The “MENA region has to import about 57% of the calories consumed domestically, mostly wheat, grains, proteins and dairy,” all as per ZAWYA’s #MENA|10 FEBRUARY, 2019 with a call for action such as it is high time to start thinking: where does the MENA region’s food comes from?
The MENA the Largest Food Importing Region in the World can easily be ascertained notably by looking at the FAO map below.
It’s time to worry about where our food comes from
By Hafed Al-Ghwell, Arab News
The Middle East and North Africa has long been disadvantaged by a
climate and geography unfavorable to large-scale agriculture. This in turn
affects food security in the region. Scarce water supplies and mostly dry, arid
lands will continue to cripple the region’s ability to achieve self-sufficiency
in food production.
The abundance of hydrocarbons and other minerals has mitigated some of these
concerns, and some MENA countries can afford to import large quantities of
produce and grains. Additionally, resources, manpower and capital are certainly
available but mismanagement, waste, poor planning and a lack of clear policies
have taken their toll on the region’s ability to harness meager resources and
grow its own food. Higher population densities and population growth rates have
inevitably turned the region into a net importer of agricultural commodities
for food for the foreseeable future.
Unfortunately, it is not only the Middle East that is experiencing population
growth, and subsequently increased demand for food and water. A US government
report estimates that the global demand for food, water and energy will
increase by 50 percent as a result of changing consumption patterns among the
expanding middle classes.
By 2030, the world’s population is expected to reach 8.3 billion, which will
put additional strain on food and water. Already, in the past eight years, the
world has consumed more food than it has produced, while global water
requirements are predicted to reach nearly 7 billion cubic meters, 40 percent
above the level of current sustainable supplies. Expected climate changes will
only exacerbate these alarming numbers. Agriculture already consumes more than
60 percent of water supplies and these requirements will increase to 65 percent
a decade from now, when nations are supposed to meet 2030 Millennium
Development Goals.
One of these goals is the elimination of hunger, but the MENA region has
to import about 57 percent of the calories consumed domestically, mostly wheat,
grains, proteins and dairy. Given that the ready availability of affordable and
diverse foodstuffs is a crucial factor in long-term stability, MENA countries
can be forgiven for relying heavily on imports for the time being. For example,
the conflict in Yemen has reduced grain harvests there by a third, and with the
water table falling by about 2 meters a year, it is unlikely that the country
will be able to stop importing more than 80 percent of its grain any time soon.
Grain harvests are also falling in Iraq, Syria and Jordan, while populations
are still growing.
Relying on imports makes the region vulnerable to the effects of economic
downturns, population growth, climate changes and supply disruptions caused by
natural disasters. This last problem is of growing concern due to the
increasing incidence of extreme-weather events, mainly influenced by climate
change.
Weather patterns are likely to intensify, with wet regions getting wetter while
dry, arid areas such as the Middle East and North Africa will experience
further declines in rainfall. Some forecasts suggest precipitation in Algeria,
Saudi Arabia and Iraq will decline by 4.9 percent, 10.5 percent and 13.3
percent respectively. This decline will also affect the southwest United
States, southern Europe, Central Asia and parts of southern Africa. Reduced
rainfall will in turn affect agricultural production among net exporters and
increase food imports elsewhere. If current trends persist, the Middle East is
likely to experience shortages of food and water, necessitating outside help or
a transformation of current policy, either to boost local production or
increase spending on imports.
When the effects of protracted, often violent, conflicts are taken into
account, food security becomes a very serious concern. A United Nations report
found that more than 27 percent of the population in conflict areas is
undernourished or chronically hungry. This contrasts with more stable
countries, where less than 5 percent of the population is undernourished.
Transforming an economy away from a dependence on imports of agricultural
produce and foodstuffs is not easy. Several sectors, including agriculture,
education, trade, health care, labor, transport, law, finance and even
technology, need to function in close cooperation and coordination to achieve
appreciable gains in local production.
Given the fast-growing population in the MENA region, dwindling water supplies,
extreme weather events and unpredictable markets, governments must act swiftly
and with utmost urgency to counter a looming food and water crisis.
This fast-approaching challenge, which threatens the national security of all Arab countries, can only be faced and managed collectively, through serious, urgent and deep cooperation. It is, in short, an existential threat that can no longer be ignored.
Hafed Al-Ghwell is a non-resident senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Institute at the John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. He is also senior adviser at the international economic consultancy Maxwell Stamp and at the geopolitical risk advisory firm Oxford Analytica, a member of the Strategic Advisory Solutions International Group in Washington DC and a former adviser to the board of the World Bank Group. Twitter: @HafedAlGhwell
Arab News: Copyright: Arab News © 2017 All rights reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. ( www.Syndigate.info ).
