness Index shows that high-income countries are already far better positioned to benefit from AI. Many low-income countries still struggle with basic electricity, broadband, and foundational digital infrastructure.

The internal contrasts within Asia-Pacific are equally striking. Six economies alone account for more than 3,000 newly funded AI firms. China accounts for nearly 70% of global AI patents. Several economies in the region are now major AI developers.

Yet basic digital access remains a major barrier across much of the region. Roughly one quarter of Asia-Pacific’s population remains offline. Even where networks exist, a vast skills deficit persists. Only about one in four urban residents and fewer than one in five rural residents can perform a basic spreadsheet calculation. The capacity gap is also gendered: In South Asia, women are up to 40% less likely than men to own a smartphone.

These gaps mean that while some countries are rapidly building domestic AI ecosystems, many are not yet able to participate in the AI economy at all.

The vulnerability gap

While capability concentrates at the top, risks radiate downward.

Labor markets illustrate this clearly. Women’s jobs are nearly twice as likely as men’s jobs to face high exposure to AI-driven automation. About 4.7% of female employment in a recent sample fell into high-exposure categories, compared with 2.4% for men.

Generational divides are also emerging. Employment for workers aged 22-25 in high-exposure occupations has fallen by about 5% in recent years, suggesting that AI is reducing entry-level opportunities even as older workers experience productivity gains.

Beyond jobs, AI’s energy needs introduce new environmental vulnerabilities. Electricity consumption by data centers may nearly triple by 2030. Countries with fragile, fossil-fuel-based power systems risk hosting energy-hungry “data farms” for global AI, bearing environmental costs while capturing little of the economic value.

Taken together, the capability and vulnerability gaps are producing a world in which AI benefits concentrate in the better-positioned countries, while disruptions fall most heavily on populations least prepared to manage them.

Three strategic choices

A widening divide is not inevitable. Policymakers have a window to steer AI toward convergence through three strategic choices.

1. Don’t repeat the “One Laptop per Child” mistake

The One Laptop per Child initiative showed that technology will fail if deployed into environments without the “soft infrastructure” needed to use it. Laptops were delivered, but without trained teachers, high-quality localized content, and reliable connectivity, the devices were often unused or misused.

The same risk exists with AI. Pilots can appear promising, but if people lack the skills to use, trust, or meaningfully benefit from AI tools, adoption will stall.

With fewer than 20% of rural residents in the Asia-Pacific capable of basic digital tasks, human capital must be the priority. This means investing in computer science and data science education, training civil servants in data governance, and embedding AI literacy across society. Empowering people must come alongside deploying systems.

2. Build regional AI public goods

Few countries can build a full AI ecosystem on their own. To reduce dependency on a handful of technology giants, countries should treat core AI enablers—compute infrastructure, data, and foundational models—as regional public goods.

Regional compute and data commons would allow countries to pool resources and gain access to shared capabilities. For example, an ASEAN-wide cloud for AI research or a South Asia initiative to create local-language large language models could widen access and strengthen collective bargaining power.

A regional approach also enables a “green AI industrial policy”. As data center demand grows, governments can require energy-efficient architectures and renewable-powered compute expansion, ensuring sustainable growth rather than replicating past patterns of extractive digital infrastructure.

3. Tailor AI roadmaps to local capacity

A single AI strategy cannot fit all countries. Approaches must reflect starting points (Table 1):

  • Lower-capacity contexts will need to focus on basic connectivity. Offline-capable AI for healthcare triage or agricultural support through feature phones can deliver real value where broadband is limited.
  • Transitional-capacity economies can scale proven pilots, build civic data infrastructures, and establish privacy and governance frameworks that avoid dependency and scattered experiments.
  • Higher-capacity countries have the opportunity to lead on standards, safety, and sustainability. They can strengthen regulatory oversight, push for energy-efficient AI research, and contribute regionally by sharing models and expertise.

Tiered strategies help ensure that countries build from foundations they can sustain, rather than adopting technologies mismatched to their institutional realities.

Table 1. Roadmaps tailored to different starting points

Source: The Next Great Divergence, UNDP, 2025.

Leave no mind behind

AI is becoming the general-purpose infrastructure of the 21st century, as fundamental as electricity or roads. It is critical that we don’t allow access to this infrastructure to be deeply unequal. By investing in human capital and institutions, treating connectivity and computing power as public goods, and designing inclusive, tiered roadmaps, we can ensure that AI’s immense productivity potential is shared.

If the 21st Century marks the start of the next Great Divergence, it will not be because of AI alone. It will be because we did not act.

Authors

MICHAEL MUTHUKRISHNA
Michael MuthukrishnaProfessor of Economic Psychology – New York University and London School of Economics michaelmuthukrishna
Philip Schellekens
Philip Schellekens, Chief Economist – Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific, UNDP
Key Themes Shaping the MENA Region in 2026

Key Themes Shaping the MENA Region in 2026

Jan 8, 2026

Image for illustration: A collection of antique Dallah coffee pots displayed in a Doha market, showcasing Middle Eastern culture. By Fernando B M via pexels

.

Age of Agility: Key Themes Shaping the MENA Region in 2026

By Jack Kennedy, Jessica Leyland, Kevjn Lim, Ph.D., Zaineb Al Assam, Jamil Naayem, and Ralf Wiegert

In S&P Global – 7 January 2026

,

In 2026, we expect the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region to experience contrasting trends of growth and conflict instability.

S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasts that MENA will be the only major global region with anticipated economic growth in 2026 surpassing that of 2025, following a notable increase of 2.5 percentage points in real GDP growth between 2024 and 2025.

Unresolved conflicts from 2025 are likely to pose significant risks to this forecast, keeping the MENA region, especially the Gulf, at the center of broader global geopolitical trends.

Key takeaways

  • Unresolved conflict escalation pathways from the 12-day June war between Israel/the US and Iran continue to represent the main driver of MENA regional instability and severe interstate war risks in 2026.
  • Military supply chain vulnerabilities and constraints are likely to determine the willingness of all belligerent parties to commit to renewed conflict, spurring more armed exchanges with limited scope and duration.
  • Gulf states, notably the UAE and Saudi Arabia, will continue to focus on integrating US-designed computing, networking, and cloud technologies into their economies. This ongoing strategic shift is expected to stimulate economic growth and enhance security and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) geopolitical alliances by 2026.
  • The GCC states will drive economic growth in the MENA region, largely driven by increased hydrocarbon output, continued economic diversification efforts, and declining borrowing costs in the GCC.
  • Lower oil prices will hinder MENA hydrocarbon exporters’ external sector performances and likely constrain their ability to generate foreign currency earnings in 2026.

Shifting asymmetric power in MENA

Unresolved conflict escalation pathways from the 12-day June war between Israel/the US and Iran continue to represent the main driver of regional instability and severe interstate war risks in 2026. US-Iran negotiations over a new nuclear agreement have not yet officially resumed. Further airstrikes in 2026 are likely if Israel (and/or the US) assesses that Iran is making significant progress in reconstituting its enrichment, ballistic missile and advanced air defense capabilities. This is especially likely if no US-Iran nuclear agreement is reached, again triggering Iranian counterstrikes on Israeli territory and maintaining the severe risk of escalation to interstate war.

A resumption of war, with Iran’s conventional offensive capabilities weakened, would increase the likelihood of Iran seeking to at least partially obstruct vessel passage in the Strait of Hormuz, significantly disrupting international trade routes and impacting global energy prices to a higher degree than during the June war.

Supply-chain vulnerabilities will probably determine the willingness of the parties involved to commit to renewed conflict, encouraging more armed exchanges of limited scope and duration. The capacity to sustain and replenish air defense interceptors almost certainly influenced Israeli and the US strategy during the June war.

Militant access to relatively affordable offensive capabilities such as uncrewed systems and cruise and ballistic missiles, and a probable increased reliance on other state-fostered capabilities including AI, will continue posing security challenges to established military powers, and maintain the risk of periodic armed exchanges.

Gulf states, notably the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are positioning themselves for a recalibration of shifting power dynamics, focusing on integrating US-designed computing, networking, and cloud technologies into their economies.

Both governments have recognized AI and data center development as core components of their economic diversification plans. The UAE currently leads the Middle East in data center market size, while Saudi Arabia — which ranks second — is also making significant investments to expand its capabilities. The growth of Saudi Arabia’s data centers is anticipated to support broader Vision 2030 infrastructure objectives, particularly in constructing and expanding desalination plants necessary for cooling.

Substantial investments in AI and data centers also come with risks from technological and security perspectives. The ongoing technological rivalry and strategic competition between the US and mainland China is likely to influence GCC access to critical technologies.

GCC countries' contribution to MENA region GDP growth

Shaky economic foundations, new trade realities in MENA

Risks to the MENA region’s 2026 economic outlook are heavily weighted to the downside due to severe regional war risks and soft hydrocarbon prices. We forecast the MENA region, on aggregate, to record sustained economic growth in 2026, but with stark contrasts within the region. The GCC states will drive economic growth in MENA. Real GDP growth will be largely driven by increased hydrocarbon outputs, continued economic diversification efforts, and declining borrowing costs in the GCC.

The growth trend in the MENA region is, in large part, due to the unwinding of oil output restrictions by OPEC+ until September 2025. The region’s oil producers are critically dependent on global oil demand and oil prices. S&P Global Energy projects an average oil price of US$58 per barrel (Brent) in 2026, down by 16% from projected 2025 averages. This will squeeze oil revenues, which could fall further if global growth performs less strongly, weakening demand for oil.

Non-hydrocarbon growth momentum is set to continue across the GCC economies, in line with their economic development strategies and partly helped by hydrocarbon output increases in conformity with OPEC+ decisions. GCC development plans focusing on reducing reliance on hydrocarbons and encouraging private sector involvement into their economies, coupled with robust domestic demand, are likely to drive the recovery of the non-hydrocarbon economy in 2026.

Such a sustained strong momentum will likely be facilitated by further monetary easing by GCC central banks in line with US Federal Reserve moves. Given the long-standing currency pegs to the dollar, which are unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, we currently forecast two policy rate cuts in GCC states in 2026, leading to less costly borrowing and supporting investment activity in the GCC.

Lower energy prices will continue to place adverse pressure on the external balances of hydrocarbon exporters and their ability to accumulate foreign reserves. Outside the GCC, weaker energy prices will also widen the current account deficits of Algeria, Iraq and Libya.

The pause in Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea is unlikely to hold through 2026 if, as is likely, the Gaza ceasefire collapses; we therefore forecast that any recovery in Suez Canal revenues will at best be gradual.

The Age of Agility Is Here

Key economic, geopolitical and trade drivers for the year ahead
Read the Full Report

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

*


 

*