Northumbria University in Newcastle came up with a Press release on how the UK-Saudi research team exploring how AI can drive sustainability..
Academics from Northumbria University and King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM) in Saudi Arabia are investigating how Artificial Intelligence (AI) can make the construction industry greener.
Dr Pablo Martinez Rodriguez, from Northumbria’s Department of Architecture and Built Environment and co-investigator Dr. Osama Mohsen from KFUPM have received funding from the British Council’s UK Saudi Challenge Fund to undertake a year-long research project. They have been selected because of their expertise and history of research in this field. In particular, their work will look at reducing waste from construction sites in the UK and Saudi Arabia as part of a major drive toward greater sustainability.
The UK construction industry uses up to 40 percent of the UK’s raw resources every year, 20% of which ends up in landfills. Current UK efforts have managed to divert about 13 percent of it from landfills, looking for alternative ways of disposal or finding novel uses to certain materials, however that is far from the 99 percent goal set up for the near future. Waste reduction in the construction industry is key for any country aiming to achieve the UN sustainability goals marked for 2030.
Saudi Arabia faces similar challenges. But as a rapidly developing economy, it faces additional difficulties in ensuring growth is managed sustainably. According to Saudi Arabia’s National Centre for Waste Management, the environmental degradation caused by solid waste in 2021 had an estimated cost of $1.3 billion. Annual waste generated by the construction industry in Saudi Arabia amounts to approximately 130 million tonnes, of which less than 1 percent is recycled. The rest mostly ends up in landfills – and demand for landfill space is increasing rapidly.
Dr. Martinez Rodriguez and Dr. Mohsen will aim to develop AI models that can identify and quantify waste from a range of building materials, such as wood or plastics, that may end up in landfill sites but that could be recycled. The joint research will also help create a comparative analysis between waste management and sustainability practices in the UK and Saudi Arabia.
Dr. Martinez Rodriguez said: “Most construction sites analyse waste through modelling techniques, rather than measuring what is actually being thrown away. We need a flexible way of processing the data more quickly than we currently have, and by using AI we can install visual sensor systems that monitor skips at construction sites and derive accurately how much waste is actually being produced.
“This would give a value to the waste that is being generated at construction sites and help us better understand the capabilities of circular economy so that the building industry can become more sustainable.”
While the UK is considered to be slightly more advanced than Saudi Arabia in terms of sustainability, there is currently still no accurate waste measurement system in either country. “Our research will therefore have an impact in both the UK and Saudi Arabia and help inform policy and develop best-practice guidelines for the industry,” added Dr. Martinez Rodriguez.
Part of the British Council’s Going Global Partnerships programme, the UK-Saudi Challenge Fund offers grants for UK and Saudi institutions to support research collaboration, internationalisation, and transnational education.
Northumbria already has a successful track record of sustainability research collaboration with partners in Saudi Arabia. This includes work by Northumbria’s Dr Muhammad Wakil Shahzad to develop a sustainable solution for clean drinking water that can be deployed to rural communities and set up easily without scientific know-how. In 2021 Dr Shahzad was awarded a prestigiousEnergy Globe Award (Saudi Arabia) for the project.
Materials are one of the most vibrant areas of synbio innovation today. However, while fashion and other “fast” consumer markets quickly adapt to the changing trends, architecture has historically been relatively conservative when adopting new technologies. The challenge comes from the fact that architectural materials are long-lasting; therefore, their creators have to use the information we have today to predict how those materials will need to perform in the future. It takes someone with a long-range vision to create materials that will serve our needs a hundred years from now. One such person is Ginger Dosier, co-founder and CEO of Biomason.
Ginger Dosier, Cofounder of Biomason
Dosier, who is the chair of the Chemicals and Materials track at SynBioBeta 2024, is an architect turned biomaterials scientist and entrepreneur. After graduating from Cranbrook Academy of Art, she became interested in how architectural materials were made. She set up a lab in her spare bedroom where she experimented with the early prototypes for Biomason’s biocement®. This incredible technology uses microorganisms as ‘masons’ to literally grow concrete. The nature-inspired process produces concrete that sequesters carbon instead of emitting it.
This ethos—the belief that materials can do more—defines Dosier’s vision for the future of materials: “We’re just at the beginning of questioning what materials can do,” she says. I got a chance to interview Ginger Dosier and ponder some of the questions that she considers on a daily basis, like ‘Will the materials that we make today be able to handle the extreme weather events precipitated by climate change?’ ‘How long will they last in the environment?’ ‘And what are the consequences of their persistence?’
Let’s examine some of those questions and see how synthetic biology can help us reimagine the aesthetics, function, and the lifecycle of architectural materials.
Architectural Materials Lifecycle
Back in 2020, an article in Nature made a staggering estimation that anthropogenic (human-made) mass had surpassed the Earth’s living biomass. If this trend continues, anthropogenic mass is projected to reach 3X the global biomass by 2040. A large portion of that is construction materials like concrete, metal, plastic, bricks, and asphalt. Those materials can last in the environment for hundreds of years, polluting ecosystems and threatening biodiversity.
“Some materials used in construction are meant to last for hundreds of years, while others aren’t meant to last 100 years, but rather serve a role,” says Dosier. “For both, we need to think about the consequences of their persistence in the environment.”
While we cannot stop building new structures, we can change what kinds of materials we use. Dosier believes that architects have a big responsibility when considering the lifecycle of building materials. Until very recently, there was not a lot of information about how materials are made, what they do to the environment, or how long they will last. But today, lifecycle analyses are becoming a lot more prevalent. Companies like Costain out of the U.K. specialize in helping their clients carry out comprehensive assessments and develop strategies for sustainable architectural solutions.
Impact on Biodiversity
The construction industry is number six on the list of industries that generate the biggest environmental footprint. It is responsible for half of the world’s raw resource extraction and contributes up to 50% of all landfill waste. Additionally, buildings have a significant footprint, not just when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions and pollution but also land use. The land we build structures on is the same land that serves as a habitat for plants and animals that we share our planet with, so we must consider the impact of our building practices on biodiversity.
One of the things Dosier proposes is being more cognizant of how we use the available land. For example, we could reduce the footprint of buildings’ foundations with stronger supporting materials, be more selective about what materials touch the ground, and ensure that the materials we use are not hazardous to the environment we place them in.
Decarbonization of Materials
Our buildings account for a staggering 37% of global greenhouse gas emissions. While most of that comes from operational processes, such as heating and cooling, the building materials themselves are significant contributors. Today, materials extraction and refinement are responsible for the majority of the total CO2 emissions. Specifically, concrete, the most widely used material in construction, contributes heavily to our CO2 emissions. Decarbonizing materials is one of the main priorities of the industry today.
[Tanankorn Pilong/Canva]
Dosier thinks that decarbonization can take many forms. The first is replacing extracted raw materials with bio-based alternatives. Suppose those bio-based technologies could manufacture materials from waste CO2 even better. Additionally, we need to think about where those materials are produced. Restructuring global supply chains to produce materials locally could have a substantial impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, developing living building materials that can sequesteratmospheric carbon could reduce the operational carbon footprint of buildings.
Now, let’s explore some technologies that are revolutionizing architectural materials and transforming the buildings of tomorrow.
Biocement for a “Greener” Concrete
Concrete is ubiquitous in construction and one of the biggest culprits behind the industry’s CO2 emissions. Those emissions mostly come from how cement (the binding agent that holds concrete together) is produced today. This problem was at the center of the founding mission of Biomason. Biomason has developed a technology that uses microorganisms to create a cement alternative using a process of solid-state fermentation. In this process, microbes put carbon to work by forming calcium carbonate crystals between aggregate particles, eliminating direct emissions from the cement production process.
An image depicting cement with bacteria acting as the bonding agent. This visual shows a cross-section of concrete where bacteria are forming bonds between aggregate particles (DALL-E)
Biomason is not the only company working to solve the cement material challenge. Prometheus Materials, which was founded by a University of Colorado Boulder professor Wil Srubar, is taking inspiration from the way corals and oysters build their shells. Using microalgae with other natural components, Prometheus has developed a zero-carbon bio-cement and bio-concrete. Minus Materials is another startup that works on decarbonizing cement. They are using algae to create limestone, which is responsible for 60% of the emissions associated with the production of Portland cement. Algae-grown limestone, on the other hand, becomes a permanent carbon sink when it is mixed into cement.
Solugen, a Houston-based company specializing in carbon-negative chemicals, uses a different approach to make concrete production more efficient. The company has created Relox™, a series of concrete admixtures that reduce the use of cement and water in concrete as well as improve the strength of the resulting material. This biodegradable and non-toxic solution is made using enzyme chemistry and renewable feedstocks.
In addition to the polluting production process, the short lifespan of concrete is a major problem for the construction industry. Basilisk in Delft, Netherlands, is tackling this challenge by making self-healing concrete. They do this by embedding special limestone-producing bacteria into concrete that can repair cracks. If the concrete cracks and water seeps in, the bacterial spores germinate. They digest the calcium lactate embedded in the concrete mixture and seal the cracks by producing calcium carbonate.
Biofibers
Concrete is an important construction material, but so are the various types of architectural fibers. “We need fibers in architecture—to reinforce concrete, for example—as well as to make the fabrics of our lives,” says Dosier. She points out that because fibers are used in textiles and fashion, this important class of materials is much more responsive to innovation. Citing the framework presented in Stewart Brand’s book The Clock of the Long Now, Dosier explains that materials used for applications like packaging and clothes are among the fastest levels of innovation. Thanks to the overlap in the use of fibers between textiles and construction, however, the architecture industry is able to take advantage of innovations in those materials.
An Image emphasizing the potential future of architectural fibers [DALL-E]
Some of the leading experts in fiber research come from the German Institute of Textile and Fiber Research. The institute focuses on creating sustainable fiber solutions, such as carbon fibers from lignin, as well as optimizing all aspects of the production chain, from utilizing carbon-negative feedstocks to bringing in Industry 4.0 technologies to establish more efficient manufacturing processes.
In a surprising initiative, Researchers at MIT have pioneered a project to develop lab-grown timber alternatives. This one may sound like a crazy idea at first—after all, trees produce timber, the ultimate carbon-negative technology. However, producing wood locally, in places where it does not normally grow, faster, or in a way that imparts specific material characteristics to it could help create more sustainable supply chains. Additionally, lab-grown timber can reduce deforestation and waste by producing wood in the shape of a finished product.
Another way to think about materials sustainability is by utilizing materials that are already abundant. Unlike trees, kelp grows incredibly fast. Keel Labs is developing seaweed-based fiber with a significantly lower environmental footprint than conventional fibers. This is part of the future-thinking materials strategy, switching from traditional feedstocks that are becoming depleted to others that can take their place:
“We’re starting to see more seaweed overgrowth, like the Sargassum in the Pacific,” says Dosier. “So, our creative response to this is ‘what can we make with it’?”
Paints and Coatings
Finally, important types of materials used in construction are paints and coatings. A lot is happening in that space as well, from companies like DSM, BASF, and Visolis making greener chemicals such as solvents and resins to sustainable bio-based pigments from Nature Coatings, PILI, and others. But Dosier thinks that producing more sustainable alternatives to existing types of materials is just the beginning of what biology can do:
“If we put the power of biology in those types of materials, and maybe they do even more,” she says. “Maybe they also absorb pollution inside of our buildings.”
An example of this type of visionary thinking is an IndieBio accelerator program graduate Pneuma Bio. This company is developing ‘living and breathing materials’ with photosynthesizing algae embedded in them. The technology is currently being developed for fiber and textile applications. Still, its founders envision uses where photosynthetic green microalgae are embedded inside the paints that cover the walls of buildings to sequester CO2 from the air and even generate electricity for the building. This approach gives a whole new meaning to ‘green materials.’
Building a Sustainable Future
“There’s an infinite world of what could be possible when we start to take two subjects like architecture and biology and put them together,” says Dosier.
All it takes is imagination and long-range vision to bring these ideas to reality. However, the practical considerations of bringing new technologies into existing markets include making those products cost-competitive. In order to make bio-based alternatives truly sustainable—not only from an environmental but also economic perspective—companies need to consider what kind of inputs they use.
Dosier is a big advocate of diversifying feedstocks, utilizing waste streams where possible and moving away from aseptic fermentation requirements. In addition to that, she believes we need to incorporate more diverse perspectives when developing new technologies and include local contexts, as opposed to developing ‘one-size-fits-all’ types of solutions: “In my opinion, ubiquity is what got us in trouble in the first place,” she says. “We need a more distributed and diverse perspective on global supply chains and be able to adapt those technologies on a location-to-location basis.”
You can hear more perspectives from Ginger Dosier and other synbio leaders who are driving materials innovation in last month’s episode of the SynBioBeta podcast. And, of course, catch Chemicals and Materials track sessions at SynBioBeta 2024.
Cloud seeding was blamed as the United Arab Emirates struggled after the heaviest recorded rainfall ever hit a desert nation. The weather experiment really flooded Dubai, but meteorologists warn that ‘weather wars’ could become a reality after the chaos that Dubai endured afterwards.
A reckless experiment in Earth’s atmosphere caused a desert metropolis to flood.
That was the story last week when more than a year’s worth of rain fell in a day on the Arabian Peninsula, one of the world’s driest regions. Desert cities like Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) suffered floods that submerged motorways and airport runways. Across UAE and Oman, 21 people lost their lives.
The heavy rain of Tuesday April 16 was initially blamed on “cloud seeding”: a method of stimulating precipitation by injecting clouds with tiny particles that moisture can attach to – those droplets then merge and multiply. As the waters receded, however, a more disturbing explanation emerged.
Richard Washington, a professor of climate science at the University of Oxford, has seen the inside of a storm. To confirm if cloud seeding really could breed record-breaking rain, he once boarded an aeroplane bound for a thundercloud over the South Africa-Mozambique border.
“Our mission was to fly through the most active part of the storm, measure it, fly through again while dumping a bin load of dry ice, turn hard and fly through for a final measurement,” he says.
“Apart from the fun of flying through the core of a thunderstorm in a Learjet, I didn’t think much about the time I was lucky enough to be part of that project. Until I heard about the recent freak storm in Dubai.”
What caused the flood?
There are no two identical clouds with which to compare the outcome of seeding, Washington says, so it’s impossible to prove if this technique can change the outcome of a single storm. But by flying a lot of missions, half with cloud seeding and half without, and measuring rainfall between the two, meteorologists eventually showed that cloud seeding did modify rain rates in some storms.
That’s not what caused Dubai’s floods though.
A cumulonimbus cloud. Cloud seeding works – but not that well. Fanw/Shutterstock
“It turns out the UAE has been running a cloud seeding project, UAE Research Program for Rain Enhancement Science, for several years. Their approach is to fire hygroscopic (water-attracting) salt flares from aircraft into warm cumuliform clouds,” Washington says.
“So could seeding have built a huge storm system the size of France? Let’s be clear, that would be like a breeze stopping an intercity train going at full tilt. And the seeding flights had not happened that day either. The kind of deep, large-scale clouds formed on April 16 are not the target of the experiment.”
For Washington, the more relevant atmospheric experiment is the one each of us is engaged in everyday.
“The interesting thing is that humans have a hard time coming to terms with the fact that 2,400 gigatonnes of carbon (our total emissions since pre-industrial times) might make a difference to the climate, but very readily get behind the idea of a few hygroscopic flares making 18 months worth of rain fall in a day.”
The experiment of our lives
A hotter atmosphere holds more moisture, which can fall as rain. Although last week’s deluge was unusual, the Arabian Peninsula does tend to receive more of its precipitation in heavy bursts than steady showers.
The latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did not predict future rainfall trends for the region but did say global heating is expected to make such violent downpours more frequent and severe.
What is likely to kill more people as temperatures rise in this part of the world is not water, but heat. Tom Matthews (Loughborough University) and Colin Raymond (California Institute of Technology) are scientists who study the shifting climate and its effect on our bodies.
Throughout human evolution, the wet-bulb temperature (how hot it is when you subtract the cooling effect of evaporating moisture, like sweat on your skin) has rarely, if ever, strayed beyond 35°C. At this threshold the air is so hot and humid that you cannot lower your temperature to a safe level by sweating. You overheat and, without urgent medical aid, die.
“The frequency of punishing wet-bulb temperatures has more than doubled worldwide since 1979, and in some of the hottest and most humid places on Earth, like the coastal United Arab Emirates, wet-bulb temperatures have already flickered past 35°C,” Matthews and Raymond say.
A thermometer transposed on a satellite image of the Arabian Peninsula. Extremet will threaten lives in the Arabian Peninsula within the near future. Aappp/Shutterstock
“The climate envelope is pushing into territory where our physiology cannot follow.”
Alarmed by how fast we are making the climate unlivable, some scientists have called for emergency measures. Peter Irvine, a lecturer in earth sciences at UCL, proposes dimming the sun by pumping microscopic particles into the upper atmosphere to reflect some of its rays.
Trying to mimic the cooling effect of a volcanic eruption but on a permanent basis (until, presumably, greenhouse gas concentrations can be returned to safe levels) is another gamble with the atmosphere. These layers of gases that surround our planet have nurtured life by keeping temperatures stable and harmful radiation out.
Irvine acknowledges that keeping Earth artificially cool this way is risky, but argues the side effects – like altered wind and rainfall patterns, acid rain and delayed ozone layer recovery – “pale in comparison to the impacts of climate change”.
Catriona McKinnon, a professor of political theory at the University of Reading, has other concerns about attempting to manage solar radiation this way, including the question of who has the right to regulate the global thermostat.
As humanity contemplates another large-scale experiment in our atmosphere, there is another, even bigger one waiting to be resolved. Its solution is simple: stop burning fossil fuels.
Revolutionising Urban Landscapes with GenAI and/or Revolutionising sustainability using a new triplet that is proposed to be made of a system dynamic model as described in this writeup published on Science Direct reiterates the vital need for sustainability in every human endeavour dynamics with “Adaptability, Affordability and Availability” at all times in mind.
The image above is for illustration – Credit: Science Direct
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Revolutionising sustainability using a new triplet: A system dynamic model
By Shahbaz Abbas, Abdur Rehman Bin Nasir Rao, Farrukh Khattak and Yasir Ahmad
Complexity of interdisciplinary systems is crucial for a sustainable ecosystem.
Interconnections between the sustainability triangle has been comprehensively analysed using a new triplet approach/model.
A system dynamic model using 3As (Adaptability, Affordability, Availability) is developed.
Each “A” as a system is simulated to determine its impacting inflows and outflows.
The developed model serves as a tool for the industries to improve system dynamic complexity.
Abstract
The theory of sustainability has been analysed and implemented in various sectors to minimise the consumption of limited resources and to consume the fullest potential of existing resources. The triple-bottom concept of sustainability covers all possible interactions within an ecosystem. However, the dynamic nature and interconnectivity of sustainability systems, such as the environmental, economic, and social systems, are quite complex to curb sustainability challenges. The modification in one system may create disturbances in other systems. Based on the existing studies on sustainability, this study explored how these systems can be optimised by analysing the relationship between each side of sustainability triangle by 3As, i.e., Adaptability, Affordability and Availability, to determine their impacting macro and micro flows. The reinforcement can be achieved between social-environment by adaptability, social-economics by affordability and economics-environment by availability. These 3As synergise sustainability systems if inflows and outflows in sustainability systems are optimised. The system dynamic approach was adopted to model and examine all possible 3As’ inflows and outflows comprehensively in urban ecosystems. Micro flows are analysed for the associated macro flows for each factor of triplet. The results suggest that although sustainability systems are complex but not wicked in nature, it is required to focus on macro and micro flows of adaptability, affordability and availability in each system. This study may serve as a source of information for improving and maintaining sustainability in industries, businesses and the policy makers to optimise their existing resources on this comprehensive triplet model.
The concept of sustainable development has been associated with the Brundtland Commission Report (1987) and has since been at the forefront of the UN’s policies towards sustainable development (World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987). The 17 UN SDGs were developed in 2015 by global leaders as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (United Nations, 2018). The focus of these goals was to encompass environmental, economic, and social factors focused on their integrated approach towards sustainable development across the globe.
Arguably the progress towards achieving these goals has been under scrutiny and criticism for not being able to meet the designated targets (Spangenberg, 2016; Kroll et al., 2019). The criticism for not being able to achieve SDGs as designated has been credited to a diverse variety of factors and challenges. These challenges are addressed as Interconnectedness and Complex Nature (Wu et al., 2022), Lack of Resources (McMichael, 2017; Patole, 2018), Marginalisation and Inequality (Carant, 2016; Freistein and Mahlert, 2016) and Global Cooperation (Florini and Pauli, 2018). Therefore, there is a need to establish new paradigms for achieving sustainable development goals and strengthen the interrelationship between the three pillars of sustainability to foster progress towards the achievement of the SDGs in an effective manner. It will empower a robust, resilient, and befitting approach towards accomplishing the targets of the UN SDGs by systematically enhancing the interrelationship between the three pillars of sustainability, i.e., social, economic, and environmental.
It is worthy to understand that the complex and dynamic nature of the factors involved in implicating sustainability needs a better understanding for effectively accomplishing the targets set by the UN SGDs. The role of the System Dynamic Model (SDM) is integral in visually stimulating the complex system of sustainability and provides a better understanding of developing new mechanisms that unanimously contribute towards achieving overall sustainability without hindering the progress of any of the goals (Honti et al., 2019). For the said reasons, the following factors can be utilised through the development of a robust SDM based on their impact on achieving sustainability:
The scenario-testing mechanism and simulating abilities of SDMs are instrumental in analysing and testing different policies and strategies to enhance sustainability (Bastan et al., 2018). The incorporation of the “adaptability” factor in SDMs will provide a systematic understanding of the changing interventions of various factors in the system and their mutual implications on the behaviour of the system. It will be strategically integral in thoroughly identifying potential policies and strategies that can systematically bear unforeseen changes and effectively withstand uncertainties, leading to long-term sustainability.
Affordability is regarded as one of the most prominent aspects of implementing sustainability strategies (Hoover et al., 2020). SDMs can effectively use simulations to identify the economic feasibility of strategies and policy interventions to provide insight to decision-makers for analysing and identifying the financial feasibility of interventions in the system (Mareeh et al., 2022). It will ensure that the strategies or policies are not only focused on sustainability but are also affordable for widespread implementation to seek long-term sustainability.
The availability of adequate services, resources, finances, and opportunities can be pivotal in the overall accomplishment of SDG targets (Shen et al., 2009; Schwerhoff and Sy, 2017). SDMs can simulate the availability aspect of resources across the system and devise relevant strategies or intervention policies to ensure that resources are adequate for long-term sustainability accomplishment (Pallant and Lee, 2017). In this manner, availability can be traced and analysed through the complex nature of SDGs and subsequently, relevant policy frameworks can be developed.
The study by Wang (2023) provides unique perspectives into the complexities of post-disaster environmental consciousness, highlighting the impact of social interactions and regional environmental variables. Furthermore, Zeng et al. (2022) broaden the conversation about sustainability and resilience in urban areas by proposing important indicators that are critical for assessing and managing risk in rapidly urbanised ecosystems.
The literature supports the association of systems’ ecological sustainability with the application of SDM. Vogt and Weber (2019) challenge prevalent misunderstandings about sustainability, notably in seven aspects, i.e., political, economic, socio-economic, cultural, environmental, theological, and democratic domains. The findings further lead to a deeper comprehension and emphasis on the significance of planetary sustainability ethics and indicates the inclusion of a multidimensional understanding and complex nature of sustainability achievement. Furthermore, the study by Nishant et al. (2020) contends that AI’s environmental sustainability promise rests not only on reducing resource consumption but also on promoting thorough environmental governance, further pondering that implementing AI for sustainability calls for implementing effective approaches like SDM to encapsulate its implementation holistically. Dale and Newman (2009) studied the relationship between sustainability and affordability while focusing on housing projects in Canada and found that affordability is crucial for ensuring that sustainable housing projects become a success, it indicates that affordability is closely grounded in the social and economic aspect of sustainability by offering low-cost and socioeconomic equality-orientated approach.
The studies conducted by Folke et al. (2002), Fiksel (2006), Magis (2010), and Zeng et al. (2022) indicate that resilience and adaptability play a vital role in achieving sustainability and plays a vital role in bridging the social and environmental pillars of sustainability. Furthermore, Chaudhary et al. (2018), Ghisellini et al. (2016), Khan et al. (2022), Wan et al. (2022) showed through their studies that sustainability can be thoroughly achieved with a focus on environmental and economic pillars by ensuring availability of resources and their responsible consumption to ensure their long-term availability, i.e., indicating that availability plays a vital role in strengthening the economic and environmental pillars of sustainability.
The proposed concept of developing 3As model using SDM is novel in nature as compared to the existing literature on systems’ ecological sustainability. Amadei (2021) developed a systems dynamic model based on the dynamics and interconnectedness nature of nexus between sustainability and peace, indicating that peace being an imperative sustainability aspect, i.e., SDG-16, itself has a complex nature, calling for SDM to be applied for understanding varying inflows and outflows that needs to be addressed to achieving sustainability and peace. Furthermore, Chaudhary and Vrat (2018) conducted a study on gold recovery from mobile phones in India using SDM and highlighted the social, environmental, and economic benefits that can be achieved through this approach by providing strategic policy highlights and recommendations to achieve sustainability in India using gold recovery from mobile phones. Similarly, Dural-Selcuk and Vasilakis (2021) conducted a study to assess the sustainability of healthcare systems with regard to population ageing based on empirical data and indicated that SDM can be utilised in an effective manner to promote and achieve SDG-3, i.e., good health and well-being. However, these studies lack potential insights for providing a unilateral approach to understand sustainability from all three dimensions in a holistic manner.
Similarly, the study conducted by Francis and Thomas (2022b) focused on integrating Multi-Criteria Decision Modelling (MCDM) along with SDM for understanding sustainability-orientated policies and decision-making in the built environment. However, the study does not consider the human behaviour aspect and focuses solely on considering the built environment as a physical entity, further indicating a gap for introducing other quantitative factors to ascertain social sustainability through SDM and MCDM. Additionally, the study by Francis and Thomas (2022a) focused on Dynamic Lifecycle Sustainability Assessment (D-LCSA) using a case study of a residential project in India and found that disregarding the dynamic nature of factors impacting sustainability assessment of the built environment results in 50% and 12% error in sustainability and environmental impacts. However, the study only focuses on environmental factors and does not consider the social and economic factors due to non-availability of data and fails to address the gap of undertaking a comprehensive and holistic analysis of sustainability through all three dimensions.
Therefore, introducing another triplet “3As”, i.e., Availability, Affordability, and Adaptability into the existing triple bottom sustainability triangle, through SDM can be a significant contribution to achieving the devised targets set by the UN SDGs to be achieved by 2030. Policymakers and decision-makers can thoroughly seek systematic and in-depth insights from the application of SDM through the lens of the 3As approach towards sustainability to develop policies and interventions that are feasible, resilient, robust, befitting, and equitable, enabling a global and unanimous approach towards long-term sustainable development.
Section snippets
Three pillars of sustainability
Sustainability has become a popular concept in recent decades, attracting scholars and practitioners to ponder for better solutions. There are three pillars of sustainability i.e., social, economic and environmental also referred to as the triple bottom line (TBL) approach. Sustainability is the integration of these pillars in human life to preserve natural sources for the current and future generations. All of these pillars of sustainability are interconnected and each of them is very crucial
Methodology
In order to develop the conceptual model of the 3As model, the conducted literature review suggested that SDM is a technique that is adopted extensively to model the interconnectivity relationships between the dynamic ecological systems components. SDM considers a system comprising a stock(s) and based on the available data of that particular stock, macro and micro flows effecting that stock are programmed and simulated. Ecological systems are dynamic but intertwined, disturbance in a single
Results
The data analysis was grounded in the extensive literature review conducted by the researcher and supported by the application of the SDM. The in-depth analysis of the literature provided compelling insights into understanding the role of the 3As in strengthening the relationship between the three pillars of sustainability. Nevertheless, the findings of the data gathered are provided in Table 4, Table 5, Table 6 for adaptability, affordability, and availability with relevant inflows and
Discussion
This conceptual study reveals that a triple bottom sustainability approach is required to be elaborated based on the interconnectivity between the sustainability triangle components. It is quite challenging to develop innovative solutions for the ecological systems without analysing the comprehensive relationship between the environmental, economic and social aspects of sustainability. Achieving sustainability goals are not justified by just focusing on environmental, economic and social
Conclusions
Sustainability triangle is a niche since the realisation of keeping the natural resources for future generations. Systems claiming as sustainable systems must be aligned with the three components of sustainability including social, economics and environmental aspects. Systems are dynamic and complex, it is required to manage this complexity by a comprehensive model which is not subjective. This study contributes to the existing literature of sustainability science with a new triplet in addition
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
A new first-ot-its-kind green cement plant in Redding, California, has 70% lower emissions than conventional cement production. Fortera, CC BY-ND
Aside from water, concrete is the most-used material in the world, with about 14 billion cubic metres being used every year. Of that, 40% of that is used to build places for people to live.
If you were to pour that amount of concrete to make a paving slab ten centimetres thick, it would cover all of England and about half of Wales. In the US, the same amount would cover the state of New York.
But concrete production releases carbon dioxide (CO₂), one of the greenhouse gases that drives climate change. About 90% of emissions associated with concrete come from the production of Portland cement – this fine grey powder, the part that binds concrete ingredients together, was named after its resemblence to stone from the Isle of Portland, Dorset. Portland cement accounts for 7%-8% of the world’s direct CO₂ emissions.
Production of a more sustainable and cost-effective low-carbon cement, often nicknamed “green” cement, is scaling up. A new plant next to an existing cement plant in Redding, California, will produce about 15,000 tonnes of low-carbon cement every year. This could be used to make about 50,000 cubic metres of concrete, which is less than 0.0004% of the world’s concrete production.
At Redding, materials technology company Fortera turns CO₂ captured during conventional cement production into ready-to-use green cement, a form of calcium carbonate. This could reduce carbon emissions of cement by 70% on a tonne-for-tonne basis, according to Fortera.
A concrete issue
People have been using concrete for more than 2,000 years, by blending gravel, sand, cement, water and, sometimes, synthetic chemicals. It’s used to create everything from paths and bridges to buildings and pipes.
Cement production is an energy-intensive process and the greenhouse gas emissions are hard to cut. When limestone is heated in a kiln, often fuelled by coal, nearly half that limestone is lost as CO₂ emissions.
This happens because limestone (calcium carbonate) breaks down in heat to form clinker, a mix of calcium oxide and CO₂. For every tonne of ordinary Portland cement made, 0.6-0.9 tonnes of CO₂ are released into the atmosphere.
So many industries rely on this material. The main challenge facing the cement industry is reducing CO₂ emissions at the same time as meeting global demand.
So as well as developing new technologies, low-carbon cement production must be established on a global scale to meet infrastructural needs required of economically developing nations.
Low-carbon alternatives
Other ways to reduce the carbon footprint of concrete include using fly ash (a by-product from burning coal in power plants) or slag (a by-product from steel production) to partially replace Portland cement.
However, sources of these materials will reduce as other industries decarbonise. Over time, less iron ore will be used to produce steel as more steel is produced from recycling existing steel, so there’ll be less available slag.
Current strategies for decarbonising cement and concrete rely heavily on using carbon capture and storage technology to capture unavoidable process emissions from cement plants.
So low-carbon cement production doesn’t have to involve replacing every cement production plant in operation. Low-carbon cement facilities can be retrofitted to capture CO₂ emissions released from manufacturing conventional cement. Plants can also use that captured CO₂ within the cement that they are producing or as a product for the food and chemical industries.
In Norway, Heidelberg Materials are building an industrial-scale carbon capture and storage plant at a cement facility that could capture and store an estimated 400,000 tonnes of CO₂ per year – that’s half the existing plant’s emissions.
Greenhouse gas emissions in the cement sector are regulated by the EU’s emissions trading system. This was established to make polluters pay for their greenhouse gas emissions, reduce emissions and generate revenues to finance the green transition.
This legislation has not significantly reduced carbon emissions in the cement sector over the past decade, according to the International Energy Agency, mainly due to free emissions allowances being granted to cement manufacturers.
Despite sustained healthy profits in the cement industry, there hasn’t been enough investment in the widespread uptake of cleaner technologies and the sustainable use of materials. Greater financial incentives could help whereby companies have to pay for emissions associated with the production of cement.
Fortera is the only company directly capturing carbon emissions from cement production to make a pure low-carbon cement binder like this. Fortera, CC BY-ND
As a design engineer, I appreciate that material choice and good design play a major role in the sustainability credentials of construction. Before low-carbon cement technology becomes more widespread, engineers, designers and builders can use construction materials more efficiently and choose products with lower embodied carbon – that’s carbon emissions released during the life cycle of building materials, from extraction through to disposal.
This approach could easily save 20% in embodied emissions associated with new building design.
Some governments could move towards only permitting the use of low-carbon cement. In Ireland, the Climate Action Plan 2024 requires that low-carbon construction methods and low-carbon cement are specified where possible for government-procured or government-supported construction projects.
Could all cement in the future be low-carbon or “green”? How “low-carbon” is defined will play a very important part in how this is translated into practice in the industry.
Retrofitting technology to large-scale existing cement production plants will prove that it’s technically possible to produce low-carbon cement efficiently at scale. With the right incentives in place by governments and the construction sector, almost all cement produced around the world could be low-carbon.
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