With Chinese investment, Egypt turns to Solar Panel Manufacturing

With Chinese investment, Egypt turns to Solar Panel Manufacturing

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Vietnam on the Nile? With Chinese investment, Egypt turns to Solar Panel Manufacturing

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Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – A new $210 million facility is being built in Egypt to produce 4 gigwatts of solar components annually.

These numbers are not world shaking, but this development is. Egypt has enormous industrial potential. It has as many as 2.5 million workers in various sectors of the textile industry and 33 million over all, and the country’s literacy rate is now on the order of 75%. Literate workers are valuable because they are able to read and follow instructions.

If Egypt becomes a hub for producing solar cells, panels and arrays, it could be an engine for economic growth and also for the production of inexpensive energy in the country, which also acts as a fillip to economic growth.

Green Building Africa reports that “The $210 million Atum Solar project is being developed in the TEDA industrial zone in Sokhna and will have an annual production capacity of 2 GW of solar cells and 2 GW of solar modules.” The investors include JA Solar, a Chinese solar panel manufacturer, as well as concerns in the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt itself. The UAE and Bahrain have substantial investment capital lying about from oil sales, but small domestic populations and lack what economists call absorptive capacity. Egypt is a promising investment field for them as a fellow Arab country with a big workforce.

The plant will create over 800 direct jobs, and likely many more indirect ones.

The solar cells will be exported to the United States. Note that this facility is a way for JA Solar to sidestep the stiff US tariffs on Chinese solar cells, since the units will come from Egypt. The panels will be sold inside Egypt and also to other African countries.

The energy consultancy Ember reported last summer that there are now the first signs of large-scale African adoption of solar panels.

I commented about a year ago on a report that Sweden’s Sunshine Pro has partnered with Egyptian institutions to establish a solar panel manufacturing facility with a capacity to produce 1 gigawatt of solar panels annually.

Egypt is, of course, creating large solar farms for electricity generation, and so will have a use for these domestically produced panels. By the start of 2024, the Egyptians had installed 1.8 gigawatts of solar, most of it at the Benban Solar Park some 400 miles south of Cairo in the Aswan Governorate. It now, at the beginning of 2026, has about 2.8 gigawatts of solar capacity, with plans for a rapid build out the rest of this year. Cairo is hoping for 12 gigawatts of sustainables by the end of 2026.

As Chinese labor costs have risen, Chinese companies have been moving to other countries for some manufacturing purposes, benefiting from their cheaper labor costs. It is even government policy, with the slogan “Go out!” attached to it. Since China is the preeminent leader in greentech, it is natural that some of the expansion of Chinese investments in factories abroad would be in sustainables.

One advantage for Chinese firms of investing in a facility abroad is that they can often lower their tariff costs. For instance, the African Union has low tariffs for member states, so a factory that is partially Chinese-owned established in an African country can export cheaply throughout the continent. That role seems to be envisioned for the panels produced at the Atum plant, while the solar cells (the basic component of the panels) will be sent to the US.

If Egyptians manage their affairs well, they could become the Vietnam of the Middle East with regard to solar panel production. Vietnam now produces 18 gigawatts of solar panels annually and is the fourth-largest panel exporter, having 12% of the world market, up from almost nothing a decade ago.

The race for renewables in the Middle East and North Africa

The race for renewables in the Middle East and North Africa

Dramatic sunset view of the iconic Giza Pyramids in Egypt, highlighting their ancient architecture.  By Thais Cordeiro via Pexels

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The race for renewables in the Middle East and North Africa

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By Ellen Clarke, Research Analyst for the Middle East Programme

Behind the rush in the MENA region to develop renewable-energy capacity is the continued exploitation of fossil fuels to achieve economic growth amid worsening climate pressures on agriculture and water. Economic security, not reduction of emissions, is at the core of this expansion of states’ energy supplies.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is finally waking up to the imperative of renewable energy. Although the region has lagged behind the rest of the world in developing its infrastructure, surging investments in renewables will see over four times the existing capacity installed in the MENA by 2030. Nevertheless, not all countries are equally equipped to diversify and secure their energy supply to meet the soaring demand driven by rising temperatures. While Saudi Arabia has set itself the target of adding 20 gigawatts (GW) of renewable-energy capacity annually and of reaching 130 GW by 2030, other countries beset by conflict, political instability, or corruption are struggling to keep pace and adapt to climate pressures.

The economic incentives behind renewable-energy strategies

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has increased its forecast for renewable-capacity growth in the MENA by 25% over the next five years, the largest regional upgrade globally. But the year-to-year uptick in projects reflects incentives for diversification that go beyond carbon-emission concerns. The effects of climate change on MENA soil and water systems pose an acute threat to the region’s agriculture, food security, and, therefore, economies. In this context, renewables are better seen as an adaptation tool to provide the additional energy security needed to maintain agricultural production and water supplies, rather than as a system-wide energy transition away from polluting fuels.

Saudi Arabia’s ambition to finance gigawatt-scale scale renewable projects to achieve 50% renewable-energy generation by 2030 exemplifies the wider petrostate strategy of using revenues from fossil-fuel exports to secure domestic energy supply for future growth. The success of its broader technology-driven modernisation strategy, including the ambitious development of energy- and water-intensive data centres, is underpinned by energy expansion. Renewable investments are necessary to prevent potential resource constraints on other critical sectors as a consequence of this modernisation, such as Saudi Arabia’s efforts to create a self-sufficient agri-food industry. Current rates of worsening water scarcity anticipate the kingdom will face a 65% reduction in agricultural production from today’s levels by 2050, the most significant projected losses in the region, followed by Yemen (35%) and Syria (13%). As of 2023, public energy was used for irrigation in 44.7% of Saudi Arabia’s agricultural land, 98% of which was powered by water-intensive diesel. In addition to other technological industrial advancements, a shift towards renewable-powered groundwater pumping, desalination, or wastewater treatment, as well as still-necessary large-scale food imports, will all require extensive funding. Maximising hydrocarbon export revenue by reducing domestic energy usage is a key component of Saudi Arabia’s strategic growth.
As a non-hydrocarbon economy and net energy importer, Morocco’s Green Generation 2020-2030 initiative is rooted in an understanding of the urgent economic vulnerabilities of the food–water–energy nexus. Given that the agricultural sector employs roughly 40% of the country’s workforce, Morocco’s nearly 24 GW renewable-energy development pipeline sits alongside a US$45 billion National Water Plan 2020–-2050 to ensure food-system resilience through renewable-powered desalination plants. Moreover, the National Office of Electricity and Drinking Water has sought to integrate its fertiliser-manufacturing value chain with green hydrogen production and expand renewable-pumped hydropower storage, decreasing its vulnerability to supply-chain volatility.

Political obstacles to renewables in the region

For others in the region, conflict, political instability, and financial mismanagement have prevented foreign investment and the development of utility-scale renewable energy projects. In Iraq, the severe summer temperatures directly resulting from global warming, and the accompanying need for air-conditioning, regularly cause complete grid failure. Yet corruptionprotracted negotiations and lack of political will have prevented financial investment into renewable-energy projects and grid storage. In Lebanon, finding investors for the Akkar wind farms has also been obstructed for years due to debt defaults and a lack of economic reform. To cope with daily power shortages, household installations of off-grid, rooftop solar panels have proliferated.
Egypt has made material steps to overcome such barriers, as it also deals with temperature-induced blackouts. Subsidy reforms and foreign-debt repayments have strengthened its exchange rate and begun to rehabilitate Egypt’s investor climate, prompting a series of announcements over the last year regarding renewable-energy expansion and grid rehabilitation. But for other countries, ongoing violence derails the development of renewables despite available international funding. Palestinian renewable-energy projects have long been undermined by Israel’s systematic denial of infrastructure permits in the West Bank in favour of illegal settlements. As Israel is geographically limited in developing sufficient landmass of its own for energy diversification at scale, it has gone as far as destroying and confiscating solar panels (part of projects funded by the European Union) in Area C. This is the only land available for Palestinian utility infrastructure, and thereby sustains Palestinian dependency on Israeli gas.

Supply-chain threats to renewable-energy security

The race to develop renewables infrastructure, including necessary power-grid rehabilitation and battery technologies, is now under pressure from rapidly depleting resources of required critical minerals within the supply chain, such as copper and lithium. The vulnerability of the MENA’s slow start to diversification contrasts with China’s first-mover advantage, with Chinese-dominated value chains now factored into national renewable-energy-development strategies in the region. China is the largest manufacturer and market for renewables, and will account for up to 60% of global deployment over the next ten years. Critically, China is the dominant refiner for 19 out of 20 energy-related strategic minerals, with an average market share of around 70%. Given the IEA estimates that, even in the highest production scenarios, the world will face a 30% supply shortfall for copper by 2035 if all national climate commitments are met, states with structural barriers to diversification risk being left behind.
Tightening Chinese export controls, including on the use of renewable technology, is leading states with sufficient capital to invest in localising segments of their value chains. Essential technologies for baseload electricity supply, such as the mega-capacity battery energy-storage systems (BESS) at Egypt’s Red Sea wind farm and Abydos II solar plants, are predominantly electrochemical, using lithium. In December 2024, Saudi Arabia announced its first successful extraction from oilfield brine, with plans to begin producing lithium by 2027. Similarly, multiple countries in the region are in severe need of electrical-grid rehabilitation. Jordan had implemented a ban on new utility-scale renewable-energy developments between 2019 and 2024 due to grid limitations. Since lifting the ban, the government has faced heightened pressure to restart mining limited copper reserves within a protected nature reserve, despite the country’s severe water scarcity and issues of wastewater pollution.

The vicious cycle of continued fossil-fuel dependency

The underlying approach to developing renewable-energy capacity in the region is ultimately geopolitical and economic, not environmental. With over 30% of the world’s oil supplied by the region, energy has always determined the geopolitical leverage, regional influence, and political economy of MENA states. They are set to protect this global posture, as reflected by the energy-security strategies set out in the 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), held in November. Although supply chain security was high on the conference’s agenda, MENA states resisted the phasing out of fossil fuels. Natural gas and oil still comprised 90% of electricity generation in the MENA in 2024. Alongside 50% growth in forecasted electricity demand by 2035, the rapid expansion of renewable-energy capacity in the region and proportional electricity-generation targets do not necessarily equal a reduction in fossil-fuel production.
The race to diversify energy is generating unsustainable pressure on the supply chains of critical minerals. These rates of resource consumption risk leaving behind states in the region with insufficient political and financial capital to invest in future-proof energy infrastructure. Depleted water and food systems, resulting from continued dependency on fossil fuels, will exacerbate energy demand and limit the capacity of MENA economies to adapt to an increasingly uninhabitable region. Although scaling renewable-energy capacity is necessary, it will be insufficient without a shift in focus towards mitigation and a full energy transition to exit this vicious cycle.
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Have we Reached Peak Fossil Fuels?

Have we Reached Peak Fossil Fuels?

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Have we Reached Peak Fossil Fuels? Wind & Solar met all New Energy Demand in Q1-Q3 ’25

Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – Richard Black and other analysts at the Ember energy consultancy find that all new electricity demand in the first three quarters of 2025 was met by solar and wind, mainly solar. That statistic requires us to conclude that there was no growth in fossil fuels globally during that period. Ember anticipates that Q4 will show the same result.

Fossil fuel growth hasn’t been flat in any year since the COVID pandemic hit in 2020, when the world’s economy shrank 3% to 3.4%. Our current year, 2025, however, has seen growth. Admittedly it is weak growth, projected at 2.3% by the World Bank, largely because of Trump tariffs and the president’s unpredictable and vacillating economic decisions, which have introduced severe uncertainty.

Still, if electricity demand kept pace with economic growth and if fossil fuels were still the primary means of generating electricity, then we should have seen a 2.3% growth rate in coal and fossil gas. We’re not seeing that. They are flat.

They are flat because solar and wind, but mainly solar, have taken up all the air in this room.

Ember finds that solar power-generating capacity grew Q1-Q3 ’25 by an unprecedented 31% over the same three quarters in 2024. In absolute terms, it grew by a whopping 498 Terawatt hours. Solar has never before in history grown that fast and that much. Solar panels around the world made more electricity in the first three quarters of this year than they did in all of 2024.

Wind power generating capacity also grew this year by 7.6% over the same three quarters in 2024, or 137 Terawatt hours. That is, wind grew three times more than the economy as a whole did.

In the first three quarters of 2025, electricity demand grew worldwide by 603 terawatt hours, some 2.7%.

Since total wind and solar growth equaled 603 Terawatt hours Q1-Q3 of this year, solar and wind met all of it with a little left over to spare.

There was no demand for new fossil fuel power generation. None. Nada. Zilch. Rien. Nichts.

Hence, peak fossil fuels.

The decline in the use of fossil fuels was most pronounced in China and India, Asia’s great powers. Europe resorted to fossil fuels where hydroelectric generation fell or winds weren’t strong. Only in the US was there still a healthy appetite for dirty energy.

Of course, 2025 is special because former President Joe Biden’s pro-renewables energy policies were still in effect in the US, and those have been knee-capped by the Republican budget bill and by President Trump’s refusal to spend money appropriated and dedicated to these purposes. Solar and wind in the United States may only grow at half the rate earlier projected in 2026-2030 because of these pro-carbon, earth-destroying policies.

Still, the US only generates 15% of the world’s electricity and if China, India and Europe, not to mention the Global South, stick to their guns on their commitment to renewables, peak fossil fuels are still in our near future even if ExxonMobil — I mean the Republican Party — there, I’ve been redundant — even if they put that milestone off a tiny bit.

The other thing to say is that the cost of solar electricity generation is falling rapidly. It is harder for coal and gas to compete with it in 2025 than it had been in 2019. It will be still harder in the coming years.

Around the world, Solar Tech Online points out, 4/5s of renewable energy installations make electricity more cheaply than coal and gas. Globally, solar photovoltaic power costs 4.4 cents per kilowatt-hour. That is the cost to keep 10 hundred-watt light bulbs burning for an hour. Onshore wind can keep the ten hundred-watt light bulbs in your house burning for an hour for only 3.3 cents.

And in some climes, these renewables are even less expensive. In the Middle East, solar panels can make electricity for 2.4 cents per kilowatt hour. That is dirt cheap.

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Fossil fuels? They cost on average 10 cents per kilowatt hour. Why would you pay that? If someone offered you a nice piece of clothing for $100, but you found you could get the same item for $44 or even $33 elsewhere, would you be pigheaded and demand to pay the $100? That is how the Republican Party is acting, which helps explain why the economy crashes every time Americans go crazy and elect them.

So in the world of energy there were two reasons for preferring fossil fuels. One was intermittency. The wind doesn’t blow all the time, and the sun doesn’t shine at night. That problem has been solved, as in California, by battery storage, which has plummeted in price. Solar plus battery and wind plus battery are regularly providing California with all or most of its electricity for most days each year.

Renewables are the future, because they will go on declining in price and rising in efficiency. Solar Tech Online gives these scientific estimates:

Solar PV: Additional 60% cost reduction by 2060
Onshore Wind: 42% further reduction expected by 2060
Battery Storage: 50-70% cost decline anticipated by 2030

My title plays on the notion of “peak oil,” which the International Energy Agency predicts will be reached in 2030. In some countries, like China, 2025 may be the year of peak oil. That is, China will never again use as much petroleum as it does this year, and the amount used will decline steadily in the coming years. In the early twenty-first century there were worries about running out of petroleum. Those were always silly, since the world’s petroleum reserves are vast– though irrational US economic sanctions do put some of those fields off the world market. A quarter way into the present century, a new reason for peak oil has emerged, in the form of electric vehicles. Most petroleum is used for transportation. A tiny bit is used for power generation, and demand for it in that capacity is plummeting because of the rise of wind and solar farms. Peak oil is coming not because of its paucity but because it is unnecessarily expensive and is a planet-wrecking source of deadly greenhouse gases.

The year 2025 may only be a harbinger of peak fossil fuels and demand for them may be made artificially to rise by the Trump administration again next year. But dirty energy is facing a price tsunami from competitors that will only strengthen over time, and it is facing a moral reckoning as the disastrous effects of burning fossil fuels become more and more apparent to the public. Already, the cost of climate disasters in 2025 is projected at $145 billion by the World Economic Forum. These catastrophes are becoming more intense, more destructive and more costly, and there are more of them every year because of burning fossil fuels and putting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

America’s dirty-energy aristocracy should read about what happened to the aristocrats in France once the ordinary folk, the ones whose pants didn’t even have cuffs, made a revolution because they were tired of policies that made them poor and miserable.

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About the Author

Juan Cole is the founder and chief editor of Informed Comment. He is Richard P. Mitchell Professor of History at the University of Michigan He is author of, among many other books, Muhammad: Prophet of Peace amid the Clash of Empires and The Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam. Follow him on Twitter at @jricole or the Informed Comment Facebook Page

The “age of electricity” is here

The “age of electricity” is here

The “age of electricity” is here

Wind Europe

24 November 2025

The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2025 confirms that electricity is quickly becoming the backbone of the global energy system. Electricity demand is soaring. Renewables are continuing to rise globally. But Governments are too slow in delivering the infrastructure needed to electrify industry, mobility and heating. And they need to address new supply chain risks.

This month the International Energy Agency (IEA) published its World Energy Outlook 2025 in which it claims that the world has entered the “age of electricity”.

The IEA estimates that electricity demand will rise by 40–50% by 2035, driven by electrified industry, transport, digitalisation and heating. Investment in electricity supply and electrification already accounts for half of today’s global energy investment. Global investment in data centres is expected to reach $580 billion in 2025.

To meet this electricity demand, renewables – wind and solar in particular – will continue to rise globally, the IEA’s Outlook states. Renewables are the fastest-growing energy source in all scenarios presented in the World Energy Outlook.

More investments in grids and storage required

The message from this year’s World Energy Outlook is clear. Europe must accelerate wind energy deployment and build electricity grids that can match this buildout.

Investments in electricity generation have charged ahead by almost 70% since 2015. But annual grid spending has risen at less than half that pace. Electricity connections and storage are lagging. This creates grid congestion, higher electricity prices and curtailed renewables output.

Without faster permitting and investment in infrastructure, Europe will fall behind in the “age of electricity”. It will lose its position as technology leader in clean tech. And it will put its economic competitiveness at risk, as China is pushing ahead, electrifying their economies. The “age of electricity” in short: the future is electric – and renewables are leading the charge.

Energy security depends on the grid. That’s the message from COP30, the IEA’s World Energy Outlook – and from anyone who wants cheaper, cleaner energy. The European Commission is set to present its EU Grids Package on 10 December to fix bottlenecks in Europe’s electricity system. What should it do?

  • Align grid planning with energy policy. Make sure investments happen.
  • Push anticipatory investments. The grid must be ready for new renewables.
  • Filter out speculative connection requests. Prioritise strategic projects.
  • Boost EU funding and EIB financing. It’s cheaper than paying for congestion.
  • Incentivise optimisation of existing grids. Dynamic line rating can unlock capacity.
  • Prioritise connections for combined wind, solar and storage projects.
  • Drive a regional approach with more cross-border interconnections.
  • Speed up permitting. Treat grids as overriding public interest – but keep ambitious wind deadlines.
  • Improve procurement. Long-term contracts and clear goals cut costs.
  • Support grid equipment manufacturing. Europe needs more transformer factories. Follow the wind supply chain model.

This will help unlock GW of wind energy currently waiting for their grid connection permits. Now Member States will have to move fast to implement it.

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Feature image – X

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Why Fossil Fuels Are Having Such A Hard Time

Why Fossil Fuels Are Having Such A Hard Time

Why Fossil Fuels Are Having Such A Hard Time Competing With Renewables

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The 3 reasons fossil fuels have such a hard time competing are:

  1. It keeps getting harder to find and extract fossil fuels.
  2. Renewable technology lowers costs far faster than technology improves fossil fuel cost due to Wright’s law.
  3. People don’t like the negative effects of fossil fuels — namely, pollution and carbon impact — so they discourage its use.

When All The Easy To Find And Extract Fossil Fuels Are Gone, Things Get Expensive

It’s getting harder to find oil, gas, and coal since we already got the easy stuff. I’ve been tracking the energy shift for years now, and it’s fascinating how the old guard of fossil fuels is stumbling under its own weight. You see, the easy wins, like those shallow onshore oil fields, are long gone, picked clean decades ago. Now, companies are chasing the tough stuff: ultra-deep offshore drills plunging over 3 kilometers, icy Arctic frontiers, and tricky shale plays that scream for cutting-edge tech. Think about it — the cost to discover a barrel of oil? It skyrocketed from $1.18 in 2001 to more than $3 by 2009, thanks to fancier seismic gear, beefed-up rigs, and pricier steel. And don’t get me started on the human side: these ops need elite crews, jacking up risks and bills even higher.

This research from Rystad Energy explains how the breakeven price of oil is higher in the new oil fields vs the sources we discovered years ago. Then there’s the geopolitical drama — Russia and Venezuela cranking up taxes and rewriting deals, spooking investors with that uncertainty tax. Fast-forward to today: inflation and supply snarls have nudged breakeven prices for new projects up 5% yearly, hitting $47 a barrel overall, with oil sands lagging at $57. As these finite reserves dwindle, it’s no surprise the tide’s turning. Without breakthroughs, fossil crunches will keep prices volatile, but hey, that’s our cue to accelerate the green revolution.

Wright’s Law Favors Renewables

Fossil technology continues to improve its efficiency (for example, fracking has allowed us to greatly increase oil and gas production in the US). However, there’s important nuance here. Wright’s Law is similar to the famous Moore’s Law of semiconductor progress, which has been pretty accurate for almost 60 years at predicting that the number of semiconductors (and therefore computing power) doubles every 2 years. Wright’s Law is more general, because it predicts price declines for all mass produced products. Wright’s Law states that the price of production for a given product will go down a fixed amount (different for different products) every time the cumulative number of units doubles. The insight this gives you is that costs go down in products that are relatively new and early in their production ramp. Fossil production doesn’t double nearly as quickly as wind, solar, and batteries, so costs don’t drop nearly as quickly.

People Don’t Like The Negative Effects Of Using Fossil Fuels

People around the world don’t like fossil pollution (carbon and traditional emissions), so fossil fuels have political headwinds (with the exception being the Trump administration). The world’s patience with fossil fuels’ dirty tricks, spewing CO2 and all those nasty traditional pollutants into our skies, is wearing thinner than a worn-out oil filter. From bustling European capitals to sun-soaked Pacific islands vanishing under rising seas, folks are fed up, demanding cleaner air and a stabler climate that doesn’t jack up insurance bills or scorch harvests. That’s fueling a tidal wave of political pushback: think bold COP pledges to slash oil, gas, and coal production that world leaders swore to in 2023 but are hilariously dragging their feet on, or national plans that straight-up sabotage 1.5°C goals. Voters everywhere, even across partisan lines, are cheering policies to curb carbon and pivot to renewables — 97% want fossil-free power grids in the next decade.

But here’s the wildcard: while the globe tightens the screws, the Trump administration’s firing up the drill bits, hell-bent on unleashing more natural gas, oil, and coal to “restore prosperity,” dismantling Biden-era climate wins and arguing federal law doesn’t even touch greenhouse gases. It’s a stark outlier in this green-leaning storm, but even that pro-fossil fervor can’t drown out the roar for a renewables revolution that’s already cheaper and smarter.

Conclusion

Solar and battery prices from ourworldindata.org, wind prices from nrl.gov, Inflation data from bls.gov, formatted by Grok 4 Fast

So, in summary, while renewables just get cheaper and cheaper every year, fossil fuels get cheaper when technology improves but get more expensive as it gets harder to find them. In addition, fossil fuels are very susceptible to extreme price volatility due to conflicts between nations. The positive and negative forces are fairly balanced and have caused inflation adjusted fossil fuel prices over the last 50 years to be relatively stable (even though they show a lot of volatility in the short term). If you go back further in time, 100 years, fossil fuels were the new technology and they did get a lot less expensive in that time period.

Fuel Price Data from eia.gov and Inflation data from bls.gov, formatted by Grok 4 Fast

So, fossil fuels get less cost competitive as people get more annoyed with their pollution. Of course, fossil fuels still produce massive revenues and profits, so that drives massive political contributions and propaganda campaigns. These slow the transition (but can’t stop it) from fossil fuels to renewables.

Disclosure: I am a shareholder in Tesla [TSLA], BYD [BYDDY], and XPeng [XPEV]. But I offer no investment advice of any sort here.