13 February 2026 11:15 pm
World leaders pledge action for peace, sustainable development

World leaders pledge action for peace, sustainable development

Sep 23, 2024

On the way to a Sustainable Future, ESG Reporting is not sufficient; a Pact for the Future with all is needed: World leaders pledge action for peace and sustainable development.

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UN Photo/Loey Felipe
A wide view of the General Assembly Hall during the opening of the Summit of the Future.

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Pact for the Future: World leaders pledge action for peace, sustainable development

 

By Vibhu Mishra

 UN Affairs

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World leaders on Sunday adopted the Pact for the Future, a landmark declaration pledging concrete actions towards a safer, more peaceful, sustainable and inclusive world for tomorrow’s generations.

The Pact along with its annexes, the Global Digital Compact and the Declaration on Future Generations, was adopted by consensus, despite a last-minute proposal for an amendment by some countries, including Russia, Iran, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and Syria.

The amendment sought to incorporate text calling for non-intervention in any issue of national sovereignty, and the primacy of intergovernmental deliberation, in effect, downplaying the role of the civil society or private sector interests. It was rejected after the 193-member Assembly decided not to act on the proposal.

Click here for UN News’ live coverage of the meeting and here to download the resolution

Pact for the Future

The Pact’s five broad focus areas include: sustainable development; international peace and security; science and technology; youth and future generations and transforming global governance.

This has become an urgent pivot, as multilateral financial institutions and even the United Nations itself have come up short seeking solutions to 21st century problems, the pact lays out.

By endorsing the Pact, UN Member States pledged, among other things, to:

  • Turbocharge the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on climate change, two landmark 2015 agreements that have seen halting progress and missed milestones
  • Listen to young people and include them in decision-making, at the national and global levels
  • Build stronger partnerships with civil society, the private sector, local and regional authorities and more
  • Redouble efforts to build and sustain peaceful, inclusive and just societies and address the root causes of conflicts
  • Protect all civilians in armed conflict
  • Accelerate the implementation of our commitments on women, peace and security

Global Digital Compact

The Global Digital Compact marks the first truly worldwide agreement on the international regulation of artificial intelligence (AI) and is founded on the idea that technology should benefit everyone.

It outlines commitments to ensure that digital technologies contribute to sustainable development and human rights, while addressing risks like digital divides, cybersecurity, and misuse of technology.

The Compact aims to bridge the digital divide and ensure AI technologies are used responsibly, fostering global cooperation on both AI capabilities and security threats. Governments are also obligated to form an impartial worldwide Scientific Panel on AI and start an international conversation about AI governance inside the UN.

Declaration on Future Generations

The Declaration on Future Generations focuses on securing the well-being of future generations, also highlighting the need to include their interests in decision-making processes.

It also underlines the importance of protecting the environment, promoting intergenerational equity, and ensuring that long-term consequences of today’s actions are considered.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/09/1154671

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Secretary-General Guterres addressing the Summit of the Future.

New opportunities

Speaking after the adoption, Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized that the Pact for the Future and its annexes, “open pathways to new possibilities and opportunities.”

“People everywhere are hoping for a future of peace, dignity, and prosperity. They are crying out for global action to solve the climate crisis, tackle inequality, and address new and emerging risks that threaten everyone,” he said.

“They see the United Nations as essential to solving these challenges,” he continued, adding “the Summit of the Future sets a course for international cooperation that can meet their expectations … now, let’s get to work.”

Months of negotiation

The adoption was the culmination of months of negotiations co-facilitated by Germany and Namibia.

Speaking after the adoption, Philémon Yang, President of the 79th session of the General Assembly, urged nations to move forward, together, in a spirit of solidarity and multilateral cooperation.

“The path we choose must lead to a future where human dignity is respected and human rights are upheld. A future where peace transcends the mere absence of conflict and is grounded in justice, inclusion, and equity.”

Assembly President Yang addressing the Summit of the Future
♦ Read the source UN document.

 

The Rise of Gulf Smart Cities

The Rise of Gulf Smart Cities

Sep 17, 2024

The Rise of Gulf Smart Cities

By  Rachel George on September 16, 2024
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The image above is for more illustration of the topic – Mshereib downtown Doha Qatar – credit: I love Qatar.net

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Saudi Arabia’s Neom project is part of a global trend of “smart city” initiatives, but these projects, driven by advanced technologies, present both opportunities for urban governance and sustainability and risks for repression through increased surveillance, raising geopolitical and ethical concerns.

 

In 2017, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman launched an ambitious $500 billion project to develop “Neom,” a futuristic “megacity” that would cover 10,230 square miles in the northwest of Saudi Arabia. Although the project has faced recent budget cuts and setbacks, it remains a major feature of Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” agenda to modernize its economy.

Saudi Arabia is not alone in its ambitions. Large-scale “smart city” projects have expanded across the globe—spreading across the Gulf, through the wider Middle East, and everywhere from India to Brazil. What’s more, many of these initiatives are fueled by the transfer and export of Chinese and other foreign technologies, indicating their potential as vehicles for geopolitical and economic influence while also raising human rights concerns. Their growth raises promise as well as perils for the future of urban governance around the world.

A rising trend

So-called “smart cities” leverage digital technologies to re-design urban living and governance. Facilitated by artificial intelligence, big data, the Internet of Things (IoT), and other tools and processes, smart cities aim to offer solutions to improve everything from service delivery to security, building maintenance, and beyond. Drawing on city-wide networks of connected devices and sensors, governments can leverage new and emerging technologies to analyze data and implement tools and programs with greater accuracy and efficiency than ever before.

These changes hold the potential to significantly transform societies, given the importance of cities for the global economy and the environment. The World Bank estimates that by 2050, some seven in ten people will live in cities. Currently home to 56% of the world’s population, cities generate an estimated 80% of global GDP. While many “smart city” development projects remain in the early stages, experts suggest they hold “substantial potential” to improve quality of life, sustainability, and other metrics in the near future.

Gulf states’ geography has also helped, as desert landscapes offer available space for construction, enabling ambitious infrastructure projects boosted by oil wealth and centralized power.

One part of the world seeing major investment in the development of smart cities is the Gulf, where Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have launched large-scale projects backed by billions of dollars. These projects have helped GCC states in their quests to modernize their economies, assert regional leadership, and enable further forms of top-down governance. Gulf states’ geography has also helped, as desert landscapes offer available space for construction, enabling ambitious infrastructure projects boosted by oil wealth and centralized power.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced his plans for Neom only months after his appointment, in an effort some say aimed to signal his power and forward-looking ambitions for the country. But, the construction of Neom has faced setbacks and slowdowns. The kingdom’s Public Investment Fund has slowed the approval of requisite budgets in the face of dips in its cash reserves. While the construction continued, only 300,000 people are projected to live there by 2030 instead of the 1.5 million it once anticipated.

In the neighboring United Arab Emirates, the estimated $19 billion “Masdar City” green-urban development project remains underway in Abu Dhabi. As part of its efforts, the Emirati government has been advancing research and development on 6G wireless technology alongside drone delivery technology, AI-facilitated traffic management systems, and other tech-facilitated programs.

In nearby Kuwait, as part of the country’s Vision 2035, the country has invested $4 billion in the development of the country’s first smart and “green” city, Saad Al-Abdullah, and announced ambitions to launch eight more smart cities in the future. The current project aims to house 400,000 people connected by widespread technology-supported services, including smart energy monitors and infrastructure sensors, alongside new e-government initiatives aiming to digitize service delivery.

Promise for services and sustainability 

Smart cities offer promise for better municipal governance, improving efficiencies in everything from heating and waste management to public safety. Evidence suggests that relevant technologies can reduce fatalities from auto collisions or fires in cities by at least 8% and reduce crimes by at least 30%.

Saudi Arabia’s Neom project has committed to supporting water desalination, solar and wind power, green hydrogen, and smart energy grids

These cities may also help improve climate and environmental outcomes, a concern top of mind in the Gulf, where efforts are underway to transition oil-reliant economies. GCC states contributed 2.4% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2021, even though they are home to only 0.61% of the world’s population. As cities account for major contributions of emissions, technology-facilitated urban reforms can help streamline and automate processes to conserve energy. The UAE’s Masdar City runs on power from a nearby solar farm and is supported by smart design to enable walking, natural ventilation, and other practices that help reduce emissions. Saudi Arabia’s Neom project has committed to supporting water desalination, solar and wind power, green hydrogen, and smart energy grids.

Sites for geopolitical influence

Behind many of these projects are Chinese technology and investments. As Gulf-China relations draw closer, China has expanded its efforts to build smart cities. It is home to massive digital infrastructure programs in major urban centers, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen.

China is, in turn, exporting its technologies around the world. This tech transfer is fuelling smart cities, which have become the second-most common application for Chinese AI exports behind medical imaging. The Gulf is a prime example. According to the World Economic Forum, there has been a “surge” in tech investments between China and the GCC, which is boosted in part by China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its related $79 billion Digital Silk Road. Middle Eastern countries are a growing recipient of Chinese technology transfer and investments. In Saudi Arabia, Chinese company Huawei has announced plans to invest some $400 million in the country’s cloud region over the next five years. Huawei has also reportedly backed some of the technology in a new security program in the UAE, “police without a policeman.” Kuwait’s Saad Al-Abdullah City housing project was contracted to China’s Gezhouba Group for construction, and reports indicate that Chinese company Alibaba is working to store cloud data in Oman.

Risks for repression

Smart cities bring risks and can easily become sites for geopolitical influence or repressive government agendas. Many raised concerns about the spread of China’s technology to the Gulf, especially given many of the relevant companies’ ties to the Chinese government.

These projects can put immense power in the hands of authoritarian governments, giving them access to vast amounts of personal data with the ability to track, geolocate, and otherwise surveil citizens. The Gulf states could leverage technology to enhance crackdowns on dissenters or target specific groups. Such potential is visible elsewhere in the world, as authoritarian regimes have benefitted from Chinese tech transfer to suppress democratic movements. Iran’s surveillance capabilities more than doubled in 2022, boosted by exports of Chinese video recorders, and were used in turn to crack down on protesters calling for democratic change and women’s rights. In this case, Iran allegedly used a network of urban cameras to surveil women’s public movements, using AI to identify those who did not cover their hair appropriately. Just as China’s government is criticized for its use of AI-facilitated technology and anti-democratic practices, so too are Gulf States, whose repressive practices could be boosted by smart city tools and data.

Yet another concern is that the physical construction of such cities comes with human costs. In 2020, the controversial development of Saudi Arabia’s smart city Neom led to reported forced evictions and even the killing of one activist who protested its construction.

A smart approach

US policymakers concerned with the ethical development of technology governance should keep a close eye on the rise of smart cities in the Gulf. While they offer promise for global climate progress, their rise also brings clear risks. The United States, the European Union, and other actors should leverage their influence to monitor and safeguard the ways that technologies from US private firms are used in urban development abroad while ensuring investments in standards for ethical urban governance at home. Iran’s use of surveillance technology from Chinese company Tiandy, for example, prompted US sanctions in the past. Reports of Iran’s use of surveillance cameras from German company Bosch have prompted new investigations into the company’s deployment abroad.

The rise of the Gulf’s smart cities—including the news of recent setbacks governments have faced in financing these aspirational projects—will be critical to track.

The use of AI technologies for repression in the Gulf, including technologies from US and European firms, will require close tracking. Western companies must ensure they do not contribute to the repressive toolkit governments hold to enact violence or suppress movements. The US and other nations can also consider new sanctions, as it has done in the past, against foreign companies whose technologies have supported repressive surveillance. The rise of the Gulf’s smart cities—including the news of recent setbacks governments have faced in financing these aspirational projects—will be critical to track. Those interested in the connections between technology and safe, fair, and equitable urban development worldwide should be sure to take note of their expansion in the Gulf.

 The views represented in this piece are those of the author and do not express the official position of the Wilson Center.  

About the Author

MEP_ Rachel George

Rachel George

Lecturing Fellow, Sanford School of Public Policy, Center for International Development, Duke University; Nonresident Fellow, Institute for Global Affairs

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Cement is a big problem for the environment

Cement is a big problem for the environment

Sep 13, 2024

We know that today. And Cement is a big problem for the environment. Here’s how to make it more sustainable by the WEF.
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The image above caption: The global cement industry is a large contributor to CO2 emissions. Image: Unsplash/CHUTTERSNAP

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Cement is a big problem for the environment. Here’s how to make it more sustainable

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By Michael Purton, Senior Writer, Forum Agenda
  • Global cement manufacturing is responsible for about 8% of the world’s total CO2 emissions.
  • And the current trajectory would see emissions from the sector soar to 3.8 billion tonnes per year.
  • A new report from the World Economic Forum outlines four main decarbonization pathways for the cement and concrete industry.

It’s been said that if the cement industry were a country, it would be the world’s third or fourth-largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2). Global cement manufacturing produced 1.6 billion metric tonnes of CO2 in 2022, the latest year for which there are figures – that’s about 8% of the world’s total CO2 emissions.

Reducing the amount of carbon emitted by cement production is critical to achieving global climate targets.

Carbon dioxide emissions from the manufacture of cement worldwide from 1960 to 2022

Emissions from cement production have more than doubled since the turn of the century.Image: Statista

Cement is, of course, a key ingredient of concrete – so an obvious solution would be to reduce the amount of concrete the world needs. But concrete is the second most widely used material after water, and its global annual production is forecast to grow from 14 billion m³ today to 20 billion m³ by mid-century, as human societies urbanize and demand for infrastructure grows.

This trajectory would see CO2 emissions from the sector soar to 3.8 billion tonnes per year, based on current practice.

Unlike other sectors, where the largest share of emissions is energy-related, in cement and concrete production, more than half are process emissions, outlines a newly launched insight report from the World Economic Forum’s First Movers Coalition, in collaboration with Deloitte. The industry, therefore, requires either novel solutions to a millennia-old sector or a strong reliance on carbon capture.

Here are four main decarbonization pathways in the cement and concrete industry and the innovative solutions contributing to each of these streams:

1. Cutting the clinker

Clinker is the primary component in cement and is extremely carbon-intensive, making up 90% of overall emissions from cement.

Replacing clinker with supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) that are less carbon intensive directly tackles process-related emissions, but no existing commercialized solutions exist that can completely replace clinker at scale.

However, there are a number of proven ways to significantly reduce the amount of clinker needed to make cement and concrete, and one of the most promising solutions is called LC3 – Limestone Calcined Clay Cement – which can reduce CO2 emissions by around 40% compared with conventional cement.

LC3 addresses both sources of carbon emissions from making clinker. First by replacing half of the clinker with calcined clay and ground limestone, neither of which releases carbon when heated the way limestone does. Second, the clay is heated to a much lower temperature, which reduces the amount of fuel required and means electricity can be used instead of fossil fuels.

Elsewhere, scientists at the University of Cambridge have developed a “zero emissions” technique to produce cleaner clinker.

Their alternative process involves reusing cement paste (which is identical in chemical composition to limestone) from demolished buildings, with the scientists saying it could save up to three gigatonnes of CO2 a year.

2. Replacing limestone

The heating of limestone to produce clinker accounts for 50% of emissions in cement production.

So alternative chemistries and processes that replace limestone from the clinker-production process provide a significant way to cut emissions.

US company Brimstone has developed a process to make cement from carbon-free calcium silicate rocks – which can be found in abundance at the surface of every continent in the world – instead of limestone.

The company says its process also removes CO2 from the air because its rocks contain magnesium which can passively and permanently capture atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Sublime Systems is using calcium silicate minerals or industrial wastes to produce cement using an electrochemical process rather than heat.

Cemvision has begun piloting the production of fossil-free cement made entirely from recycled materials.

Instead of using virgin limestone and fossil fuels, the Swedish company recycles by-products from mining and steel, requiring less energy and generating no waste.

The company has designed their cement to be “drop-in”, which means it can be integrated into existing buildings alongside conventional cement, to enable quick adoption.

View video on WEF 

 

3. Fuel switching and electrification

Fuel switching and electrification are critical to lowering energy-related emissions.

Partially heating up the kiln used to make clinker with a decarbonized electricity source and replacing fossil fuels with low-carbon fuel alternatives for the remaining part can help phase out coal.

CoolBrook, SaltX and Rondo Energy have all developed electric or thermal-based alternatives to fossil-based kilns and calciners – a stage that preheats limestone before entering the kiln.

Another approach to achieve the very high temperatures required is concentrated solar, which has been tested by start-ups like Synhelion – in collaboration with Cemex – and Heliogen.

Low-carbon fuel alternatives are common to other industries as well, and go from near-term drop-in solutions, including biomass and plastic waste, to longer-term alternatives such as green hydrogen.

4. Capturing carbon

Point-source carbon capture, where CO2 from large sources such as power plants and industrial facilities is trapped and stored to prevent it from being released into the atmosphere, is a key method for cutting emissions in the cement and concrete industry.

Projections by the Global Cement and Concrete Association show that carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) could reduce carbon emissions by 36%, making it the largest lever to reduce the cement industry’s emissions.

The shipping town of Brevik in Norway has become the first location in the world to have a cement plant which includes carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology.

Installation of the 100-metre-tall CCS facility at the Heidelberg Materials cement plant began in August and is due to be completed by the end of 2024.

It will trap the CO2 from the clinker production process, preventing the gas from being emitted into the atmosphere, and the carbon will be securely stored underground in the North Sea.

Net-zero cement production

At last year’s COP28 in Dubai, countries agreed to launch the Cement and Concrete Breakthrough initiative, which strives to make near-zero-emission cement production established and growing in every region of the world by 2030.

For this goal to become a reality, the widespread adoption of innovative cement and concrete production processes such as the four listed above will be essential.

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Sustainability ‘top concern’ for consumers, not for CEOs

Sustainability ‘top concern’ for consumers, not for CEOs

Sep 12, 2024

Sustainability ‘top concern’ for consumers, not for CEOs: report

Anup Oommen
28 per cent of consumers choose sustainability due to awareness campaigns by brands and retailers, while 35 per cent say they made the choice due to media articles and documentaries, and 33 per cent attribute it to availability.

There has been a sharp decline in CEOs’ relative prioritisation of sustainability, as AI, growth, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty have risen to the top of their agendas, according to the latest report released by Bain & Company.

Ahead of Campaign Middle East‘s “The Do Good Issue” on sustainability, ethical marketing, and CSR, we’ve been keeping a close eye on whether the momentum on sustainability has kept pace with previous years.

Bain & Company’s “Visionary CEO’s Guide to Sustainability 2024,” which was released earlier today, shows that companies are already struggling to meet their existing sustainability commitments, with many companies reassessing, adjusting, and, in some cases, retracting their climate commitments.

“The transition to a sustainable world is following a familiar cycle,” said Jean-Charles van den Branden, Bain’s global Sustainability practice leader. “What began a few years ago as boundless excitement has given way to pragmatic realism. As the challenge of meeting bold commitments becomes clear, many companies are rethinking what is achievable and on what timeline.”

Jean-Charles van den Branden added, “But slowing progress would be a mistake. Our research shows many sustainable technologies are likely to reach their tipping point more quickly than expected. Forward-thinking companies will stay the course and lead the way as a mix of new technologies, consumer and customer behavior, and smart policy creates valuable opportunities for their industries.”

Sustainability still a top concern for consumers

While personal experience with extreme weather is the top reason consumers say they decided to buy sustainable products, 35 per cent say they made the choice due to media articles and documentaries, 33 per cent attribute it to availability, and 28 per cent credit awareness campaigns by brands and retailers.

As such, when it comes to sustainable shopping, consumers say brands and retailers play a big role in their decision-making process.

Bain’s research points to the imperative for consumer companies to de-average shoppers—engaging them less as a monolith and more as a complex group of specific customer segments, prioritise packaging that is both recycled and recyclable, and forge partnerships across the value chain to create greater accessibility to sustainable products.

sustainability report Bain and Company

Also, it’s not just consumers who are shopping for sustainability. Bain’s survey of 500 B2B buyers and sellers shows sustainability is now one of corporate buyers’ top three purchasing criteria, and 36 per cent say they would leave suppliers that don’t meet their expectations. Nearly 60 per cent say they’ll be willing to do so three years from now.

Likewise, Bain’s survey found nearly 50 per cent of corporate buyers said they would pay a sustainability premium of 5 per cent or more today, and they expect their willingness to pay to increase in the future.

sustainability report Bain and Company

This message seems to be getting lost on suppliers. While 85 per cent of suppliers say they embed some degree of sustainability in their products and services, only 27 per cent consider themselves very knowledgeable about their customers’ sustainability needs.

Bain outlines four steps — on customer, value, salesforce, and pricing — suppliers can take to start selling sustainability smarter.

Marrying AI and sustainability

Consumers and customers continue to rate sustainability as an important purchase criterion, but they often lack a clear understanding of what makes a product or service sustainable.

The Bain report has suggested that AI can help close this gap by providing more effective approaches to communicate about sustainable products and propositions.

“We advise companies to incorporate AI into their sustainability strategies to boost both innovation and resilience,” said Eric Guraieb, Partner and member of the Energy & Natural Resources and Sustainability practices at Bain & Company in the Middle East

“However, it’s crucial that they account for and mitigate AI’s impact on carbon emissions right from the start. By embedding sustainability from the outset, businesses can take the lead in shaping a greener, tech-driven future,” Guraieb concluded.

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Deserts’ biggest threat? Flooding

Deserts’ biggest threat? Flooding

Sep 11, 2024

Deserts’ biggest threat? According to a report, flooding caused by increased soil erosion in coastal and Saharan areas due to desertification worsens flood impacts on Middle Eastern and North African port cities.

 

The image above is for illustration – credit WebManagerCenter

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Deserts’ biggest threat? Flooding

by University of Southern California

Deserts' biggest threat? Flooding.
Topography (NASA DEM) and Storm Daniel’s rainfall accumulation (9–11 September 2023) within the region of interest (red square). Credit: Nature Communications (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49699-8

A new study from the USC Viterbi School of Engineering researchers, along with researchers from the Institute de Physique du Globe de Paris at the University of Paris Cité, has found that the increase in soil erosion in coastal areas due to desertification is worsening flood impacts on Middle Eastern and North African port cities.

The researchers focused their observations on the devastating 2023 floods in the city of Derna, Libya, which took the lives of more than 11,300 people and showed how the increase in  significantly contributed to the catastrophic toll of these unusual desert floods.

The research, published in Nature Communications, was published almost a year after the deadly flood happened on September 10, 2023. The co-authors believe that their work sheds light on the alarming vulnerability that arid areas face given the rising frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change and the urgent need for advanced earth observation programs to monitor and characterize these areas.

Over the past decade, the North African Sahara, an area larger than the continental United States, has faced a dangerous combination of conditions; increasingly  which are interrupted by intense, coastal rainstorms.

The source of such changes are as follows: increasing desertification has led to intensified droughts, and rainstorms in the region have increased in frequency due to the rising seawater temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean because of global warming.

The paper’s corresponding author, Essam Heggy, who is a research scientist in the Microwave Systems, Sensors, and Imaging Lab (MiXIL) within the Ming Hsieh Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering and a co-principal investigator at the USC Viterbi Center for Arid and Water Research Exploration (AWARE), says that together, these two extreme conditions are increasing soil erosion and generating deadly mud flows that are hard to control with the aging dams that exist in the area.

While some scholars believe that droughts are the Sahara’s deadliest threat, Heggy warns this is not the case. His collaborating paper, “Assessing flash flood erosion following Storm Daniel in Libya,” he says, provides the evidence.

A year ago, in the Fall of 2023, Storm Daniel also known as “Medicane Daniel” struck the eastern coast of Libya, causing unprecedented flash floods with a death toll of more than 11,300 people and large-scale infrastructure damage. (It has been suggested by the Yale Climate Connections that flash floods of this nature have not been observed on the continent in over 100 years.)

The authors explain that Africa’s deadliest flood in a century, which occurred in the desert, happened due to a combination of factors: unusually high precipitation, collapses in two flood control dams, and the failure of the city’s “blue” or water infrastructure to regulate this extreme event.

They suggest that sediment loading, resulting from surface erosion, increased the density of flowing water and exacerbated the catastrophic impact of the flash floods in the coastal cities of Derna and Susah, where 66% of Derna’s, and 48% of Susah’s urban surfaces experienced moderate-to-high damages.

Using a series of Sentinel-1A C-band orbital Synthetic Aperture Radar images, the researchers measured the changes in the returned signal coherence, which informed the changes in surface textural properties before and after the storm’s occurrence. (These differences serve as a proxy for mapping flood erosion and assessing infrastructure damages.)

The researchers demonstrated that the flow within the streams was heavily loaded and thickened with eroded soils which increased the flow’s destructive nature. This, in turn, contributed to the failure of two dams that were supposed to protect the city and residents of Derna.

Existing runoff flow models are valuable for estimating  extents, says Heggy. However, he says they fall short of assessing surface erosion in deserts, which can have a devastating impact, as seen in Derna.

Radar satellites, Heggy says, overcome this limitation. “Improving the monitoring of arid watersheds using advanced radar satellites will be crucial for mitigating these devastating risks across several parts of the Sahara, Arabian Peninsula, and other deserts.”

Jonathan Normand, a visiting graduate student at the USC AWARE Center and the first author of the paper says, “Today, you can post on social media from the middle of a desert thanks to the hundreds of communication satellites now orbiting Earth. Yet, researchers are still left with a limited number of satellites to grasp the complexities of Earth’s dynamics and surface processes in deserts.”

“The sequence of events that happened in Libya is one that can happen in many populous areas across North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula,” warns Heggy and colleagues in a parallel study carried out with researchers from Morocco and Spain.

There are also added risk factors, notes Heggy: Storms are getting stronger, and cities are getting more populous and less organized in terms of policies to reduce development and increase disaster preparedness.

“The deadly floods of Derna’s shows that regional policymakers in the Middle East and North Africa are not yet sufficiently listening to science, although the last two climate change conferences were hosted in the region. The deadliest enemy ahead is our own belief that these extremes are punctual events that will not repeat. Climate models tell us that they will hit back even stronger.”

 

More information: Jonathan C. L. Normand et al, Assessing flash flood erosion following storm Daniel in Libya, Nature Communications (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49699-8

 

Journal information: Nature Communications

Provided by University of Southern California via Phys.org

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