14 March 2026 11:25 pm
Climate Crisis, Human Mobility and Security Challenges in MENA

Climate Crisis, Human Mobility and Security Challenges in MENA

Feb 25, 2026

Explore the stunning desert architecture and landscapes of Tataouine, Tunisia. by Mahmoud Yahyaoui via pexels

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Climate Crisis, Human Mobility and Security Challenges in the MENA Region: Implications for Sustainable Development and Regional Stability

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First published: 23 February 2026
https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.70820Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

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ABSTRACT

This study examines the interplay between climate change, violent conflict and forced migration in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), focusing on asylum flows to the European Union (EU). By integrating high-resolution climate, conflict and socioeconomic data spanning 2000 to 2023, we develop a comprehensive empirical framework to identify the key drivers of cross-border migration. Using a machine learning approach with a Random Forest Model (RFM), we compare its predictive performance against the traditional Gravity Model (GM). The RFM, which captures nonlinear relationships and variable interactions, significantly outperforms the GM, explaining over 53% of the variance in migration patterns. Our findings highlight the predominant influence of conflict and economic instability as primary predictors, while climate-related stressors, particularly drought severity and agricultural decline, function as threat multipliers, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and amplifying displacement pressures. The analysis demonstrates that climate conditions alone are insufficient to explain migration surges; rather, it is the convergence of environmental, political and socio-economic fragilities that drives forced mobility. This research offers critical insights for migration governance and underscores the importance of integrated policy responses that address both immediate humanitarian needs and long-term structural resilience in the face of accelerating climate change. A key limitation is that the analysis focuses exclusively on asylum applications from MENA countries to the EU, does not capture internal or regional displacement and relies on country-level, predictive modelling that cannot establish causal relationships or reflect subnational climate–conflict heterogeneity.

1 Introduction

1.1 Climate Change, Vulnerability and Emerging Security Risks

Climate change impacts are intensifying globally, with rising temperatures, extreme heat and droughts increasingly affecting ecosystems, economies and human security (Mukherjee and Mishra 2021; Gao et al. 2023; Wu et al. 2024; Li et al. 2025). These climatic pressures disproportionately undermine livelihoods in low- and middle-income regions, where water scarcity and agricultural decline exacerbate poverty and inequality (Abel et al. 2019; Cattaneo and Foreman 2023; Schutte et al. 2021; Clements 2024; Wang, et al. 2025a). Such vulnerabilities heighten exposure to food insecurity and economic fragility, particularly among rural, marginalised and gender-vulnerable populations (Maconga 2023; Schuster et al. 2024; Alam et al. 2024; Dirie et al. 2024; Amin 2025). These dynamics have amplified global concern over the climate change–conflict–migration (CCM) nexus, whereby environmental stressors interact with structural political and socioeconomic weaknesses to intensify instability and displacement (Abel et al. 2019; Mach et al. 2020; Eklund et al. 2022; Anderson et al. 2021; Han et al. 2024; Zheng et al. 2025).

1.2 Climate Change, Conflict Dynamics and Pathways of Migration

Environmental stress influences mobility through both direct impacts (e.g., infrastructure loss, agricultural collapse) and indirect mechanisms such as economic decline or heightened violence (Khavarian-Garmsir et al. 2019; Mukherjee and Fransen 2024). Forced displacement often emerges where climatic, political and socioeconomic pressures intersect (Abel et al. 2019; Lunt et al. 2016; Schuster et al. 2024; Wang et al. 2025b). These interlinkages form the core of the CCM nexus, which emphasises how climate stress interacts with conflict dynamics to shape diverse mobility outcomes. Migration responses range from temporary internal displacement to long-distance international movement, although high vulnerability may also generate immobility traps (Schutte et al. 2021; Ngcamu 2023; Thalheimer et al. 2025; Cattaneo et al. 2019). Persistent conceptual and methodological challenges complicate the measurement of climate-induced migration (Cattaneo et al. 2019; Hällfors et al. 2024). Earlier narratives portrayed environmental migration as a security threat (Hartmann 2010; Black et al. 2011; Koubi et al. 2018, 2021), particularly in rural regions of the Global South (Almulhim et al. 2024). Within the CCM nexus, one of the most extensively documented pathways is the effect of agricultural production shocks on conflict, which heighten resource competition and socioeconomic stress (Falco et al. 2019; Xie et al. 2024). More broadly, climate anomalies influence civil unrest through economic channels, mental health impacts and food insecurity (Miguel et al. 2004; Basu et al. 2017; Meadows et al. 2024; Hsiang et al. 2013; Kori 2023). Despite the expanding literature, empirical integration of CCM mechanisms into a unified analytical framework remains limited and contested (Watson et al. 2023).

1.3 Forced Migration Trends and Evidence From the MENA Region

Traditional models of asylum migration emphasise political repression and violence as primary drivers (Moore and Shellman 2004), yet contemporary evidence points to a far more complex interplay of environmental, economic and political pressures, consistent with the CCM nexus (Abel et al. 2019; Schutte et al. 2021; Schuster et al. 2024). According to UNHCR’s Global Trends report (UNHCR 2023; https://www.unhcr.org/media/global-trends-report-2023), 108.4 million people were forcibly displaced worldwide at the end of 2022, increasing to 117.3 million by the end of 2023, the highest numbers ever recorded (Wu and Wang 2018). Complementary estimates from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) indicate that over 32 million internal displacements in 2022 were triggered by disasters, many of them climate-related. These official statistics underscore the scale and complexity of contemporary mobility pressures and highlight the growing relevance of climate–conflict interactions. Although climate impacts most often generate short-distance or internal displacement (Missirian and Schlenker 2017; Abel et al. 2019; Cuong et al. 2024), deteriorating environmental conditions in origin countries have also been linked to rising asylum applications to the EU, with potential increases of up to threefold under high-warming scenarios (Missirian and Schlenker 2017). The MENA region illustrates these compound dynamics vividly. The severe 2006–2010 drought in Syria contributed to agricultural collapse and rural–urban migration (Gleick 2014; Kelley et al. 2015; Mathbout et al. 2018), but it was the interaction of environmental stress with longstanding political repression, governance failures and economic decline (De Châtel 2014; Selby et al. 2017; Eklund et al. 2022; Alhaj Omar et al. 2023) that precipitated civil conflict and one of the largest forced displacement crises in modern history. This convergence exemplifies the intertwined mechanisms central to the CCM nexus.

1.4 Gaps in Knowledge and Need for Integrated Analytical Approaches

Despite substantial progress, important gaps remain in understanding how climate change, conflict, and socioeconomic conditions jointly shape migration outcomes. Climate–conflict research has improved spatial and temporal resolution using subnational datasets (Koren and Bagozzi 2017; Delazeri et al. 2022; Sundberg and Melander 2013; Gleditsch 2020; Vesco et al. 2022; Martínez Flores et al. 2024), while migration studies show that climatic variability affects key economic mediators such as GDP, wages and agricultural productivity (Beine and Parsons 2015; Martínez-Zarzoso 2020; Martínez-Zarzoso et al. 2023). Yet findings remain heterogeneous across regions, periods and population groups. In the MENA region specifically, drought and temperature anomalies aggravate instability (Suleymanov 2024; Ranucci et al. 2025), but their impacts are intertwined with governance weaknesses, economic fragility and social vulnerability (Ash and Obradovich 2020; Dinc and Eklund 2023). A major methodological limitation is that most migration-modelling studies rely on linear or log-linear approaches, such as gravity models or fixed-effects regressions, that assume additive, monotonic relationships and therefore cannot capture the nonlinear thresholds, compound effects and interaction pathways central to the CCM nexus. For example, drought may influence migration only once critical severity levels are reached, or conflict may magnify climatic stress depending on economic resilience or governance capacity. These dynamics remain underexplored because conventional econometric models impose restrictive functional forms that obscure such complexities. This study addresses this conceptual gap by employing a Random Forest–based analytical framework capable of modelling nonlinear, interactive and multi-scalar relationships that traditional methods cannot detect. Our variable selection, encompassing climate, conflict, socioeconomic, governance, demographic, and geographic indicators, is grounded in the CCM framework and reflects the theorised channels through which environmental stress interacts with political instability and structural vulnerabilities to shape migration decisions. By integrating these dimensions into a unified empirical design, this study provides a more comprehensive assessment of CCM dynamics and advances beyond the constraints of existing linear modelling approaches.

Figure 1 presents the conceptual framework guiding this study, synthesised from the existing literature on the climate–conflict–migration nexus. The framework illustrates the hypothesised pathways through which climatic stressors, particularly drought and water scarcity, interact with agricultural impacts, socioeconomic vulnerability, political instability and conflict dynamics to shape migration outcomes. Rather than representing a methodological component, the framework serves as an integrative lens that structures the study’s analytical focus and informs the interpretation of the empirical results.

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Details are in the caption following the image

FIGURE 1

Open in figure viewerPowerPoint
Interconnected drivers of migration: climate, conflict and social unrest. Conceptual framework derived from the climate–conflict–migration literature and visualised in R (DiagrammeR package).

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Details are in the caption following the image

 

FIGURE 2

Open in figure viewerPowerPoint
Historical total annual precipitation (TP) and reference evapotranspiration (ET0) (upper panel) and mean annual temperature (MAT) and hypsometric elevation (ElV) (lower panel) across Arab states, 2000–2023.

For more, read the article on Wiley Online Library

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Urban sustainability in the global south

Urban sustainability in the global south

Feb 14, 2026

Satellite view of Earth at night with illuminated cities across continents. By Pixabay via pexels

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Urban sustainability in the global south

Scientific Reports volume 16, Article number: 6152 (2026) Cite this article

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Urbanization in the Global South is accelerating amid a confluence of ecological, social, and developmental pressures that diverge considerably from those experienced in the Global North. Recent advances in spatial analysis, environmental modeling, and related fields are reshaping scholarly understandings of these multifaceted challenges and the targeted policy responses needed to address them. The Urban Sustainability in the Global South Collection, published in Scientific Reports, compiles interdisciplinary research contributions that elucidate ongoing urban transformations and provide evidence-based insights to inform pathways toward inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable urban futures, aligned with Sustainable Development Goal 11 (SDG 11).

The trajectory of global urbanization underscores the pressing need to address urban sustainability, particularly as a substantial proportion of current and future urban growth is predicted to occur in the Global South1. The discourse on urban sustainability has, however, long exhibited an implicit bias toward cities in the Global North, which have frequently been positioned as models for emulation2. This perspective insufficiently acknowledges the distinct and complex conditions that shape urban development in the Global South, including rapid demographic transitions, informality, fiscal and institutional constraints, colonial planning legacies, and heightened vulnerability to climate-related risks3,4. Therefore, achieving sustainable urban development in this context necessitates a decisive shift in perspective.

Instead of framing the discourse on how cities of the Global South can simply “catch up,” we argue for an empirically grounded reframing that starts from local biophysical and socioeconomic conditions and leads to context-specific solutions2. This shift is also consistent with evidence that climate-related urban risks are intensifying and are shaped by local exposure, vulnerability, and governance capacity, particularly in rapidly growing cities.

This Collection, Urban Sustainability in the Global South, was dedicated to supporting and amplifying research aligned with Sustainable Development Goal 11 (SDG 11), Sustainable Cities and Communities. It aimed to bring together a diverse range of contributions that not only document the multifaceted challenges confronting cities of the Global South but also shed light on pathways toward inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable urban futures.

Nine papers are included in this Collection. They cover diverse countries, including but not limited to China, Pakistan, Egypt, Iran, India, and South Africa. Methodologically, they employ advanced data-driven approaches, including geographic information systems, remote sensing technologies, and state-of-the-art econometrics and statistical techniques. Together, these papers provide nuanced and empirically grounded insights into various critical areas, such as climate vulnerability and social equity in green infrastructure. They can be broadly categorized into two groups: urban green spaces (3 papers) and urban sustainability and resilience (6 papers).

Urban green spaces not only play a pivotal role in shaping human activity behaviors and promoting healthy lifestyles but also serve as essential infrastructure for urban sustainability5,6,7. Kifayatullah et al.8 employed GIS-based spatial analysis to examine the spatial distribution, typology, and functionality of urban green spaces in Islamabad, Pakistan, revealing pronounced spatial inequities. For example, wealthier areas possessed larger and better-maintained green spaces. The authors argue that these disparities compromise both ecological integrity and social cohesion and thus advocate data-driven planning to advance the equitable provision of green space. Complementing this supply-side perspective, Mohamed and Kronenberg9 analyzed users’ perceptions of park accessibility and attractiveness in Cairo, Egypt, by mining social media data (specifically, online reviews). They revealed that user-generated content provides urban planners and practitioners with nuanced insights that can inform evidence-based planning and management decisions. Maleknia and Svobodova10 investigated the behavioral determinants of Iranian female high-school students’ intentions to conserve urban forests through an extended theory of planned behavior. The authors found that attitudes, perceived behavioral control, environmental awareness, and social responsibility emerged as significant predictors, whereas subjective norms did not. Consequently, they emphasized the pivotal role of cultivating environmental responsibility and practical skills to foster youth engagement in urban forest conservation.

As emphasized in SDG 11, urban sustainability and resilience are of paramount importance to cities worldwide. Hzami et al.11 evaluated the vulnerability of coastal energy infrastructure in Doha, Qatar, under diverse sea-level rise scenarios. Their projections indicated that by 2100, nearly 60% of the city’s land area and 39% of its residential power units will be at risk of inundation. Their analysis underscores the urgent necessity for integrated adaptation strategies aimed at safeguarding coastal infrastructure and enhancing energy resilience. In the context of heat-related risks, Ramachandra et al.12 investigated the linkages between urban heat islands and landscape morphology in Bangalore, India. Their findings revealed that landscapes covered with vegetation and water bodies serve as critical heat sinks, playing a vital role in mitigating urban heat. Shifting the focus from climatic hazards to social development, Avtar et al.13 examined the impact of built-up population density on human well-being in Delhi, India. They found that while moderate density can improve access to services, excessive density exacerbates infrastructure pressure, reduces green space availability, and intensifies resource stress. Consequently, they proposed context-specific (place-varying) urban planning strategies to address these challenges. Zhang et al.14 explored the environmental implications of China’s super urban agglomeration strategy. They demonstrated that industrial aggregation generally has an inverted U-shaped effect on industrial pollution, though this effect varies across urban agglomerations at different stages of development. They argued that context-specific industrial agglomeration policies and cross-regional environmental governance are crucial for balancing economic efficiency with ecological sustainability. Bai and Shen15 analyzed the influence of the digital economy on sustainable urban development across 30 underdeveloped cities in northwest China. Their findings underscore the critical importance of developing differentiated digital strategies to foster inclusive and sustainable urban transformation processes. Du Plessis et al.16 explored the feasibility of integrating co-creation approaches into conventional landscape design practices, while carefully considering the diverse interests of relevant stakeholders.

Collectively, the papers in this Collection underscore the inherent complexity of urban sustainability in the Global South, while demonstrating that localized, data-driven, and context-specific approaches are indispensable. They offer timely and evidence-based guidance for policymakers and practitioners striving to build inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable urban futures. Future research and practice can be advanced along several key directions: (1) developing innovative methodologies and data governance systems to enhance the monitoring and holistic understanding of urban transformation processes across the Global South; (2) strengthening data-informed planning frameworks that safeguard equitable access to healthy and livable environments for all residents; (3) exploring urban–rural linkages to strengthen ecological resilience, consolidate food security, and promote regional sustainability; and (4) deepening locally grounded and inclusive approaches that integrate diverse cultural norms, institutional arrangements, and multi-level governance perspectives.

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For all References, read the article in Nature

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$26bn waterfront city project in Dammam

$26bn waterfront city project in Dammam

Feb 11, 2026

A cyclist rides through Dammam at dusk, reflecting in a puddle on the city street. By Bryan Javier via pexels

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Saudi Arabia launches $26bn waterfront city project in Dammam

DAMMAM 
Saudi Arabia launches $26bn waterfront city project in Dammam

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Saudi Arabia has launched a massive SR98 billion ($26 billion) seaside residential and mixed-use project in Dammam, covering an area of approximately 32 million sq m, according to a report by the Saudi Press Agency (SPA).

The development, described as a fully integrated coastal urban destination, is set to reshape the Eastern Province’s waterfront with residential neighbourhoods, commercial districts, business hubs and leisure facilities built around extensive marine frontage.

Prince Saud bin Nayef bin Abdulaziz, the Eastern Province Governor, on Monday launched the ‘New Dammam’ project, developed by Adel real estate company in partnership with Alinma company, an investment arm of the Saudi Alinma Bank.

Integrated coastal city

The project will feature a network of waterfront zones, including a main marine canal, marinas and inlets, designed to enhance the appeal of coastal living. Plans also include expansive green areas exceeding 500,000 sq m, along with public parks and open spaces aimed at improving liveability and quality of life.

Strategically located in Dammam, the development is expected to be integrated with key transport corridors, including major roadway links serving the wider Eastern Region.

The project is being developed by a local real estate company, with financial structuring and investment management supported by a Saudi financial institution, according to Arabic-language reports.

Vision 2030 alignment

The Dammam waterfront project forms part of Saudi Arabia’s broader Vision 2030 strategy, which prioritises large-scale urban transformation, housing expansion and private-sector participation in real estate development.

The Kingdom has been accelerating giga-projects and large master-planned communities across multiple regions, aiming to increase home ownership rates, stimulate economic diversification and enhance urban sustainability.

Once completed, the Dammam project is expected to significantly expand the Eastern Province’s residential capacity while creating new commercial and recreational opportunities along the Gulf coastline.

Trade Arabia

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Why renewable energy in MENA depends more on economic stability

Why renewable energy in MENA depends more on economic stability

Feb 10, 2026

A scenic view of wind turbines in a desert, symbolising clean, renewable energy technology.  By Kindel Media via pexels

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Why renewable energy in MENA depends more on economic stability than resources

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CO-EDP Technology

CO-EDP, VisionRI

Updated: 10-02-2026 12:24 IST | Created: 10-02-2026 12:24 IST

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Why renewable energy in MENA depends more on economic stability than resources

Credit: ChatGPT

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Rising inflation and economic instability are the critical obstacles to renewable energy growth across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), according to new academic research. While the region has invested heavily in solar and wind capacity, long-term deployment remains vulnerable to shifting macroeconomic conditions. The study finds that economic fundamentals now play a decisive role in determining whether renewable energy projects advance or stall.

Published in Economies, the study Macroeconomic Determinants of Renewable Energy Deployment: The Role of Inflation, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Volatility in MENA Countries (2000–2023), the research examines data from 16 MENA economies and shows that inflation and volatility consistently undermine renewable energy security, while targeted fiscal policy supports sustained deployment

Inflation and volatility undermine long-term energy investment

Inflation acts as a persistent brake on renewable energy deployment across the MENA region. Renewable energy projects are capital-intensive by nature, with long payback periods and returns that depend heavily on stable financial conditions. When inflation rises, the real value of future revenues falls, financing costs increase, and investor confidence weakens. The study finds that higher inflation rates are associated with a statistically significant decline in the share of renewable electricity in total power generation, both in the short term and over the long run.

This link matters deeply for MENA economies, where inflationary episodes have often coincided with global commodity price shocks, currency pressures, and domestic fiscal stress. In such environments, renewable energy investments become less attractive relative to short-term spending priorities or conventional energy projects backed by existing infrastructure. The research shows that inflation does not merely slow renewable growth temporarily, but systematically erodes the conditions needed for sustained deployment.

Economic volatility aggravates this problem. The study demonstrates that higher levels of macroeconomic instability significantly reduce renewable energy security across the region. Volatility increases uncertainty around future demand, regulatory frameworks, exchange rates, and financing conditions, all of which are critical for projects that require long planning horizons. In volatile economies, investors tend to delay or cancel irreversible investments, and renewable energy projects are often among the first to be postponed.

This finding is particularly relevant in the MENA context, where economic cycles are closely tied to fluctuations in oil and gas revenues. When hydrocarbon prices fall, fiscal balances weaken and uncertainty rises, even as diversification into renewable energy becomes more urgent. The study shows that this contradiction creates a structural challenge: the same economic instability that makes renewable energy diversification necessary also undermines the conditions required to carry it out.

Importantly, the negative effects of inflation and volatility are not limited to long-term trends. The research finds that short-term shocks in both variables have immediate adverse impacts on renewable energy deployment. While these effects are smaller in magnitude than long-run impacts, they demonstrate how sensitive renewable energy investment decisions are to changing macroeconomic signals.

Fiscal policy plays a decisive enabling role

The study finds that government spending directed toward energy infrastructure, renewable subsidies, and capital investment has a statistically significant and durable positive effect on renewable energy security. Unlike inflation and volatility, which discourage private investment, targeted fiscal action can reduce risk, lower costs, and crowd in private capital.

The research notes that not all public spending is equally effective. What matters is fiscal policy that directly supports renewable energy development, such as investment in grid infrastructure, financial incentives for renewable projects, and public participation in early-stage market development. These measures help overcome market failures that often prevent private investors from entering renewable sectors in emerging or transitional economies.

The positive impact of fiscal policy holds in both the short run and the long run. In the short term, increased government spending can stimulate immediate activity by improving project bankability and signaling policy commitment. Over time, sustained fiscal support helps build institutional capacity, reduce financing costs, and accelerate learning effects that make renewable energy more competitive.

The study also highlights important regional differences. While fiscal policy has a positive effect across the MENA region as a whole, its effectiveness varies between hydrocarbon-exporting and hydrocarbon-importing countries. In non-oil economies, fiscal support tends to have a stronger marginal impact on renewable deployment, reflecting greater reliance on public intervention to attract private investment. In oil-rich countries, fiscal policy remains important but must compete with entrenched fossil fuel interests and revenue structures.

According to the research, fiscal policy cannot operate in isolation. Expansionary spending loses much of its effectiveness in environments marked by high inflation or persistent economic volatility. Without macroeconomic stability, even well-designed fiscal incentives struggle to deliver lasting results. This finding reinforces the study’s central message that renewable energy policy and macroeconomic policy are deeply interconnected.

Energy transition depends on economic stability, not resources alone

Renewable energy security is measured not by installed capacity or policy targets, but by the actual share of renewable electricity integrated into national power systems. This focus captures whether renewable energy has moved beyond pilot projects and announcements into reliable, system-level deployment.

The research finds strong evidence of a stable long-run relationship between renewable energy security and macroeconomic conditions across MENA countries. Deviations from this equilibrium do occur during economic shocks, but the system shows a meaningful capacity to adjust. Approximately 42 percent of any short-term deviation from the long-run path is corrected within a year, indicating a moderate but significant adjustment speed. This suggests that while macroeconomic shocks disrupt renewable deployment, the underlying relationship between stability and energy transition remains intact.

The study’s findings challenge the assumption that renewable energy deployment in MENA is primarily constrained by institutional inertia or political resistance. Instead, they point to economic fundamentals as a critical bottleneck. Countries with abundant renewable resources but unstable macroeconomic environments struggle to convert potential into actual energy security. Conversely, those that maintain price stability and predictable fiscal frameworks are better positioned to sustain renewable growth, even amid global uncertainty.

The research links energy transition to key economic policy objectives. Monetary policy aimed at price stability becomes not just a macroeconomic goal but an energy security tool. Fiscal discipline and counter-cyclical spending emerge as mechanisms to protect long-term energy investments from short-term economic shocks.

The study also highlights the risks of stop-and-go policy approaches. Inconsistent fiscal commitment, particularly during downturns, can derail renewable momentum and increase long-term costs. The findings suggest that insulating renewable energy investment from political and economic cycles may be essential for achieving durable energy transitions in the region.

FIRST PUBLISHED ON: Devdiscourse
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Cities must embrace strategic foresight and adaptive governance

Cities must embrace strategic foresight and adaptive governance

Feb 7, 2026

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In the age of polycrisis, cities must embrace strategic foresight and adaptive governance

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Consultancy-me.com
 06 February 2026
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Cities of all sizes across the Middle East are facing a mounting array of pressures – and, increasingly, outright crises. To navigate this new era, policymakers must go beyond just mitigating risk and adopt a new-age approach centred on strategic foresight and adaptive governance. That is according to a new vision paper from the World Governments Summit and Roland Berger.

The report paints a vivid picture of the accelerating pace of change confronting city leaders. “In today’s faster and ever-more interconnected world, characterised by the accelerated movement of people, goods and ideas, fragile global supply chains, instant communication and rapid flows of capital, the intensity of crises is amplified.”

Policymakers are increasingly required to manage multiple crises simultaneously, with risks often overlapping and reinforcing one another – a phenomenon generally known as a ‘polycrisis’.

For cities, this shift is particularly significant. Urban centres play a central role in economic activity, social cohesion and everyday life, while also being disproportionately exposed to systemic shocks, emphasises Roland Berger partner Mohamad Yamout. “Cities are facing an era defined by polycrisis: cascading, overlapping risks that increasingly test public services, infrastructure and institutional capacity.”

The report points, for example, to the cascading effects of a health emergency. “A health crisis can trigger an economic collapse, which in turn fuels political instability, undermines public trust and erodes social cohesion. While these effects are visible at regional or national levels, they are felt most acutely where human activity is most concentrated – in cities.”

In this polycrisis era, the report argues, traditional models of resilience – largely focused on recovery after shocks – are no longer sufficient. Cities must instead move beyond conventional resilience-based risk mitigation and embed forward-looking foresight into governance, planning and policymaking.

The Urban Foresight & Adaptability Framework

So how can cities achieve this shift? To provide guidance on the matter, the researchers developed a comprehensive framework designed to help cities across the Middle East anticipate, adapt to and actively shape the future amid converging and interdependent crises.

The framework calls for institutionalised urban foresight and adaptive governance, achieved by embedding scenario planning and continuous adjustment into day-to-day decision-making. “By embedding foresight into every layer of governance, cities can turn crisis into opportunity and set new global benchmarks for adaptability – moving from reactive crisis management towards proactive, future-oriented development,” Yamout noted.

At the heart of the ‘Urban Foresight & Adaptability Framework’ are five-pillars:

In the age of polycrisis, cities must embrace strategic foresight and adaptive governance

Source: World Government Summit, Roland Berger

Adaptive Infrastructure & Urban Systems
Designing modular, climate-resilient and smart infrastructure supported by digital twins, real-time monitoring and predictive analytics.

Strategic Foresight & Governance Agility
Establishing foresight units, applying scenario planning and regulatory sandboxes, and strengthening cross-sector coordination to enable faster, more coherent responses to emerging risks.

Environmental Regeneration & Resource Foresight
Moving beyond mitigation toward regeneration through climate-risk modelling, renewable energy, nature-based solutions, circular economy measures and biodiversity-led planning.

Human & Social Well-Being
Prioritizing preventive health, lifelong learning, social inclusion and civic engagement to build cohesive, skilled communities capable of adapting to disruption.

Digital Intelligence & Innovation Ecosystems
Leveraging open data, AI, innovation hubs and strong cybersecurity to create cities that sense change in real time and act on it responsibly.

5 starting points to embed foresight in government

Source: World Government Summit, Roland Berger

Examples from the region

The research spotlights several cities that are already demonstrating many of the success criteria outlined in the Urban Foresight & Adaptability Framework, including Dubai, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha.

In these cities, the authors note, “vision-led change and a technology-first mindset have already taken root”.

They point to major investments in transport networks, smart districts, renewable energy and digital government platforms, alongside flagship initiatives such as Green Riyadh, Masdar City, Dubai’s Clean Energy Strategy and Smart Qatar. Together, these initiatives demonstrate how infrastructure, environmental priorities and technology can be integrated at scale to build long-term urban adaptability.

Through these insights and the accompanying framework, the World Governments Summit and Roland Berger aim to enable policymakers across the Middle East to learn from these examples and apply the lessons to their own contexts – ultimately helping cities become more future-proof, resilient and economically sustainable places to live and work.

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