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How AI could split the world again if we don’t intervene

Jan 9, 2026

A robotic hand reaching into a digital network on a blue background, symbolizing AI technology. by Tara Winstead via Pexels

The next great divergence: How AI could split the world again if we don’t intervene

Michael Muthukrishna and Philip Schellekens

In BROOKINGS, January 8, 2026

AI, like past general-purpose technologies, risks driving a new global divergence unless deliberate action ensures its benefits are broadly shared rather than geographically concentrated.

In the 19th century, the Industrial Revolution—driven by new general-purpose technologies like the steam engine and mechanized production—spurred a dramatic split in global fortunes known as the “Great Divergence.” By 1800, most countries were poor: Life expectancy was below 40, and literacy rates rarely exceeded 12%, with “almost no income gap” between regions. By 1900, however, industrialized powers enjoyed vastly higher incomes and lifespans than those left behind.

Artificial intelligence (AI) may play a similar role today. AI is emerging as a new general-purpose technology with enormous transformative potential. It can expand opportunities and unlock breakthroughs in education, healthcare, and productivity. Yet, as we analyze in UNDP Asia-Pacific’s new report “The Next Great Divergence,” AI also carries a serious risk of widening inequality between countries.

This may sound counterintuitive. Many believe AI will level the playing field and unlock new leapfrogging opportunities in education, health care, and productivity. And it can. But our analysis shows that without deliberate intervention, the centrifugal forces may dominate, widening gaps between nations and setting the stage for a “Next Great Divergence.”

Socrates and Edison were both wrong

Every major technological revolution arrives with a mix of hysteria and hype. In ancient Athens, Socrates worried that writing would weaken memory, an irony preserved for us only because Plato wrote his claims down. Two millennia later, Thomas Edison predicted that motion pictures would replace textbooks, believing film would teach “every branch of human knowledge.”

Both misjudged the role of technology. They focused on whether new tools would replace existing ones, rather than how capabilities would spread. Today, we replay that same binary debate. Will AI replace work, or solve every human problem? In arguing about what AI is, we ignore where it is landing and who stands to benefit.

The real issue is not the nature of the technology, but the geography of its impact. We are focused on what AI can do and not enough on where it is doing it.

AI lands in a deeply unequal world

AI is not entering a level playing field. It is arriving in a world marked by extraordinary inequality. Nowhere is this more evident than in Asia and the Pacific, the most economically diverse region globally. Incomes differ by nearly two hundred times between the richest country, Singapore, and one of the poorest, Afghanistan.

These divides shape two structural asymmetries: a capability gap and a vulnerability gap, which together amplify unequal impacts of AI across countries.

Figure 1. The world is unequally prepared for AI, which will manifest itself in the uneven accrual of dividends and disruptions

Source: UNDP; IMF AI Preparedness Index (2023).

The capability gap

Innovation is concentrating quickly at the top. The IMF’s AI Preparedness Index shows that high-income countries are already far better positioned to benefit from AI. Many low-income countries still struggle with basic electricity, broadband, and foundational digital infrastructure.

The internal contrasts within Asia-Pacific are equally striking. Six economies alone account for more than 3,000 newly funded AI firms. China accounts for nearly 70% of global AI patents. Several economies in the region are now major AI developers.

Yet basic digital access remains a major barrier across much of the region. Roughly one quarter of Asia-Pacific’s population remains offline. Even where networks exist, a vast skills deficit persists. Only about one in four urban residents and fewer than one in five rural residents can perform a basic spreadsheet calculation. The capacity gap is also gendered: In South Asia, women are up to 40% less likely than men to own a smartphone.

These gaps mean that while some countries are rapidly building domestic AI ecosystems, many are not yet able to participate in the AI economy at all.

The vulnerability gap

While capability concentrates at the top, risks radiate downward.

Labor markets illustrate this clearly. Women’s jobs are nearly twice as likely as men’s jobs to face high exposure to AI-driven automation. About 4.7% of female employment in a recent sample fell into high-exposure categories, compared with 2.4% for men.

Generational divides are also emerging. Employment for workers aged 22-25 in high-exposure occupations has fallen by about 5% in recent years, suggesting that AI is reducing entry-level opportunities even as older workers experience productivity gains.

Beyond jobs, AI’s energy needs introduce new environmental vulnerabilities. Electricity consumption by data centers may nearly triple by 2030. Countries with fragile, fossil-fuel-based power systems risk hosting energy-hungry “data farms” for global AI, bearing environmental costs while capturing little of the economic value.

Taken together, the capability and vulnerability gaps are producing a world in which AI benefits concentrate in the better-positioned countries, while disruptions fall most heavily on populations least prepared to manage them.

Three strategic choices

A widening divide is not inevitable. Policymakers have a window to steer AI toward convergence through three strategic choices.

1. Don’t repeat the “One Laptop per Child” mistake

The One Laptop per Child initiative showed that technology will fail if deployed into environments without the “soft infrastructure” needed to use it. Laptops were delivered, but without trained teachers, high-quality localized content, and reliable connectivity, the devices were often unused or misused.

The same risk exists with AI. Pilots can appear promising, but if people lack the skills to use, trust, or meaningfully benefit from AI tools, adoption will stall.

With fewer than 20% of rural residents in the Asia-Pacific capable of basic digital tasks, human capital must be the priority. This means investing in computer science and data science education, training civil servants in data governance, and embedding AI literacy across society. Empowering people must come alongside deploying systems.

2. Build regional AI public goods

Few countries can build a full AI ecosystem on their own. To reduce dependency on a handful of technology giants, countries should treat core AI enablers—compute infrastructure, data, and foundational models—as regional public goods.

Regional compute and data commons would allow countries to pool resources and gain access to shared capabilities. For example, an ASEAN-wide cloud for AI research or a South Asia initiative to create local-language large language models could widen access and strengthen collective bargaining power.

A regional approach also enables a “green AI industrial policy”. As data center demand grows, governments can require energy-efficient architectures and renewable-powered compute expansion, ensuring sustainable growth rather than replicating past patterns of extractive digital infrastructure.

3. Tailor AI roadmaps to local capacity

A single AI strategy cannot fit all countries. Approaches must reflect starting points (Table 1):

Lower-capacity contexts will need to focus on basic connectivity. Offline-capable AI for healthcare triage or agricultural support through feature phones can deliver real value where broadband is limited.
Transitional-capacity economies can scale proven pilots, build civic data infrastructures, and establish privacy and governance frameworks that avoid dependency and scattered experiments.
Higher-capacity countries have the opportunity to lead on standards, safety, and sustainability. They can strengthen regulatory oversight, push for energy-efficient AI research, and contribute regionally by sharing models and expertise.

Tiered strategies help ensure that countries build from foundations they can sustain, rather than adopting technologies mismatched to their institutional realities.

Table 1. Roadmaps tailored to different starting points

Source: The Next Great Divergence, UNDP, 2025.

Leave no mind behind

AI is becoming the general-purpose infrastructure of the 21st century, as fundamental as electricity or roads. It is critical that we don’t allow access to this infrastructure to be deeply unequal. By investing in human capital and institutions, treating connectivity and computing power as public goods, and designing inclusive, tiered roadmaps, we can ensure that AI’s immense productivity potential is shared.

If the 21st Century marks the start of the next Great Divergence, it will not be because of AI alone. It will be because we did not act.

Authors

Key Themes Shaping the MENA Region in 2026

Jan 8, 2026

Image for illustration: A collection of antique Dallah coffee pots displayed in a Doha market, showcasing Middle Eastern culture. By Fernando B M via pexels

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Age of Agility: Key Themes Shaping the MENA Region in 2026

In 2026, we expect the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region to experience contrasting trends of growth and conflict instability.

S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasts that MENA will be the only major global region with anticipated economic growth in 2026 surpassing that of 2025, following a notable increase of 2.5 percentage points in real GDP growth between 2024 and 2025.

Unresolved conflicts from 2025 are likely to pose significant risks to this forecast, keeping the MENA region, especially the Gulf, at the center of broader global geopolitical trends.

Key takeaways

Unresolved conflict escalation pathways from the 12-day June war between Israel/the US and Iran continue to represent the main driver of MENA regional instability and severe interstate war risks in 2026.
Military supply chain vulnerabilities and constraints are likely to determine the willingness of all belligerent parties to commit to renewed conflict, spurring more armed exchanges with limited scope and duration.
Gulf states, notably the UAE and Saudi Arabia, will continue to focus on integrating US-designed computing, networking, and cloud technologies into their economies. This ongoing strategic shift is expected to stimulate economic growth and enhance security and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) geopolitical alliances by 2026.
The GCC states will drive economic growth in the MENA region, largely driven by increased hydrocarbon output, continued economic diversification efforts, and declining borrowing costs in the GCC.
Lower oil prices will hinder MENA hydrocarbon exporters’ external sector performances and likely constrain their ability to generate foreign currency earnings in 2026.

Shifting asymmetric power in MENA

Unresolved conflict escalation pathways from the 12-day June war between Israel/the US and Iran continue to represent the main driver of regional instability and severe interstate war risks in 2026. US-Iran negotiations over a new nuclear agreement have not yet officially resumed. Further airstrikes in 2026 are likely if Israel (and/or the US) assesses that Iran is making significant progress in reconstituting its enrichment, ballistic missile and advanced air defense capabilities. This is especially likely if no US-Iran nuclear agreement is reached, again triggering Iranian counterstrikes on Israeli territory and maintaining the severe risk of escalation to interstate war.

A resumption of war, with Iran’s conventional offensive capabilities weakened, would increase the likelihood of Iran seeking to at least partially obstruct vessel passage in the Strait of Hormuz, significantly disrupting international trade routes and impacting global energy prices to a higher degree than during the June war.

Supply-chain vulnerabilities will probably determine the willingness of the parties involved to commit to renewed conflict, encouraging more armed exchanges of limited scope and duration. The capacity to sustain and replenish air defense interceptors almost certainly influenced Israeli and the US strategy during the June war.

Militant access to relatively affordable offensive capabilities such as uncrewed systems and cruise and ballistic missiles, and a probable increased reliance on other state-fostered capabilities including AI, will continue posing security challenges to established military powers, and maintain the risk of periodic armed exchanges.

Gulf states, notably the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are positioning themselves for a recalibration of shifting power dynamics, focusing on integrating US-designed computing, networking, and cloud technologies into their economies.

Both governments have recognized AI and data center development as core components of their economic diversification plans. The UAE currently leads the Middle East in data center market size, while Saudi Arabia — which ranks second — is also making significant investments to expand its capabilities. The growth of Saudi Arabia’s data centers is anticipated to support broader Vision 2030 infrastructure objectives, particularly in constructing and expanding desalination plants necessary for cooling.

Substantial investments in AI and data centers also come with risks from technological and security perspectives. The ongoing technological rivalry and strategic competition between the US and mainland China is likely to influence GCC access to critical technologies.

GCC countries' contribution to MENA region GDP growth

Shaky economic foundations, new trade realities in MENA

Risks to the MENA region’s 2026 economic outlook are heavily weighted to the downside due to severe regional war risks and soft hydrocarbon prices. We forecast the MENA region, on aggregate, to record sustained economic growth in 2026, but with stark contrasts within the region. The GCC states will drive economic growth in MENA. Real GDP growth will be largely driven by increased hydrocarbon outputs, continued economic diversification efforts, and declining borrowing costs in the GCC.

The growth trend in the MENA region is, in large part, due to the unwinding of oil output restrictions by OPEC+ until September 2025. The region’s oil producers are critically dependent on global oil demand and oil prices. S&P Global Energy projects an average oil price of US$58 per barrel (Brent) in 2026, down by 16% from projected 2025 averages. This will squeeze oil revenues, which could fall further if global growth performs less strongly, weakening demand for oil.

Non-hydrocarbon growth momentum is set to continue across the GCC economies, in line with their economic development strategies and partly helped by hydrocarbon output increases in conformity with OPEC+ decisions. GCC development plans focusing on reducing reliance on hydrocarbons and encouraging private sector involvement into their economies, coupled with robust domestic demand, are likely to drive the recovery of the non-hydrocarbon economy in 2026.

Such a sustained strong momentum will likely be facilitated by further monetary easing by GCC central banks in line with US Federal Reserve moves. Given the long-standing currency pegs to the dollar, which are unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, we currently forecast two policy rate cuts in GCC states in 2026, leading to less costly borrowing and supporting investment activity in the GCC.

Lower energy prices will continue to place adverse pressure on the external balances of hydrocarbon exporters and their ability to accumulate foreign reserves. Outside the GCC, weaker energy prices will also widen the current account deficits of Algeria, Iraq and Libya.

The pause in Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea is unlikely to hold through 2026 if, as is likely, the Gaza ceasefire collapses; we therefore forecast that any recovery in Suez Canal revenues will at best be gradual.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

10 positive economic outcomes for developing countries in 2025

Jan 7, 2026

Shutterstock/chaphot

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10 positive economic outcomes for developing countries in 2025

Homi Kharas

In BROOKINGS on January 6, 2026

From a growing global middle class to expanding trade and faster, market-driven clean energy adoption, 2025 delivered tangible progress for developing economies despite a difficult global backdrop.
Inflation and food price increases are being held in check, and advances in digital public infrastructure, nutrition, and weather forecasting improved everyday resilience for hundreds of millions of people.
These gains show that, even amid crisis, targeted investments and multilateral cooperation can still move the needle on sustainable development.

2025 was not a good year for emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). It saw a new normal emerge of a world with slow growth, trade wars, overwhelming debt service burdens, collapsing aid, global warming, natural disasters, and conflict.

Amid this litany of woes, it is easy to forget that there were also positive developments. In this commentary, I focus on areas of significant year-over-year progress in EMDEs. This progress may have been slower than potential, but it is nevertheless worth celebrating.

10 positive economic outcomes in EMDEs in 2025

A growing middle class. In spite of slowing growth, about 108 million additional citizens in EMDEs were able to join the ranks of the middle class in 2025, according to data from the World Data Lab. (Disclosure: I am a co-founder of World Data Lab and its Chief Economist.) Most of these new entrants were in South and South East Asia, but Africa and Latin America also saw an increase in their middle-class populations. Globally, the middle class accounted for over half the world’s population for the first time ever.
An expansion of trade. International trade grew strongly in 2025, notwithstanding tariff wars, protectionist measures, and onshoring policies. UNCTAD’s nowcast suggests that global trade in goods and services will exceed $35 trillion in 2025, a rise of 7% over 2024. East Asia’s growth led the way, but African exports also grew strongly—faster than China’s, for example. As one example, Africa led all regions with a 10% rise in tourist arrivals through the first three-quarters of the year. Overall, services growth and South-South trade were leading drivers for EMDE exports.
Faster green energy transitions. In 2025, low-carbon energy transitions in EMDEs became driven by the private sector—utility-scale firms and individual households—responding to lower prices for solar cells and panels. Between August 2022 and August 2025, the average export price of Chinese cells fell from $0.19/W to $0.03/W. Previously, investments depended on government policy, incentives, and publicly mobilized financing. As Tim Appenzeller writes in Science magazine: “That change in motivation may be the most important breakthrough of all, ensuring that this year’s inflection points are just the beginning.”

The scale and speed of the energy transition are impressive. Globally, in the first half of 2025, renewables accounted for a higher share of electricity (34.3%) than coal (33.1%) for the first time ever. This trend was driven by EMDEs: The U.S. and Europe used more coal in 2025 as renewables did not keep pace with demand. China’s story is well-known, but India also added a record 29.5 GW of solar capacity in the first nine months of the year. Similarly, Pakistan has installed around 18GW of solar panels and is on track to produce 20% of its electricity from solar in 2026, compared to 1% in 2023. The focus on renewables spreads well beyond these examples. In Africa, 29 African governments launched National Energy Compacts in 2025 to accelerate energy access and security as part of the newly formed M300 initiative of the World Bank and the African Development Bank.

Peaking global greenhouse gas emissions. It is still too early to tell, but it is possible that 2025 will mark the year when global greenhouse gas emissions flatten or decline. Climate TRACE, a non-profit coalition estimating real-time emissions, showed declining emissions in the early part of 2025 but now a very small increase of 55% in 2025 over 2024, perhaps because of data center use. The start of a downward global trend in emissions would be very good news for EMDEs. They bear the brunt of the natural disasters generated by climate change due to poor infrastructure, vulnerable populations, and reliance on agriculture. The World Resources Institute reckons the world is projected to warm by 2.3-2.9 °C; a dangerous prospect, and a far cry from the Paris 1.5 degree target, but roughly half of what was anticipated when the Paris Agreement was made a decade ago.
Signs that multilateralism can still work. The reports of the death of multilateralism in 2025 were exaggerated. True, some events disappointed, notably the shelving of previously-agreed-upon maritime emissions levies, and the adjournment of talks on a global plastics pollution treaty, but there were examples of success in other areas. A High Seas treaty protecting biodiversity beyond national jurisdictions (BBNJ) was ratified and will legally enter into force in January 2026, providing an established process for marine protected areas and other matters. Both the World Bank and IMF successfully shored up support from their major shareholder, the United States. The International Finance Corporation launched an inaugural collateralized loan obligation, establishing a new class of assets in EMDEs with the potential to reach scale by tapping into global institutional investors.
Business is still investing in sustainability. Despite reports to the contrary and a clear rollback in public policy requirements in the U.S. and Europe, business is still investing in sustainability. The green debt market surpassed $3 trillion in 2025 and, notwithstanding some slowdowns in the U.S. and Europe, issuances in the Asia Pacific region have strongly trended upward. Cost reductions and revenue growth drive corporate sustainability efforts, and there was solid growth in assets and returns in ESG funds in 2025, with particular interest from younger investors.
Inflation and food price increases are being held in check. While negative news on inflation dominated headlines in several advanced economies, EMDE inflation in 2025 was the lowest since the IMF began its tracking in 2016. While there are regional differences, 12-month trailing inflation in Africa is ending the year at half its 2024 level. Some of this is attributable to low prices for traded foodstuffs. The FAO’s commodity price index shows declines in 2025 of the nominal international prices of cereals, dairy, and sugar.
Going digital. After a slow start in building digital infrastructure backbones, developing countries are catching up to the rest of the world. According to the 2025 State of Digital Public Infrastructure report, as of 2025, at least 64 countries (including advanced economies) have DPI-like digital ID systems, 97 countries have DPI-like digital payment systems, and 103 countries have DPI-like data exchange systems, with many more in the planned or piloting stage. According to the same report, “Africa, Asia, and Latin America, and the Caribbean have the most dynamic and rapidly evolving picture for deployments …”
Better nutrition. School meals have long been recognized as highly impactful for nutrition, learning, and overall child well-being. The latest State of School Feeding Worldwide report, released in 2025, finds that 466 million children worldwide receive school meals, with almost half of all primary school children covered. 60% more children are being reached in low-income countries compared to two years ago. Almost all the funding is from national government budgets, suggesting that school meals might escape the effects of the sharp aid reductions of 2025.
More useful weather forecasting. The Extraordinary World Meteorological Congress in October 2025 reported on its shift to go beyond assessing “what the weather will be” to “what the weather will do to lives, infrastructure and livelihoods,” by integrating AI into its operational forecasts. The Early Warnings for All initiative, aimed at providing coverage of multi-hazard forecasts to all people by 2027, had an “unprecedented pace of progress” in 2025, with new pilots and capacity-building projects aimed at developing countries.

All is not well for people living in developing countries. But 2025 did see progress, at considerable scale, in a range of areas. Sustainable development practitioners should celebrate the positives while continuing to advocate for faster progress.

Author

New year as a time for unity, hospitality, and hope in the MENA

Jan 3, 2026

Heartwarming scene of children playing in a refugee camp in Idlib, Syria. By Ahmed akacha via Pexels

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New year as a time for unity, hospitality, and hope in the MENA region

By Suraiyya Aziz

In Blitz, Saturday, January 3, 2026

Middle East, Middle East and North Africa, Arab world, New Year celebrations, MENA, MENA, Dammam, Jeddah, North Africa, Gulf states, Riyadh, Christian communities

As 2025 gave way to 2026, millions of people across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and the wider Arab world marked the transition into a new calendar year in diverse and meaningful ways. While the Gregorian New Year does not carry universal religious significance across the region, its arrival has increasingly become a shared cultural moment – one that offers space for reflection, connection, and collective hope. Against a backdrop of conflict, political uncertainty, economic hardship, and humanitarian challenges, the welcoming of 2026 carried a deeper resonance than mere celebration. It became, for many, a quiet yet powerful affirmation of life, resilience, and social cohesion.

The transition into the new year unfolded amid a complex historical and political context. Throughout 2025, large parts of the region continued to grapple with armed conflicts, displacement, inflation, and fragile governance. From protracted wars and unresolved crises to the everyday pressures of rising costs of living and unemployment, many communities entered 2026 bearing heavy burdens. Yet, despite these realities, the arrival of the new year once again brought people together, offering a symbolic pause – a collective breath – and the opportunity to imagine a more peaceful future.

Importantly, New Year celebrations in the MENA region should not be viewed as a uniform or monolithic phenomenon. On the contrary, they reflect the region’s extraordinary cultural, religious, and ethnic diversity. The Middle East and North Africa are home to civilizations that span millennia, shaped by layers of faith, language, and tradition. As such, the way the new year is observed varies widely between countries, cities, and communities, ranging from large-scale public festivities to intimate family gatherings and moments of personal reflection.

While the Gregorian calendar’s New Year is not a religious observance in Islam, it has gradually evolved into a social and cultural occasion across much of the Arab and Islamic worlds, particularly in urban centers. For many, it represents a symbolic threshold – a chance to leave behind a difficult year and renew hopes for peace, stability, and dignity in the months ahead. This symbolic meaning has become especially important in societies where uncertainty has become a defining feature of daily life.

In several parts of the Arab world, particularly in the Gulf states, New Year celebrations have taken on a distinctly public, open, and communal character. Major cities have emerged as global destinations for festivities, combining modern urban spectacle with deeply rooted traditions of hospitality. Fireworks displays, public concerts, cultural performances, and family-oriented events have become common features, signaling the expansion of public spaces dedicated to entertainment and social interaction.

Saudi Arabia provides a notable example of this evolving approach. Although the New Year is not an official religious or national holiday in the Kingdom, recent years have seen it embraced as a cultural and social moment that welcomes both residents and international visitors. Through broader national entertainment frameworks – most prominently Riyadh Season – New Year’s Eve has been integrated into multi-day celebrations across various venues. These events combine large-scale public spectacles with family-friendly attractions, international sports competitions, concerts, and immersive cultural experiences.

In Riyadh, areas such as Boulevard City have become focal points for light shows, live performances, diverse culinary offerings, and midnight fireworks. Coastal cities like Jeddah and Dammam, meanwhile, host open and accessible celebrations along their corniches, blending music, public gatherings, and waterfront displays. These developments reflect not only changing social norms but also a broader effort to create inclusive urban environments where people from different backgrounds can gather peacefully.

Similarly, in the United Arab Emirates, New Year celebrations have evolved into extended cultural experiences rather than single-night events. Dubai, in particular, has reimagined the occasion as a multi-day festival stretching across more than a week. Central districts transform into immersive public arenas featuring large-scale visual displays, performances, and communal activities. In this context, the New Year is no longer viewed as a fleeting moment but as a continuous, shared experience that emphasizes participation and togetherness.

Beyond the Gulf, New Year practices across North Africa and the Levant often blend global customs with local traditions and sensibilities. In countries such as Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia, the New Year is commonly observed through family gatherings, shared meals, music, and quiet time spent together. While celebrations in these societies may appear less spectacular on the surface, they often carry deep emotional and social significance.

In communities affected by political instability or economic hardship, the New Year becomes a symbol of collective endurance and survival. Social events, however modest, aim to strengthen family ties, reconnect with friends, and express gratitude for having endured another difficult year. In such contexts, celebration is not an act of excess but an assertion of humanity – a reminder that joy and solidarity can persist even in the most challenging circumstances.

Religious diversity across the MENA region further enriches the meaning of the New Year. Christian communities, present across the Levant, Egypt, Iraq, and parts of North Africa, often mark the occasion within a broader season of religious celebration and spiritual reflection. For these communities, the transition into a new calendar year carries emotional and symbolic weight, intertwined with themes of renewal, faith, and hope. Their visible participation in public and private celebrations underscores the region’s long-standing pluralism and shared cultural heritage.

Ethnic and cultural minorities also engage with the New Year in ways that reinforce social cohesion. Kurdish communities in parts of the Levant, for example, may prioritize their own traditional calendars and seasonal festivals, such as Nowruz, while still recognizing the Gregorian New Year as an additional moment of connection. Rather than undermining cultural identity, this layered approach to time and celebration highlights the region’s ability to accommodate multiple traditions within a shared social space.

Crucially, the arrival of 2026 comes at a moment marked by a widespread desire for peace, stability, and dignity across the region. In this sense, New Year celebrations can be seen as a quiet refusal to allow conflict and division to define the entirety of social life in the Middle East and North Africa. Hospitality, friendship, and cultural expression remain central to the region’s identity, even amid turmoil.

Across borders, religions, and cultures, people welcomed the new year through public festivities, family gatherings, or moments of quiet reflection. Even in societies where the Gregorian calendar is not formally recognized, the welcoming of visitors and the accommodation of diverse forms of celebration reflect deeply rooted values of generosity, inclusion, and coexistence. These shared practices point to a unique regional characteristic: a form of cohesion that transcends political boundaries and religious calendars, shaped by centuries of communal life and cultural exchange.

In this light, New Year celebrations in the MENA region are not merely modern social practices imported from elsewhere. They are expressions of long-standing commitments to community, pluralism, and peaceful coexistence. They reaffirm that, despite conflict and hardship, the region’s societies continue to value human connection and collective hope.

As 2026 begins, there is a shared wish that the coming year will bring an end to cycles of violence, greater respect for human life and dignity, and a renewed commitment to dialogue and peace. May this year be one in which forgiveness, prosperity, joy, and friendship replace confrontation and division – and may the rich and extraordinary cultures of the Middle East and the Arab world continue to flourish in peace.

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Suraiyya Aziz specialises in topics related to the Middle East and the Arab world

MENA strengthens its role in global student mobility

Jan 2, 2026

Young woman working on laptop near luggage in stylish hotel lounge, embracing the digital nomad lifestyle. By Anna Shvets via Pexels

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MENA strengthens its role in global student mobility

A new Studyportals–British Council analysis shows MENA strengthening its role in global higher education, with growing demand for study in the region alongside sustained outbound mobility.

by Zeina El Qirem

The Pie

January 1 2026

The MENA region is emerging as both a growing study destination and a major source of internationally mobile students. Photo: Pexels

A recent report from Studyportals–British Council has identified the MENA region as one of the most dynamic and evolving players in global education. While outbound student interest remains high, there is a clear increase in students exploring options within the region.

The report measures “demand” using student search and engagement activity on the Studyportals platform. For three consecutive years, engagement with MENA programs has grown, suggesting a significant regional shift in behaviour as global pressures influence where and how students choose to study; mirroring a wider international trend in which affordability concerns, fluctuating visa policies, and capacity constraints in traditional Western destinations are encouraging students to consider alternatives closer to home.

A strong alignment between program choices and regional economic priorities accompanies this emerging pattern. Students continue to gravitate towards fields closely linked to local labour market demand, and most notably in computer science and general business and management. These preferences reflect the ongoing digital and economic transformation shaping many of the MENA economies, further reinforcing the region’s appeal as a competitive study environment.

Among the region’s emerging study destinations, the United Arab Emirates stands out as the clear leader. Its ecosystem of international branch campuses, English language use, and diverse academic offerings draws significantly higher levels of engagement than elsewhere in MENA.

“In Dubai, we’ve had a very planned approach to building the higher education sector; this started over 20 years ago. We were the first to create economic trade zones for education, Dubai Knowledge Park, and Dubai National Academy City. We worked over the years to create a very stable, regulatory environment, to attract international campuses,” said Nitesh Sughnani, director of university ratings at the KHDA, during a panel discussion hosted by Studyportals.

In Dubai, we’ve had a very planned approach to building the higher education sector; this started over 20 years ago
_{Nitesh Sughnani, KHDA}

Saudi Arabia is not far behind. Driven by major national investment in higher education infrastructure, scholarship programs, digital innovation, and skills development, Saudi is increasingly gaining attention from both regional and international students. The expansion of flexible, blended and online learning options has also helped position the county as a strong destination, aiming to enhance accessibility and appeal to students who hold financial or mobility concerns.

Other MENA countries (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Qatar) are also showing a steady increase in visibility, indicating a broader strengthening of the region’s overall higher education landscape.

While much of this growth reflects rising interest in studying within the MENA region, the report also highlights how outbound student mobility from the region is evolving. For the purposes of the report, MENA follows Studyportals’ regional classification, which includes Turkey.

When it comes to outbound demand, at the bachelor’s level, Turkey emerges as the leading origin market, accounting for 20.6% of total outbound demand from the MENA region and recording a 2.7% year-on-year increase (July 2023 – June 2024). Iran, while still a major source market with a 13.2% share, experienced the most notable decline, with demand falling by 4.1%. This downturn may be linked to the easing of the religious and political tensions that were marked, driving outward mobility among Iranian students.

Other significant undergraduate source countries within the region include the UAE (12.0%), Morocco (10.6%), and Egypt (8.1%), all of which display relative stability or moderate growth.

Notably, Egypt recorded a 2% increase, suggesting a rising interest among Egyptian students in pursuing education abroad amid domestic pressures and an increasingly saturated higher education landscape.

At the master’s level, demand is more concentrated with Iran and Turkey remaining dominant source markets and together accounting for over 56% of regional demand.

Their trajectories diverge markedly as Turkey records a strong 5.1% year-on-year increase in demand to study abroad, while Iran experienced a sharp decline, reinforcing the downward trend observed at the bachelor’s level. Additionally, Egypt continues to play a significant role, holding an 8.0% share and posting a 2.9% increase, driven by a growing youth population and limited domestic postgraduate capacity.

The UAE (5.9%), Morocco (5.6%), and Tunisia (4.6%) also feature as secondary source markets, although with relatively modest changes in demand.

Although the report confirms that outbound demand from MENA remains steady and resilient, what is particularly notable, however, is the growing interest among students studying within the region itself.

One of the most strategic drivers behind the region’s rising appeal is the high concentration of transnational education (TNE) institutions operating across the region. Although Asia still dominates the global TNE market, the MENA region stands out for the density of foreign branch campuses relative to its population. This density is emerging as a significant competitive advantage.

TNE provision in the region is playing more than a supplementary role, actively shaping the region’s international attractiveness by providing students with access to globally recognised qualifications that facilitate relocation abroad.

The demand patterns highlighted in the report reveal a close alignment between what students are exploring academically and the skills MENA economies are prioritising. Computer science remains the top area of interest across the region, supported by national digital transformation plans and the strong push for AI, cybersecurity, and tech innovation.

Programs like engineering and technology, along with business and management, continue to attract substantial engagement as well, reflecting the region’s focus on entrepreneurship, economic diversification, and private sector expansion. Together, these fields demonstrate that students are responding directly to the employment landscape shaped by national reform agendas.

The report situates MENA within a shifting global landscape in which traditional destination countries face significant pressure. Rising tuition fees, more complex visa regimes, and increased capacity limitations in Western universities have made studying abroad more challenging for many students. As a result, the trend toward regionalisation, students choosing to remain closer to home, is accelerating.

“Moving away from the big four, big six, traditional markets, and all of the visa and immigration challenges that are happening has really driven that demand; but also it is the connections that some of these governments have to the employments to building those provisions and knowledge hubs for students that then leads onto building the economy, contributing to the GDP and to really the kind of regional pull and dominance that some of those STEM fields, in particular, have” said Megan Agnew, global partnerships manager at British Council.

This shift plays directly into MENA’s strengths. With the UAE and Saudi Arabia leading the charge and several neighboring countries building visibility, the region is increasingly able to absorb mobility that is being redirected away from saturated global markets.

“We launched an education strategy last year, the Dubai 2033 agenda. This economic and social aspect aims to double Dubai’s GDP over the next ten years, and to be one of the top three cities in the world in various sectors,” explained Sughnani.

“We are moving away from the institution regulations to what the student is focusing on and how we bring that to the centre of this journey,” he added.