MENA’s Wheat Market Set to Reach 132 Million Tons

Image above is for illustration -courtesy of GRAIN

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MENA’s Wheat Market Set to Reach 132 Million Tons Valued at $49 Billion by 2035

IndexBox has just published a new report: MENA – Wheat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the wheat market in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for 2024, with forecasts to 2035. In 2024, consumption and production saw a significant decline after two years of growth, with consumption falling to 104 million tons and production to 58 million tons. The market value also dropped to $35.1 billion. However, the market is forecast to accelerate, with volume projected to reach 132 million tons by 2035, representing a CAGR of +2.2%, and value to reach $49 billion, a CAGR of +3.1%. Turkey, Egypt, and Iran are the largest consumers and producers. The region remains a major importer, with Egypt, Morocco, and Algeria leading purchases, while Turkey dominates exports. Key challenges include fluctuating yields and harvested areas.

Key Findings

• MENA wheat consumption declined to 104M tons in 2024 but is forecast to grow to 132M tons by 2035
• The market value is projected to increase from $35.1B to $49B by the end of 2035
• Turkey, Egypt, and Iran are the top consuming countries, accounting for 58% of total consumption
• MENA is a net importer, with Egypt, Morocco, and Algeria constituting 56% of import value
• Turkey dominates regional wheat exports, holding an 84% share of total export volume

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for wheat in MENA, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 132M tons by the end of 2035. In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $49B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

Consumption of Wheat

In 2024, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in consumption of wheat, when its volume decreased by -5.3% to 104M tons. Over the period under review, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 5.7% against the previous year. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 110M tons, and then fell in the following year.

The value of the wheat market in MENA fell to $35.1B in 2024, dropping by -7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $37.9B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Turkey (25M tons), Egypt (20M tons) and Iran (16M tons), with a combined 58% share of total consumption.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Egypt (with a CAGR of +5.2%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Turkey ($8.6B), Egypt ($7.4B) and Iran ($3.6B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, together comprising 56% of the total market.

Among the main consuming countries, Egypt, with a CAGR of +5.6%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of wheat per capita consumption in 2024 were Morocco (293 kg per person), Turkey (288 kg per person) and Algeria (194 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Egypt (with a CAGR of +3.2%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

MENA’s Production of Wheat

In 2024, production of wheat in MENA fell to 58M tons, waning by -5.3% against 2023. Overall, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 with an increase of 12%. Over the period under review, production reached the peak volume at 62M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, wheat production fell to $20.2B in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the production volume increased by 13% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $22.8B. From 2016 to 2024, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Turkey (21M tons), Iran (14M tons) and Egypt (9.7M tons), with a combined 76% share of total production.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Iran (with a CAGR of +3.5%), while production for the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the production figures.

Yield

The average wheat yield dropped to 2.6 tons per ha in 2024, falling by -3.8% on the year before. Over the period under review, the yield, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when the yield increased by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the wheat yield hit record highs at 2.7 tons per ha in 2023, and then fell in the following year.

Harvested Area

In 2024, the total area harvested in terms of wheat production in MENA contracted slightly to 22M ha, which is down by -1.6% against 2023 figures. Overall, the harvested area continues to indicate a mild reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when the harvested area increased by 4.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to wheat production reached the maximum at 25M ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Imports

MENA’s Imports of Wheat

In 2024, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas purchases of wheat, when their volume decreased by -5.2% to 48M tons. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when imports increased by 24% against the previous year. The volume of import peaked at 51M tons in 2023, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, wheat imports declined slightly to $16.3B in 2024. Total imports indicated a perceptible increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports decreased by -18.4% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when imports increased by 35% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $20B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of wheat imports in 2024 were Egypt (10M tons), Morocco (7.9M tons), Algeria (6.3M tons) and Turkey (5.7M tons), together resulting at 63% of total import. Saudi Arabia (3.6M tons) took a 7.5% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Yemen (5%). The following importers – Iran (2.1M tons), Tunisia (2M tons), the United Arab Emirates (1.7M tons) and Israel (1.7M tons) – each recorded a 15% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Egypt (with a CAGR of +16.7%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat importing markets in MENA were Egypt ($4.4B), Morocco ($2.4B) and Algeria ($2.3B), together comprising 56% of total imports.

Among the main importing countries, Egypt, with a CAGR of +18.0%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the import price in MENA amounted to $340 per ton, approximately equating the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 36% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices reached the maximum at $402 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Egypt ($436 per ton), while Turkey ($239 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tunisia (+2.1%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

MENA’s Exports of Wheat

In 2024, overseas shipments of wheat decreased by -3.4% to 2M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a four-year rising trend. Overall, exports, however, saw strong growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when exports increased by 176%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 2.1M tons, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, wheat exports reduced dramatically to $679M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a resilient expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 when exports increased by 159% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $813M, and then shrank remarkably in the following year.

Exports By Country

Turkey dominates exports structure, recording 1.7M tons, which was approx. 84% of total exports in 2024. It was distantly followed by the United Arab Emirates (116K tons) and Oman (104K tons), together c[wpedon id=”126218″ align=”center”]ommitting an 11% share of total exports. Syrian Arab Republic (38K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

Exports from Turkey increased at an average annual rate of +16.0% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Oman (+119.5%) and Syrian Arab Republic (+12.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Oman emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in MENA, with a CAGR of +119.5% from 2013-2024. The United Arab Emirates experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of Turkey (+17 p.p.) and Oman (+5.1 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2013-2024, the share of the United Arab Emirates (-15.6 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Turkey ($565M) remains the largest wheat supplier in MENA, comprising 83% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the United Arab Emirates ($41M), with a 6.1% share of total exports. It was followed by Oman, with a 4.8% share.

In Turkey, wheat exports increased at an average annual rate of +16.4% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United Arab Emirates (+0.1% per year) and Oman (+125.6% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the export price in MENA amounted to $337 per ton, declining by -13.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 23%. Over the period under review, the export prices reached the maximum at $416 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Syrian Arab Republic ($443 per ton) and the United Arab Emirates ($356 per ton), while Oman ($317 per ton) and Turkey ($335 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Syrian Arab Republic (+11.9%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

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