3 February 2026 12:45 pm
Global population living with extreme heat expected to double by 2050

Global population living with extreme heat expected to double by 2050

Feb 2, 2026

A vast aerial view of a densely populated urban residential area with diverse building types. By Ludvig Hedenborg via pexels

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Global population living with extreme heat expected to double by 2050

by University of Oxford

edited by Gaby Clark, reviewed by Robert Egan

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Global population living with extreme heat to double by 2050

Global mean HDDs for three global warming scenarios. Credit: Nature Sustainability (2026). DOI:10.1038/s41893-025-01754-y

A new University of Oxford study finds that almost half of the global population (3.79 billion) will be living with extreme heat by 2050 if the world reaches 2.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels—a scenario that climate scientists see as increasingly likely.

Most of the impacts will be felt early on as the world passes the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement, the authors warn. In 2010, 23% of the world’s population lived with extreme heat, and this is set to grow to 41% over the next decades.

Regions and populations most at risk

Published in Nature Sustainability, the findings have grave implications for humanity. The Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos, and Brazil are predicted to see the most significant increases in dangerously hot temperatures, while the largest affected populations will be in India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Philippines.

Countries with colder climates will see a much larger relative change in uncomfortably hot days, more than doubling in some cases.

Compared with the 2006–2016 period, when the global mean temperature increase reached 1°C over pre-industrial levels, the study finds that warming to 2°C would lead to a doubling in Austria and Canada, 150% in the UK, Sweden, Finland, 200% in Norway, and a 230% increase in Ireland.

Infrastructure and adaptation challenges

Given that the built environment and infrastructure in these countries are predominantly designed for cold conditions, even a moderate increase in temperature is likely to have disproportionately severe impacts compared with regions that have greater resources, adaptive capacity, and embodied capital to manage heat.

Lead author, Dr. Jesus Lizana, Associate Professor in Engineering Science, said, “Our study shows most of the changes in cooling and heating demand occur before reaching the 1.5ºC threshold, which will require significant adaptation measures to be implemented early on. For example, many homes may need air conditioning to be installed in the next five years, but temperatures will continue to rise long after that if we hit 2.0 of global warming.

“To achieve the global goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, we must decarbonize the building sector while developing more effective and resilient adaptation strategies.”

Dr. Radhika Khosla, Associate Professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and leader of the Oxford Martin Future of Cooling Programme, added, “Our findings should be a wake-up call. Overshooting 1.5°C of warming will have an unprecedented impact on everything from education and health to migration and farming. Net zero sustainable development remains the only established path to reversing this trend for ever hotter days. It is imperative politicians regain the initiative towards it.”

Energy demand and new climate data

The projected increase in extreme heat will also lead to a significant rise in energy demand for cooling systems and corresponding emissions, while demand for heating in countries like Canada and Switzerland will decrease.

The study also includes an open-source dataset of global heating and cooling demand, comprising 30 global maps at ≈60km resolution that capture climate intensity in “cooling degree days” and “heating degree days” worldwide. This dataset provides a strong foundation for incorporating accessible climate data into sustainability planning and development policy.

Publication details

Lizana, J. et al, Global gridded dataset of heating and cooling degree days under climate change scenarios. Nature Sustainability (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01754-y www.nature.com/articles/s41893-025-01754-y

Journal information: Nature Sustainability

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Tourism offers a golden opportunity for MENA countries

Tourism offers a golden opportunity for MENA countries

Jan 31, 2026

What Comes After 2030?

What Comes After 2030?

Jan 29, 2026

what, creator, we, have, creator, creator, creator, creator, creator by einoblixt via pixabay

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What Comes After 2030? Contribution of Private Sector to the SDG Agenda

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IISD

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • A webinar, organized by the Center for Responsible Business and Leadership at Católica Lisbon, discussed the role of the private sector in driving SDG progress and shaping a post-2030 sustainable development framework in a way that is meaningful for companies and societies.
  • Participants highlighted that to achieve this, sustainability cannot be treated as optional, but rather as a business imperative.
  • Only through collaborative governance, and a coherent, integrated policy framework is it possible to move at the necessary pace and turn ambition into action.

As the deadline for the SDGs draws nearer, many ask what comes after 2030. A webinar, organized by the Center for Responsible Business and Leadership at Católica Lisbon, in partnership with the UN Global Compact Network Portugal, explored the contribution of the private sector to shaping the future of the SDG agenda.

The webinar was the second in a series themed, ‘What Comes After 2030? The Future of the SDG Agenda.’ Held in early January 2026, it brought together business leaders and industry representatives from the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) and Nestlé to explore how companies can accelerate change and act as catalysts for systemic transformation beyond 2030.

Discussions highlighted the important role businesses play in the innovation sphere and their capacity to extend across the supply chain, reaching multiple sectors and geographies. Participants agreed that while many businesses operate under significant pressure points, such as climate change and breached planetary boundaries, there are opportunities innovation can bring to scale solutions and drive transformation needed to deliver on the SDGs up to 2030 and beyond.

However, speakers emphasized, for this to happen, sustainability cannot be seen as optional, but rather as a business imperative. Only through collaborative governance and a coherent, integrated policy framework is it possible to move at the necessary pace and turn ambition into action.

Participants also noted it is essential to look at the broader interconnected system in which businesses operate, at the intersection of climate, nature, and people. They acknowledged that addressing these themes together will enable businesses to pursue climate neutrality while simultaneously supporting communities.

At the same time, reflecting on what has worked in the current framework, what didn’t, and the lessons learned can provide valuable insights for the future. Speakers underscored that establishing a common language, across different constituencies, including businesses and governments, is key as differences in terminologies often hinder coherence and alignment. A shared language, they said, can help to better understand what the shared challenge is, identify barriers, and support a coordinated and effective implementation.

Private sector representatives shared experiences on how businesses are focusing on sustainability in the five years left to 2030, including by enabling a shift to regenerative agriculture through technical support and trainings for farmers, as well as finance and data collection.

In conclusion, speakers noted that while it is difficult to think long-term, especially in the current geopolitical climate, it is important to recognize the progress achieved over the ten years of the SDG agenda, including in areas such as the energy transition, scientific advancements, and renewables. They emphasized that the “ethos of sustainability” has become increasingly embedded in the economy and among citizens, as demonstrated by shifts in consumption patterns and behaviors.

Participants agreed that going forward, the interaction between technology, innovation, and entrepreneurship will be key in driving higher impact in areas such as education, health, and technology. They called for focus on collaborative governance, including citizen and business engagement, to ensure progress on the 2030 Agenda and beyond amid global challenges and transformations.

Held last year, the first webinar of the series focused on the broader landscape of the post-2030 Agenda and the future of the SDGs. The main takeaway was that “2030 should not mark the end of the agenda – it should mark the beginning of its reinvention.” At the same time, the webinar emphasized the importance of looking at the sustainable development agenda in a more dynamic way and put effort into implementation and cross-sectoral partnerships.

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Global framework to safeguard world’s most vulnerable regions

Global framework to safeguard world’s most vulnerable regions

Jan 28, 2026

A man carries water across a parched landscape in Sagaing, revealing drought impact. By Pyae Phyo Aung via pexels

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New study proposes global framework to safeguard world’s most vulnerable regions amid climate crisis

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Peer-Reviewed Publication

Ecosystem Health and Sustainability

EurokAlert!

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Major socio-environmental processes in ecologically sensitive regions
image: Major socio-environmental processes in ecologically sensitive regions.  Ecologically sensitive regionsare those which are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and humanactivities, most significantly industrialization and urbanization, while theirecosystem services are low or reducedview more 

Credit: Yonglong Lu, Xiamen University

The paper “Prioritizing Sustainable Development of Ecologically Sensitive Regions” was published recently in Ecosystem Health and Sustainability – A Science Partner Journal. The innovative research calls for merging AI with indigenous knowledge and targeting “tipping point” ecosystems to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

A groundbreaking new study urges a global priority shift toward sustainable development in four types of ecologically sensitive regions, warning they are at imminent risk of catastrophic “tipping points” due to climate change and human pressure. The research, lauded by expert reviewers as “timely,” “innovative,” and “forward-looking,” proposes a novel integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with Indigenous knowledge and a unified scientific framework to prevent systemic collapse and guide equitable resilience.

Global Significance: Averting Cascading Crises

The study identifies four critical region types – plateau/alpine systems, resource-depleted regions, super-fast-growing cities, and island/coastal states – as disproportionately vulnerable. Despite their diverse geographies, they share a common trait: high sensitivity to shocks that can trigger irreversible damage with global consequences.

“These are not just local problems,” the study emphasizes. “The Tibetan Plateau’s melting glaciers threaten water security for billions across Asia. The collapse of a resource-depleted city can destabilize entire regions. Coastal overtopping can create climate refugees. Protecting these regions is a linchpin for global stability and achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to water (SDG 6), cities (SDG 11), climate action (SDG 13), life under water (SDG 14), and life on land (SDG 15).”

Theoretical and Methodological Innovation: A Unified Lens and a Novel Fusion

The study’s core innovation is its unified social-ecological systems (SES) analytical framework, which allows policymakers to analyze disparate regions – from the Arctic permafrost to megacities like Shenzhen – through the same lens of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This approach reveals how ecological fragility and social vulnerability intertwine to create systemic risk.

Its most pioneering proposal is the integration of AI-enhanced monitoring (using satellite data and IoT sensors) with Indigenous and local knowledge. While AI can detect large-scale environmental changes, local communities hold deep, place-based understanding of ecological rhythms and resilience strategies. The study argues that fusing these knowledge systems is essential for accurate early warning and culturally appropriate solutions.

“AI can spot a forest canopy change from orbit, but local knowledge can explain why it’s happening and what it means for the community,” the paper notes. “This synergy is the future of sustainability science.”

Implications for Global SDG Implementation: A Blueprint for Ethical Action

To translate science into action, the study makes concrete recommendations with profound implications for global SDG implementation:

1. Establish a Global Sensitivity Observatory Network: A proposed international network would standardize monitoring of these critical zones using the integrated AI/local knowledge model, providing real-time data for global assessments and local action.

2. Governance for Equity and Justice: The research strongly warns against a purely technological fix. It calls for adaptive governance that empowers local communities, resolves policy conflicts, and ensures long-term political and financial commitment. Success hinges on placing equity and environmental justice at the center of all interventions.

3. An Ethical Framework for Technology: The study directly addresses ethical pitfalls, advocating for clear policies on data sovereignty, the use of understandable “explainable AI,” and participatory design. It insists that communities must own their data and have the right to contest AI-driven decisions affecting their lives and lands.

4. Targeted, Resilient Development: By providing a clear typology of sensitive regions, the framework allows the international community to prioritize funding, technology transfer, and policy support to where it is most urgently needed, making SDG implementation more strategic and effective.

The anonymous reviewers unanimously praised the study’s ambition and relevance. They highlighted its “valuable synthesis” of interdisciplinary science and its “commendable” call for knowledge integration. It provides not just a warning, but an actionable roadmap. It argues that safeguarding the world’s most fragile socio-ecological systems is the ultimate test of our commitment to a sustainable and just global future.

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2026: Growth and tech ambitions to the fore

2026: Growth and tech ambitions to the fore

Jan 28, 2026

High angle view of the word ‘FUTURE’ on a textured surface. Creative concept for motivation.By   Ann H via pexels

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2026: Growth and tech ambitions to the fore

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2026: Growth and tech ambitions to the foreA Prosperity Agenda for the Middle East session with Ahmed Kouchouk, Minister of Finance of Egypt; Dan Murphy, Anchor and Correspondent, CNBC, USA; Hisham Ezz-Al-Arab, Chief Executive Officer and Board Member, Commercial International Bank (CIB), Egypt; Hussain Sajwani, Founder and Chairman, DAMAC International, United Arab Emirates; Khalifa Abdullah Al-Ajeel AI-Askar, Minister of Commerce and Industry of Kuwait; Noor Ali Alkhulaif, Minister of Sustainable Development of Bahrain, Chief Executive, Bahrain Economic Development Board; at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, Davos 2026 in, Switzerland, on 22/1/2026 from 16:15 to 17:00 in the Congress Centre – Aspen 2 (Zone E), Stakeholder Dialogue. (mena economy). ©2026 World Economic Forum / Sandra Blaser

Leaders from across the Middle East focused on growth and delivering on the region’s unique potential at Davos 2026. Image: World Economic Forum

Chris Hamill-Stewart, Writer, Forum Agenda
WEF 27 january 2026
This article is part of: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting
  • Leaders at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026 presented their priorities, with a focus on building pathways for peace and delivering sustainable growth in the region.
  • The president of Egypt, the prime minister of Qatar, Morocco’s head of government, the president of Israel, the prime minister of the Palestinian National Authority and other political leaders spoke of the need for lasting peace in the region.
  • A significant contingent from the Gulf’s private sector attended the meeting, including from the region’s growing AI and data centre industry.

Geopolitics returned to centre stage at this year’s Annual Meeting in Davos. Greenland, Venezuela, the US, Europe, China, Iran and Gaza featured prominently in panels and coffee breaks alike.

Despite this backdrop of global and regional geopolitical headwinds, leaders from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) were keen to highlight the opportunities for growth in the region.

From Morocco to Saudi Arabia, representatives from the region highlighted the economic shifts in full swing across MENA – from global sports tournaments hosted in North Africa to the rapid buildout of AI infrastructure in the Gulf.

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Aspiration and confidence in North Africa

The tone of leaders from North Africa was one of confidence and aspiration: to move forward both as a collection of economies and as a region. They made clear their goal to seize on their advantages and carve a place for North Africa in a fast-changing global economy.

Egypt’s plan for growth

Egypt led its Davos messaging with a focus on private sector-driven growth.

“Our world today faces monumental challenges on a development path. It witnesses profound transformations in the patterns of international cooperation in addition to a rising role of innovative tools of technological progress, digital transformation and AI applications,” Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said.

Egypt, he said, is committed to cooperation and dialogue for growth – and he pointed to trade deals the country has signed in recent years as evidence of this strategy in action.

“Creating an attractive business environment for the private sector is a fundamental basis in the process of development and modernisation,” El-Sisi said.

Alongside the Egyptian president, the Forum’s Brende announced a Country Strategy Meeting in Egypt in autumn 2026 in collaboration with the Egyptian government.

Their tone was one of confidence and aspiration: to move forward both as a collection of economies and as a region. They made clear their goal to seize on their advantages and carve a place for North Africa in a fast-changing global economy.

Morocco’s infrastructure buildout

Morocco’s Head of Government spoke of the ambitions embodied in his country’s role as a host of the 2030 Fifa World Cup. That tournament, which is the world’s most-watched sporting event, comes hot on the heels of the country’s successful delivery of the African Cup of Nations, which drew millions of viewers worldwide.

The World Cup is expected to bring huge numbers of tourists to the country and has heralded a significant infrastructure investment drive, including $4 billion for upgrades to airports across the kingdom.

“The World Cup is only a milestone in a long-term strategy to transform the country with stadiums, digital networks, investment in culture, sustainable tourism, security and youth training,” Aziz Akhannouch, Head of Government for the Kingdom of Morocco, said.

AI’s role in delivering growth

Technology and the growth potential of AI were front and centre – particularly for regional countries with advanced energy industries.

Nurturing the right talent was a core part of this. “Higher education needs to start infusing AI. We do have that in the UAE. We’re starting to work with universities to provide students with skills and the necessary toolsets to advance,” Sarah bint Yousif Al Amiri, Minister of Education of the UAE, said, adding that they’re focusing on basic AI literacy before moving on to more advanced upskilling.

Representatives from Saudi Arabia laid out their ambitions in AI, including a focus on ensuring the benefits AI buildout are felt by all.

“Everybody wants to build the infrastructure for it, but the essence of AI’s power is it has to be accessible… Diffusion is not just within economies that have to compete, but I believe it has to be done globally,” Khalid Al-Falih, Minister of Investment for Saudi Arabia, said.

Speaking at the meeting’s closing remarks alongside Forum CEO Børge Brende, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim announced the Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting to be held 22-23 April 2026 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The meeting will focus on building common ground, reviving growth and transforming industry through innovation.

The Forum, together with the governments of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the UN Industrial Development Organization and others, also agreed to national deployments of the Lighthouse Operating System, which is a strategic, scaleable and replicable blueprint for manufacturing and supply chain transformation.

“AI is coming – there’s no two ways about it. We just have to be ready, be prepared and make the best possible pathway to it,” Khaldoon Khalifa Al Mubarak, CEO of Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala, which is investing billions in AI, said.

Leaders said they’re already seeing impact as they deploy AI technology in healthcare and logistics, and they zeroed in on their energy advantage as a competitive edge.

“We want to turn the energy sector to be more intelligent in terms of capitalizing on AI, and we have the applications and the talents and the infrastructure, and the most important thing in all of these is the data quality,” Amin Nasser, CEO of Aramco, said.

The Forum welcomed five new Centres into the Fourth Industrial Revolution Network during the meeting, including two within the UAE which will strengthen global collaboration on AI, quantum, robotics and space technologies.

A shared desire for peace

Politics was not entirely absent from discussions at Davos, with the future of Gaza staying a key topic.

“Gaza and Palestine is the core problem for the region, and if it is solved it will pay dividends for the entire region, not only for close neighbours like Egypt,” Ahmed Kouchouk, Minister of Finance for Egypt, said.

“The humanitarian situation [in Gaza], if you compare it to last year, it’s maybe better, but it still needs a lot of intervention,” Qatar’s Prime Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Al Thani, said.

Isaac Herzog, President of Israel, expressed his desire to see the conflict end, emphasizing both the human and economic harms it has caused.

Mohammed Mustafa, Prime Minister of the Palestinian National Authority, also expressed his desire to see the conflict come to an end and stressed the need for a supportive and enabling environment in the reconstruction of Gaza.

Swiss President Guy Parmelin warned of “upheavals to come and potential flashpoints” around the world, including in Gaza, Sudan and Iran.

The US-hosted Board of Peace event was organized by the US Government and took place on the margins of the Annual Meeting. It included a significant focus on peace and recovery in Gaza. The Forum facilitated the session by providing space at the Davos Congress Centre.

Regional political and business leaders expressed hope that efforts to bring peace to the region will bring positive results. Discussions on the future of Gaza focused on the US’ role in peace negotiations.

Despite the shadow these issues cast on parts of the Middle East, those leaders present made it clear: their focus is on prosperity for their citizens, companies and for the region as a whole.

“The region is hungry for peace. The region wants to focus on economic development,” Noor Ali Alkhulaif, Minister of Sustainable Development of Bahrain, Chief Executive, Bahrain Economic Development Board, said.

Political stability is crucial in that effort, leaders said, but so too is investing in their people and their strengths – and that may be happening faster in the Middle East than in anywhere else in the world.

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