.

As major powers scale back their presence at the United Nations’ annual climate summit, Middle Eastern and North African leaders are making a strong showing at COP31. Of the 72 heads of State and government that were expected at the COP31 World Leaders’ Summit, hosted by Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan on 11-12 November, many MENA countries were in attendance with high-level delegations – with the exception of Israel, who was deliberately excluded. Participants included Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Iraqi President Nizar Amedi, Syrian Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, alongside other heads of government and ministries. By contrast, other key players, such as G7 countries, did not send their top leaders, with China represented by Vice-President Han Zheng while the Trump administration in the United States is skipping the talks altogether. Dubbed “the implementation COP”, this year’s Conference of the Parties – jointly held by Turkey and Australia in the Turkish city of Antalya – is focused on delivering on previous, hard-won commitments rather than pursuing “big-ticket” pledges. Its priorities include advancing the energy transition – with an accent s on electrification – strengthening climate adaptation and resilience, reducing waste and boosting climate finance. In a year dominated by “weapons and tariffs”, as Brazil’s President Lula stated in yesterday’s speech, competing geopolitical crises risk diverting political attention and resources needed to deliver on these commitments. For MENA, however, those same crises have reinforced the relevance of the climate agenda. The region hosts major fossil-fuel producers, some with substantial financial and technical capabilities, while also being cyclically exposed to the impacts of climate change, such as droughts, floods and wildfires. The Iran-US war has further highlighted the vulnerability of critical water infrastructure in one of the world’s most water-scarce regions, where desalination plants, themselves exposed to attacks, provide more than 50% of freshwater supplies in several countries. Meanwhile, disruptions to crude shipments and soaring oil and gas prices have once again underscored the risks of dependence on fossil fuels for exporters and importers alike. The environmental toll of regional conflicts has already featured in leaders’ speeches at COP31, with Pezeshkian calling for mechanisms to compensate for environmental damage caused by US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Erdoğan describing the devastation in the Gaza Strip as an “ecocide”. Despite the progress made over the past decades, much remains to be done to address climate change. Against this backdrop, this year’s COP needs to translate existing commitments into practical measures, recognising that, in an era of polycrises, today’s manifold emergencies merely add urgency to climate action. For MENA countries, in particular, this means investing in climate resilience and the energy transition as part of broader efforts to strengthen economic security and regional stability.

Experts from the ISPI network discuss climate challenges facing the MENA region and outline the priorities leaders should address at COP31.

+

MENA’s climate priorities: bridging the finance gap and strengthening adaptation

“The MENA region is among the most vulnerable to climate change, warming at nearly twice the global average rate. Already hot and arid, the region faces growing challenges related to water scarcity, food security, sea-level rise and increasingly frequent extreme weather events, including sandstorms and tropical cyclones. Climate impacts are felt across sectors, from agriculture and energy to urban infrastructure. While climate action is gaining momentum, progress remains insufficient, constrained by competing economic, political and geopolitical priorities. Climate finance is a major concern. According to a UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia report, 11 Arab countries require $570 billion in climate finance by 2030. Yet, over the past decade, the region received only $34.5 billion in public international climate finance, equivalent to less than 6% of its estimated needs. Against this backdrop, MENA’s priorities at COP31 are to strengthen access to international climate finance, elevate adaptation in global negotiations, and ensure that outcomes reflect the region’s specific vulnerabilities, national circumstances and development priorities.”

Aisha Sarihi, Non-resident Fellow, Middle East Council on Global Affairs

Electrification as a pillar for new cooperation

“COP31 in Antalya comes at a critical juncture for the Middle East and North Africa. The Hormuz energy crisis has exposed the region’s structural dependence on fossil fuels, revealing economic vulnerabilities among both hydrocarbon exporters, who face disruptions in shipments, and importers, who are struggling with soaring energy bills and mounting fiscal pressures. If Turkey’s presidency intends to make COP31 an implementation-driven summit, electrification offers a concrete way forward. Its flagship 35-by-35 pledge, aimed at raising electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035, could help turn climate ambition into economic resilience. Yet electrification must be supported by more renewable generation, modern grids and storage: challenges that require affordable financing at a time of geopolitical turmoil. For MENA, COP31’s success should ultimately be measured not only by concrete efforts and pledges to reduce fossil fuel volatility but by making the climate and energy transitions two pillars for regional cooperation.”

Alberto Prina Cerai, Research Fellow, ISPI

Renewable energy investment: aligning climate ambitions with energy security

“Since COP28 in Dubai, enthusiasm for successive climate summits has waned as governments have repeatedly failed to deliver on their pledges. Yet across the MENA region, investment in renewable energy continues, driven as much by economic and energy security considerations as by environmental concerns. For Gulf hydrocarbon producers, expanding solar and wind capacity reduces domestic consumption of oil and gas, freeing up more for export or industrial use. For energy importers, renewables offer a means of reducing dependence on expensive and unreliable fuel supplies. The regional conflict has strengthened these arguments. MENA countries have an opportunity at COP31 to demonstrate that expanding renewable capacity and maintaining oil and gas production are not mutually exclusive. The emphasis should be on practical investment, affordable energy and measurable progress towards existing climate goals. Note for example that BloombergNEF estimates that MENA renewable energy investment reached a record $22 billion in 2025, supporting the argument that investment continues regardless of the COP process.”

Kate Dourian, Non-resident Fellow, Arab Gulf States Institute

Cooperation, resilience and solidarity: addressing climate impacts in the Mediterranean

“The Mediterranean is warming approximately 20% faster than the global average, and the MENA region faces both extreme climate events, such as heatwaves and floods, and slow-onset impacts. These erode livelihoods, aggravate pre-existing tensions and conflicts, and generate huge losses, including from an economic perspective. Tackling this challenge requires a multidimensional approach: renewables must go hand in hand with phasing out fossil fuels and regional cooperation on adaptation, resilience and loss and damage – on this front, the European Union’s New Pact for the Mediterranean falls short and should be strengthened. Concrete measures – such as early warning systems, anticipatory actions by humanitarian actors, instruments tailored to slow onset impacts, insurance, debt suspension clauses and solidarity contributions by key actors like EU, European and Gulf countries – should follow this logic.”

Lorena Stella Martini, Senior Policy Advisor Foreign Policy, ECCO

Tackling loss and damage through more funding and support for communities

“What happens to a farming family in the Nile Delta when saltwater makes its land unusable? Even with better flood defences and irrigation, some families will lose the land they live on. In conflict-affected parts of the Middle East, a flood can force families already uprooted by war to move again. The first call from the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage drew $2.8 billion in requests worldwide against $250 million in available grants. At COP31, governments should make new funding pledges and back simpler grant procedures so local authorities can get cash to displaced families quickly and help farmers earn a living when they can no longer cultivate their land.”

Najoua Zhar, Research Associate and Lecturer, American University of Beirut 

Bringing water diplomacy and transboundary resource management to the forefront

“COP31 offers an opportunity to bring water security and resilience closer to the centre of climate adaptation discussions. With the UN Water Conference taking place in the United Arab Emirates in less than a month, discussions on the climate-water nexus at COP31 can be carried forward and expanded. For MENA, this is particularly important given the impacts of climate change on already stressed water resources and the growing challenges of sharing declining surface water supplies. The Nile, Tigris-Euphrates and Jordan River basins could benefit from enhanced regional dialogues on water sharing, particularly between upstream and downstream countries, to address competing demands and help prevent geopolitical tensions from escalating.”

Mohammed Mahmoud, Lead, Middle East Climate and Water Policy, United Nations University Institute

.

Read more on:

• MED
• Med this Week
• Energy and Sustainability
• Middle East and North Africa

.

.

.

.