High waves have damaged facilities along the beach in the northern Egyptian coastal city of Alexandria, fuelling fears of a more devastating recurrence in the coming days and uncertainty about the future.

Alexandria, Egypt’s most famous Mediterranean city, has been standing at the forefront of effects from the climate change-induced rise in sea level.

Over the decade, the city has experienced extreme weather, including higher waves, heavier rainfall, and floods, which have caused damage to residents and prompted calls for mitigation and adaptation measures.

In the past few days, waves—up to 3 metres high—rammed into the Alexandria coast, submerging seafront cafés and restaurants, causing losses to owners and threatening buildings dozens of metres away from the beach.

This causes people living in these buildings to view proximity to the sea as a curse rather than a blessing, as it was many decades ago.

The same waves have prompted the Meteorological Authority to issue marine alerts for the city and other Mediterranean cities.

While recurrent at this time each year, the intensity of the waves is unprecedented, turning climate change debates into a hot issue among ordinary people, from a mere scientific phenomenon they used to hear about in news bulletins or in discussion forums held by the cultural elite.

On 15 February, an ordinary female resident of Alexandria raised fears among locals by casting doubt on the city’s ability to endure for two more years under current conditions, having had a firsthand account of the waves over the previous two days.

A day later, a male resident of the city wrote this on X: “The disaster everybody overlooks: the Alexandria coast is being eroded; the sea seeps into the beach; all beach facilities are prone to submersion, and we are all headed towards destruction full sail”.

Tip of the iceberg

These deteriorating conditions are just a small part of the broader picture of how global warming is affecting Egypt.

The populous, economically struggling state is among the first countries to suffer from this warming, whose effects are evident in multiple respects and could lead to economic and social devastation if not addressed appropriately, specialists said.

“Climate change poses serious threats to Egypt’s future, with its effects being strongly noticed and felt everywhere in the country,” Houssam Muharram, a former advisor to the Egyptian Minister of Environmental Affairs, said.

Speaking to The New Arab, he expected these impacts to intensify in the coming years.

“Rising temperatures and the rise in the sea level will threaten Egypt’s food security, not in the distant future, but very soon, because of the toll they will have on farmland and agriculture around the nation,” he added.

With only around 0.6% of global CO₂ emissions, Egypt is not a major international contributor to this greenhouse gas.

Nevertheless, the impacts of climate change are hitting hard and are starting to show in different ways, all of which are being felt by people on the streets.

Rising temperatures are causing economic losses in Egypt, including forcing farmers across the country to change their techniques to mitigate crop losses, altering agricultural seasons, and reshaping the country’s agricultural map.

Covering only 5.5% of Egypt’s land area, the delta is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to sea-level rise.

Climate change is also—among other things—exacerbating Egypt’s water scarcity by increasing evaporation rates, altering rainfall patterns, and reducing flows from the Nile River, the country’s principal source of freshwater.

The same source is also subject to increased demand pressure as crops need more irrigation under hotter conditions.

Negative projections

Climate change is already a fact of daily life in Alexandria, a city of 5.6 million.

Once a preserve of wealthy vacationers, the city, a melting pot of Mediterranean cultural influences, faces uncertain prospects due to coastal inundation.

Deep under such a threat is the city’s low elevation, with much of it barely 1-2 metres above sea level.

Large areas of the city could be inundated, displacing hundreds of thousands of residents, damaging infrastructure, and causing billions in economic losses, according to scientific estimates.

Some projections expect sizeable portions of the city to be at risk by the middle of this century or towards its end.

A 2025 study estimated that, by 2060, sea-level rise-induced flooding, erosion, and intrusion will cause between $5.2 and $17.3 billion in damage to Alexandria’s transportation, housing, and agriculture.

The land is also sinking in the city, worsening flooding and causing saltwater seepage, which undermines foundations and leads to cracked buildings and increased collapses.

In October 2020, the city’s residents got a bitter taste of the effects of climate change when hundreds of families were forced out of their homes by heavy rains and flooding.

Last year, unseasonal storms caused flooding and damaged seafront businesses, homes and infrastructure, raising the alarm about climate acceleration.

Alexandria’s coastline has been receding at an average of 3.5 metres each year for the last 20 years, driven by sea-level rise, reduced sediment from the Nile and intensified wave action and storms.

Meanwhile, Egyptian authorities are not standing idly by, investing substantial sums in mitigation measures such as installing wave-dissipating concrete blocks, replenishing eroded beaches, and sustaining the shoreline.

But the accelerating effects of global warming are instigating calls for more action, amid expectations that climate change can hit the city harder in the coming years.

“Assessments for the climate change-induced damage that will happen in our country are all based on scientific studies and projections,” Elham Mahmoud, a professor of oceanography at Suez Canal University, told TNA.

She referred to a plan by the Egyptian government to adapt to the effects of climate change until 2050, describing it as “promising”.

“Nevertheless, we need to act very quickly to prevent climate change hazards from widening in scope and increasing in intensity,” she added.

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